Michigan Football, 2021 Season

[lineygoblue]

Its usually Michigan on the receiving end of that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Froot said and some other fools here agreed with him

(the rankings in the FPI) are an indictment of their algorithm not a sign of their professionalism versus the coaches.

The AP and Coaches polls are out the participant's asses, basically subjective, eyeball assessments that might actually look at objective numbers, e.g., W/L records, to come up with what fans perceive as a relative ranking of the top 25/130 CFB teams. IOW, the #1 team should kick ass playing the #15 team. Those of us here know that is not a prediction that has a lot of strength to it.

FPI (and other fancy stats that we're talking about here) are not rankings of teams in the same context that the AP and Coaches poll are. FPI and others are predictive systems.

First the FPI is not an "algorithm." Algorithms, as I'm absolutely positive you know, are binary systems. FPI is definitely not a binary system. It uses a Bayesien framework to calculate probabilities. The system measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results. A team’s overall FPI number is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams values, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.

It's certainly not without it's detractors and the point of my post was to offer that as a relative measure of team strength, a completely objective FPI produces a markedly different "ranking" by FPI than the almost totally subjective AP or Coaches polls do. That is not to say, any of these ranking systems have rock solid predictive value but FPI's sole purpose is to calculate probability of select outcomes.

If you just look at Michigan, OSU and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes have the highest probability of winning the conference (49.1%) with Michigan and Wisconsin about the same but only around a 20% chance of winning the conference. My eyeball test thinks that sounds about right and accordingly, they are ranked appropriately within the BT as 1,2,3 by FPI. If you look at Cincinnati and Houston, both in the American Conference and are respectively #1 and #2 there by W/L records, Cincinnati has a higher probability of winning their conference than Houston does but they are #7 and #41 by FPI, not #1 and #2. That is illustrative of exactly what the FPI does - it is not a relative ranking. It calculates probabilities of select outcomes.

[froot loops]

Blah, blah, blah
Your post was directly comparing the superior FPI to the amateurs. It has a 6-4 ISU as the 8th best team. Fools were agreeing with me because that is preposterous.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Big Expectations - a review of S&P, FPI and Sagrin - is one of my favorite diaries at mgo.

As most agree, the capacity of fancy stats to actually accurately predict outcomes is about equal to a coin-flip. It's still fun now that M is actually in the conversation and after this Saturay, MSU won't be. Hard to believe that pre-season no body here, as well as most other CFB pundits, thought may had a ceiling of 8 wins shaded to 9. with an outcome of 7-5 the most likely.

Now, 11d away from M v. OSU in AA, probably for all the marbles in Ann Arbor, well, 1969. I don't refer to it as The Game any longer - it's not. Is there a chance that M gets to Indy. Yes there is even though it's pretty small:

The likelihood of UM advancing to Indy are 32.4% (1:2 odds) per FPI, 26.7% (1:3 odds) per Sagarin Index, and 28.4% (2:5 odds) per S&P+

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/b1g-expectations-2021-week-11-binomial-reduction

[Jeff Buchanan]

Stolen from mgoboard:

The Athletic article linked below (paywalled ) focuses on the stop rate of CFP ranked team Stop rate is simply the % of opponents drives ending in punt, turnovers and turnovers on downs There is also rankings of offensive success rate, % of drives resulting in scores.

UGA and Michigan are the only schools to rank in the top 10 in both categories…so I guess we’ll be playing the Bulldogs in the National Championship game

https://theathletic.com/2961397/2021...-are-climbing/

[Cody_Russell]

That likelihood of Indy stats seems too high for my liking.
- M has to take care of business at Maryland. I would give M a 85-90% chance of winning that game.
- M has to miraculously beat Ohio State. Of course, M has lost 15 of 16 in this so-called rivalry. 10% chance of winning this game at best for M.
- MSU could knock off Ohio State and beat Penn State. Probably a 10-15% chance of happening to me. No Indy trip for M if Sparty wins their last two.

How fun it is to make up percentages not based on stats… but that’s how I personally feel.

[Jeff Buchanan]

How fun it is to make up percentages not based on stats… but that’s how I personally feel.

TBH, Cody, looking at the games as you look at them - and I like your posts - using the stats as a reference point but then letting your emotions, reason and judgement be impactful on your view is an admirable trait that the business world needs more of. Too often, decisions are skewed to rely on statistics not on common sense and a degree of human logic.

There's an obvious parallel in CFB when your dealing with 19-22 year old kids held to dangerously high expectations by fans.

[AlabamAlum]

I give M and their stud QB, Leroy Jenkins, a 32.33 (repeating, of course) percentage chance of making it to the CFP.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan fans get mocked by their rivals when they talk about "Michigan men", taking the high road, anything that tends to set Michigan football above the rest. It's called Michigan fan arrogance Well, there's a reason for that. I know that there are plenty of FBS players who are more than just football players looking for the big paycheck that comes from making it in the NFL. Then there are some who don't care about an education, are thuggish and otherwise disinterested in citizenship. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there are scholars, the 4.0 guys going to business, med or law school after football, the givers of the little time they have after maintaining eligibility in the classroom to community.

This is a great story of a giver of his time and money - Blake Corum who has received $$$ from his rights to NIL bought 100 turkeys with that money to distribute to families in need for thanksgiving. As an M grad, I'm proud of stuff like this. Not paywalled:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sp...ed/8713145002/

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Cody_Russell]

You love to see it. Blake Corum using some of his NIL money for a good cause.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Bo's statue vandalized:

https://www.wxyz.com/news/bo-schembechler-statue-vandalized-message-sprayed-in-support-of-anderson-victims

[Obi-Jon]

Michigan opens as an 11 point favorite over Iowa. Give the points.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Gonna be low scoring. Not sure I'd give 11.

[Jeff Buchanan]

M at #3 in Coaches poll, behind UGA and Alabama at #1 and #2. The voting difference is 1440 to 1408 between Alabama and M. USA is out in front with votes at 1550. OSU is at #7, Iowa at #12. MSU is at #13. M has 4 teams in the top 15.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings

M # 2 in AP.

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll?week=14

I'm trying really hard not to get ahead of myself but who the hell would have thought in August, that M would make the CFP and possibly play for the NC?