Michigan Football, 2021 Season

[iam416]

Player development is, I think, an issue. But when I refer to recruiting I'm mostly referring to M's Ohio State issue. The reality is that OSU is the roadblock to M winning the B10. They've probably had 3 B10 CCG caliber teams in 6 years. That's not bad. But, they just don't have the horses to beat Ohio State -- with the exception of 2016 when Brady Hoke had loaded up the stable. However, M's current roster isn't on the same planet as Ohio State's. And that's a real problem if you want to win anything.

[lineygoblue]

Michigan doesn't have to out-recruit OSU every year to find a way to win.

Michigan's football history is filled with games where teams with lesser talent, beat us.

What Michigan has failed to do is to get the most out of the talent they do have. That is coaching.

For instance, I don't believe that Indiana or Wisconsin have better talent than Michigan. Yet, this year, they both handled Michigan easily. Neither team has out recruited Michigan in the last 5 years. Yet, they win easily in 2020.

No way did MSU have better talent than Michigan in 2020. Yet, .. Rocky Lombardi and his boys made winning look easy. And with a new coach, none the less.

Michigan can beat OSU with the talent they've had, and do have. It has to be coached up, prepared, and motivated to perform on game day. Under Harbaugh/Brown, that has not happened.

[froot loops]

Michigan has morphed into a pure front runner, they have rarely won games as underdogs. You can't win games with lesser talent than a team like OSU unless you have that underdog mentality.

The roster management of Michigan has been an issue since the end of Carr.

[iam416]

Well, I usually put it like this -- in an even coaching situation (development, scheme, game adjustments, etc), the more talented team is favored. How much they're favored by is, obviously, determined by how much more talented they are.

I could be make a pretty good factual case that Ohio State isn't just "marginally" more talented that M -- they're A LOT more talented. So, the question, then is can you hire a coach that makes up that difference against CRD? (or, in the past, UFM). That, to me, seems like really hard ask. You're not going to snag much of a coaching advanatge against those guys, so if you're out-talented, then you're most likely going to lose.

Now, a game could go sidewys and you could win, but those are outliers. Ohio State has lost 4 B10 conference games since 2012. They've out-talented everyone except the 2016 M team. They're 69-4 in B10 conference games (and 5-1 in CCGs).

I think what's hard for people to really grasp is the aggregating affect of recruiting classes. It looks like M is close to OSU in any given year, but over four years the aggregate effect is significant and creates a really big hurdle for "coching" to overcome.

[WingsFan]

Harbaugh contract extension/ Harbaugh clock management

[Tom W]

There's no arguing that OSU has really widened the gap on everybody in the B10+4. They're a superpower on the level of Alabama and the rotating of guest hosts- currently occupied by Clemson.

They have certainly done a great job and have pretty much kept the conference relevant. Be proud and enjoy it - while you can.

The problem is that it's getting really boring for everybody else. It's just not entertaining to watch the Bucks run roughshod over everybody in the conference on the way to the annual meetings with the other big boys.

You kinda need to have somebody to keep you honest- to balance the equation.

[iam416]

Every other year Ohio State has to play in that infernal shithole White Out environment!

And my intent wasn't to pimp OSU, but rather to make the point re HARBAUGH!!! recruiting vis-a-vis his situation -- you know, being in the B10 East.

[froot loops]

It would be one thing if Michigan was only losing to OSU because they were out talented but they were beating everyone else in the Big Ten. Or they only lost bowl games when they faced superior teams. Like if they were a Nebraska style team before the mid 90s. But for a long time now their wins have only been when they are more talented than the other team, but they don't win all those games and they lose nearly every game where they are the underdog. It goes far beyond just talent and its plagued them for 15 years.

[iam416]

Yeah, I meant to expound on that. So, while HARBAUGH!!! has probably had a B10 Championship caliber team maybe 3 out of 6 seasons (but for OSU), his teams have also show little propensity to really punch above their weight (2019 ND excepted) and too often lose to inferior teams. So, I think there's substantial evidence that M under HARBAUGH!!!! won't have a coaching advantage on many teams. When you couple getting outcoached with getting out-talented, you end up with disastrous losses.

Covid spared the program further humilation, but Ohio State and then Iowa were going to beat the bejesus out of that team.

[lineygoblue]

If Covid had not hit the team, they would have showed up for both humiliations. Guaranteed.

Michigan should be beating OSU a minimum of 3 out of 10 years, even in worst of times. They should win in Ann Arbor more than they lose.

OSU should dread coming to Ann Arbor, not look forward to it.

Even in worst of times they should find a way to win in Columbus 2 out of 10 times. Note: since they play in Columbus 5 times each decade, that means at least once per decade in Columbus, even in worst of times.

There is no excuse for the current streak. They should have found ways to win.

[Hannibal]

Bump Elliot beat Woody three times.

[froot loops]

Michigan has not been as talented as they think they are, I've been a Michigan State fan and I can remember may 2 years where the consensus was that Michigan State was the more talented team. In every other one of the 29 matchups it was the consensus that Michigan was much more talented. in those 31 matchups Michigan in 17-14. Either they have a hard time finding good coaching to match the Spartans or they have less talent than is commonly perceived.

[hack]

Seems like there's some minor buzz that this will all be over soon and Harbaugh stays, as some new DC names are surfacing. Dunno. Harder to gauge given that Harbaugh doesn't have an agent to leak his client's name into any conversations, but it does not seem like there's an NFL team at least *publicly* interested. I'd say the longer this goes the better it looks for a fresh start, but perhaps Harbaugh just wants out so bad that we're going to have to wait until some NFL teams make hires before he gives up on the idea.

It's amazing how every coaching search since Carr has been botched, but in a very different way every time. I'd argue that even the '14 search was that. Michigan hired a guy who really wanted to come and was a perfect fit, but with the swim lanes and all that, they somehow even made the easiest hire ever look difficult. We'll see what happens here, but looking like just more self-inflicted wounds.

[Hannibal]

I'm totally numb to the incompetence at this point.

[hack]

Michigan has not been as talented as they think they are, I've been a Michigan State fan and I can remember may 2 years where the consensus was that Michigan State was the more talented team. In every other one of the 29 matchups it was the consensus that Michigan was much more talented. in those 31 matchups Michigan in 17-14. Either they have a hard time finding good coaching to match the Spartans or they have less talent than is commonly perceived.

I think your frontrunners comment is valuable perspective and suggests how to think about what's going on here. I don't think it's talent. The recruiting rankings explain most of why Bama, OSU and Clemson are in the playoff most years, and they also show a very clear discrepancy between the talent in A2 and EL. Michigan's talent level is somewhere between MSU's and OSUs. MSU beats Michigan regularly; but Michigan never punches up like that in the OSU game. I think if you start with that premise you get to the bottom of a lot of what's going on here. (I don't know exactly what it is, frankly, but it's not something measurable and it has at least something to do with institutional culture.)