Michigan 31 Wisconsin (10)....17 - Post Game Thread

[lineygoblue]

The best indication of what's going to happen Saturday is what happened in the 2nd half against Rutgers.

With Ross out of the game, Rutgers knew he was the signal caller on defense, and they adjusted their offense accordingly. They went the the Michigan D like a hot knife thru butter.

In the 2nd half, Rutgers ond defense decided to take away Michigan's inside running game, no matter what. Seeing this, Michigan did NOT adjust. They continued with the original game plan.

It is so painfully obvious what is about to happen here, I just don't even want to look. ANY problems that Wisconsin has had to this point will be magically gone come Noon EST on Saturday.

[Cody_Russell]

I didn't realize how badly M needs Josh Ross until the 2nd half of the Rutgers game. Ross has been kind of average for his long career at M. This season? Such a key part for the M defense.
Sounds like Ross is probable to play vs Wisconsin. It almost seemed like Ross could have played in the 2nd half vs Rutgers, but the coaching/ medical staff played it safe.

Glad to see Ross finally come along. Ross' career trajectory kind of reminds me of Austin Davis for M basketball. Late bloomer.

[Jeff Buchanan]

More evidence of an impending loss ....... mgo's UFR defense out yesterday afternoon. Seth offers that McDonald appeared to be experimenting with Green in Cover 3. He felt that when it became apparent that Rutgers might beat you, he couldn't put any changes in because the offense was going three and out. I thought that was a good take. WHat bothered Seth was tht it seemed like the coaching staff didn't take Rutgers seriously and approached the game as a practice. Rutgers exploited the open areas in the short outside zones of Cover 3 giving Verdral, a QB who only throws well into those areas, easy throws. Questionable game plan. This view tends to support the thinking that it didn't look like M's coaching staff looked at any Rutgers game film and just did their own thing. Verdral looked much better than serviceable. I see Mertz looking good as well given McDonald's apparent approach.

I don't think M will not take Wisconsin seriously. The problem is that there's a weakness in M's D involving the CBs that McDonald has tried to cover up. Cryst will exploit this.the defense Mertz will look like a Heisman candidate.

Then we have the offensive game plan v. Rutgers. Gattisbaugh are trying to run an RPO/RO offense with zero threat that the QB will (1) get that play call from the sidelines and then (2) successfully read the defenders and keep the ball. That gives the defense a numbers advantage every time. That is what played out v. Rutgers. Cade ran 3 ROs 1 got nine yards even though he made the wrong read - Haskins, because Rutgers had overloaded the side of the play Cade ran into, would have had a big play on the give to the opposite side. It looked like those plays were shelved at some point, Rutgers picked p on that. The way Rutgers deployed it's Ss, M never punished that with the PA as an option to the ROs/RPOs they chose not to run for whatever reasons.

There are just so many red flags with this team. The biggest is this persistent tendency by Harbaugh to fall back on a power run game at the first sign of trouble and/or when he has a lead, even not a very big one. I don't think M has a chance in hell to beat Wisconsin despite their obvious weaknesses that M is not likely to leverage.

[lineygoblue]

I think you're spot-on, Jeff.

I think M will go into Madison with the same approach they used against Rutgers, and Wisconsin hopes they do. Michigan will insist on running the ball between the tackles, NOT because they have an overwhelming OL or RB's. They will plan on doing this because "they're Michigan, and that's what we do". Any passing that McNamara is allowed to do will be safe routes where their fast receivers have to stand still to catch the ball, then start running again. Nobody is hit in stride. TE's are considered ineligible in Gattisbaugh ball.

If Michigan even bothered to look at ND v Wisconsin game film, they'd notice that Mertz cracks under pressure. But, will McDonald pressure him? Nope. They'll play a 'contain' pass defense, and let him sit back there and go 'eeeny-meeeny-miney-moe" until he spots an open receiver, which will be very quick, given Michigan will be playing at least 5 yards off every receiver.

Paul Chryst is an excellent coach and has a fine staff. They don't recruit Top Five classes, but they get kids that play their guts out, and they get the most out of the talent they have. And they have one of the best home advantages in the conference.

This is shaping up to be a terribly embarrassing loss for Michigan. They are the worst 4-0 team in the country, and they've been exposed. Future opponents can't wait to get a crack at these guys.

I think the Badgers easily cover 2 touchdowns.

[THE_WIZARD_]

sandbaggery tomfoolery

[Mike]

It's not sandbagging to suggest Michigan will lose in a place they haven't won in 20 years to a team that has built leads of 35-0 and 35-3 each of their last two meetings.

[Jeff Buchanan]

But, will McDonald pressure him? Nope. They'll play a 'contain' pass defense, ......

My take so far on what I've seen of McDonald's defensive scheme is that in conventional terms, this is a bend don't break defense compared to Brown's. It's also probably a year away from being good at how he deploys it. From both a recruit development and recruiting standpoint.

But that characterization is too simplistic. That's because McDonald's defense is properly characterized as "varied." What that means requires one to read tons of stuff that I might glance at but can't regurgitate or explain it here. Green and opposite him, Vincent Gray, have skills and a good but unproven coach in Clinksdale. In Brown's D, they weren't close to having the skill set they needed to make that defense work. If McDonald does anything significantly different than Brown it's that he runs more zone. Both CBs played that terribly when Brown reluctantly tried it out.

I wouldn't take the Rutgers game as predictive b/c I think Seth makes the point that McDonald was trying zone stuff out with Gemon Green at CB and some new calls for the LBs and Ss in Cover 2, 3 and quarters. It's pretty obvious he was trying stuff out with Dax and he was hot and cold v. Rutgers. It looked raw to Seth. But McDonald's D can bring pressure - we've seen it. It comes from unexpected places. OTH, I think that what transpired v. Rutgers is a red flag with respect to pre-game planning and in game ability to change up when it's necessary. I actually think these issues apply more to the offense and Gattisbaugh's tendencies - well established over time - when it comes to Harbaugh's input. This whole thing about trying to run an option offense without actually playing one on game day is both perplexing and troubling. It becomes more so when, as in M's 2nd half play calling v. Rutgers, there was no attempt to try something other than inside power when the Rutger's defense had numbers advantages in spades.

I'm thinking, but not holding my breath, that those tendencies I note above on offense aren't major factors v. Wisconsin in Madison. The same for pre-game planning that M treated Rutgers as a practice for new stuff. That can't happen tomorrow and it better not have happened during this week's game prep for the Badgers. We won't know until the game unfolds ....... I had pledged not to even watch the game but knowing what I understand now from observes who are much better evaluating a game after the fact than I am that this is a crucial game from the standpoint of evaluating which direction the program is headed. I can stream it in Switzerland and probably will.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Hey now...Ronald McDonald is a legend. He was a great mascot for the chain until he was caught taking liberties with DSL...

[lineygoblue]

We've seen this show before.

Michigan going into Madison with a "good" team = watching M*A*S*H* reruns. We already know that Hawkeye is going to do bad Groucho imitations, Hot Lips is going to get laid, and Klinger is going to wear a dress. Predictable. Its set in stone.

Michigan ain't winning.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Are you and AA related? Or did you do a brain transfer with him like in Young Frankenstein?

[lineygoblue]

I miss Gene Wilder.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Funny...you seem more like a Peter Boyle guy...

[Obi-Jon]

The final spread is W a 2 1/2 point fave with the U/O at 43.5. Think I'd play the Under rather than the spread.


And this will be the first game played at "Barry Alvarez Field At Camp Randall Stadium".

https://apnews.com/article/college-football-sports-hockey-wisconsin-madison-ec88c26e5f4bd87208fbbc566fe9af17

[lineygoblue]

Wisconsin 28
Michigan 13

[klondike]

The difference in this game will be coaching. No surprise there. I just wish UM had defense coaching like Wisconsin does. They somehow are able to contain running games. No matter RO or power. Plus can put maximum pressure on the QB. I'm afraid we'll