Michigan 32, Nebraska 29. Post Game Discussion

[lineygoblue]

Please note that Jeff's prediction is only three points off my own.

I'm not concerned that Martinez is going to drop back in a seven step pocket, and pick M's defense apart with laser precision passes. My concern is that when he drops back, he will break contain, and even if M's DB's are covering well, they'll forget about him, and off he goes. Especially on 3rd and long. M's defenses have a history of playing well on 1st and 2nd down, only to give up a long, drive-sustaining play on 3rd down. That's the kind of play Martinez excels at.

I think M's defense could play well enough to give M a chance, but I can't help but have doubts about the offense's ability to score, and keep the defense on the bench. If the defense gets gassed from chasing Martinez around all night, it won't go well for Michigan.

I'm sticking with Huskers by 7.

And The Wizard will give away free wings after the game.

[WM Wolverine]

I'll defer to FFFF but Martinez only a threat a threat with his arm when given time to throw and he can find his receivers deep, he's also pretty good at scrambling to get that time to throw. Most the time he's getting pressure and throwing a pass not far beyond the LOS...

The key to beating Nebraska is obviously stopping their option and forcing them into 2nd/3rd and long then you want Martinez to throw the ball.

-

Fancy stats has this a closer game then I expected, I don't think it should be close other than the night, road game factor. It really boils down to if M can slow down the option, not give up the big play and at least being even on turnovers. Nebraska will get yardage, sustain drives and hit on a big play or 3 but M's defense needs to limit them to 3 points instead of 7.

M 30 - Nebraska 24

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!! 34 BERT'S BITCHES 17

[froot loops]

This year's Michigan team is simply much better because the defensive coordinator is better. I'm not even sure if he's any good but Don Brown was awful and had people conned. That insistence on man coverage and heavy blitzes is bad strategy when you can recruit defensive players like Michigan can. You try to recruit the stud on defense so you can run vanilla base defenses and kick the shit out of teams.
Their defense is playing like a top defense should play.

On offense, it is still bad but it's gotten the job done. The problem is less about the quarterback and more about the quarterback whisperer. People always complain about the quarterback and Michigan's quarterbacks have been a dog's breakfast since Chad Henne, but it shouldn't be this hard. It feels like Harbaugh's ideal college quarterback is Craig Krenzel.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The key to beating Nebraska is obviously stopping their option and forcing them into 2nd/3rd and long then you want Martinez to throw the ball.

Exactly.

Re Linesman's post:

M's defenses have a history of playing well on 1st and 2nd down, only to give up a long, drive-sustaining play on 3rd down. That's the kind of play Martinez excels at.

This is the problem in it's simplest form. You over-play an option QB on a scramble and he'll hit his receiver as coverage breaks down. Mark this down. If this happens with any kind of regularity, M will lose.

No matter what happens on that score, if Nebraska turns the ball over and M is +1 or better, M will probably pull it out.

Those are the two keys to this game. This will probably be a close game right to the end of the 4th.

[Cody_Russell]

In honor of M vs Nebraska playing this week in somewhat a big game, who remembers the 2005 Alamo Bowl? Heartbreaking... if only Ecker pitched the ball.
I remember being pissed at the refs in that game.

2005 Alamo Bowl - Final Lateral Play: Nebraska vs Michigan

[Tom W]

That was an abysmal game- which was a fitting end to that season.

At this point, I expect better in 2021.

[lineygoblue]

At this point, I expect better in 2021.

I'm still not drinking that Kool Aid yet. I admit, that "better defense" is tempting but I'm not giving in

[Jeff Buchanan]

Brian in his Preview article was pretty confident of a close M win (25-20). Like some of us here we've predicted a close sludge fart game. Brian's take on Neb's special teams is a good one. There not good (128 out of 135 CFB teams). Their punting is terrible as is their punt returns and coverage against opponents. Their FG kicker is not good. They are good a KO coverage.

If this turns into a field position battle like most defensive contests do, M wins that handily.

He also points out that the pressure metric plays in favor of M and against Martinez. Neb has given up a shit ton of sacks and not faced a defense yet that has a nice ability to do that to opposing QB's (caveat Ojabo running into the backfield and out of the play/loosing contain).

Despite Brian's take that M will win, I think the night game, home atmosphere will hurt M in a close game in the 4th. Neb will win on a high variance couple of late plays.

[Hannibal]

No Roman Wilson today. Might be back for MSU.

[Cody_Russell]

I’m starting to feel nervous and bad about this game. Like a gut feeling that Nebraska wins 24-23 on a last second chip shot FG feeling. Their crowd rushes the field and chants “FROST, FROST, FROST!”

The M offense is what worries me.
The news of Roman Wilson being out… that hurts! Wilson has been improving week to week and looked very good vs Wisconsin. Baldwin and Corn Johnson will have to be the guys. I don’t trust Sainristil at all. Henning is still way to raw when it comes to route running.

It can’t be the classic Harbaugh big game where the M offense goes flat. 2015 vs Utah, 2016 vs Iowa, 2017 vs MSU, 2018 vs ND, 2019 vs Penn State (1st half).

Come on, running game! Haskins + Corum!

BLUE PANTS!!!

[Hannibal]

The running game showing up in a game that actually matters is long overdue.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I'm here in the LNK...met a lot of great M fans last nite...so I'm assuming none of you are here...

That said...

HARBAUGH!!! 34 BERT'S BITCHES 17

[Tom W]

Nebraska fans usually bring class when they come up to A2x

And yeah,I would have loved to venture down to Lincoln, but well.. COVID uncertainty.

Put me down as officially ignoring the red flags and BPONE. Martinez will make a couple of scary plays, but Michigan’s QBs and defensive leaders take charge 27-17.

[THE_WIZARD_]

34-17. Bad guys.