Michigan Football, 2021 Season

[AlabamAlum]

WF,

In any season, only one or two bowls ever really mattered.

There was always a small cohort of 4 or 5 teams who had a chance to win it. These small cohorts seem to stay around forever, but they do evolve -slowly- over time. For example, Clemson is in it now, but they weren’t 7 or 8 years ago or so.
Look before the CFP at the BCS: Most BCS Championships: Alabama; Most BCS wins: Ohio State and USC (that era’s Clemson); Most BCS appearances: Ohio State. Those BCS names sound familiar in today’s game.

You see the same stuff looking at teams by the decades. Remember how dominant Nebraska and Miami seemed in the 1980’s? Florida State in the 1990’s? The better the program, the harder it is to push them out and the great teams seem to work their way back into the hegemony after brief absences.

[froot loops]

The previous eras had more conferences and a little more uncertainty. It seems like with the advent of the CFP and the consolidation of the conferences it has winnowed down the viable scenarios to a handful. For you it's great, you keep on winning titles, but for neutrals it's fucking boring. Nowadays there is never a feeling of an underdog ever having a chance.

[Mike]

Re Michigan going forward: Froot, you underestimate just how spiritually dead the program is. Is it rotten. It is decaying. It is dead. We have a mediocre coach who doesn’t want to be here, an AD who doesn’t want him, and a roster with major holes. Above all else, the team has no heart. It’s over. Finished.

[AlabamAlum]

Froot,

Like I said, I don’t really think that there was more uncertainty at all. The short list of teams in an era’s hegemony usually win regardless of the platform of deciding the champion. But people felt the poll system was unfair (“It’s just a popularity contest!”) and they thought the BCS was unfair (“The formula is rigged!”). Now we have a 4-team playoff and people complain about that. When it’s expanded to 8, people will complain and when it’s 16...well, you get the idea.

Most of my life was spent with the polls. And going into the 4 major bowls you usually knew it was gonna be 1 or 2 teams with a real chance at a NC and every now and again, 3 or 4. How often did the 5th ranked team going into the bowls win the NC? I painfully remember once: 1977 (Fuck ND. They jumped #2 Bama after #1, #3, and #4 lost). But still a wild rarity. An outlier.

And I was not -and am- not a CFP fan. I never wanted this and would change it back tomorrow if I could, really. A BCS/Coalition/Alliance system was fine. And whether it is the CFP, The BCS, or the polls, Alabama was usually in the convo through the vast majority of my life.

[froot loops]

That might be right Mike, it wouldn't be the first time something like this happens at a major program. It doesn't mean it's the end or anything, but it might mean a couple years in the wilderness. Harbaugh was the ultimate Easy button hire, those are nearly always fantasies unless it is Nick Saban or Urban Meyer.

If it is spiritually dead and suffers from institutional rot, it might be better to suffer for a few more down years with Harbaugh to make it abundantly clear. I would say the institutional rot and dead spirit might come from the overreliance on what Michigan use to be and not what it needs to be going forward. A lot of what Hoke and Harbaugh were selling has been Bo cosplay, it is more for cheap pop than winning big. It sells even if it doesn't win.

[Tom W]

It sounds like the AD is already assuming that 2021 will be a washout as far as fans attending and they're using that as an opportunity to kick the can down the road for at least another year. if you scream from the comfort of your living room, they just won't hear you. They honestly don't give a fuck about us.

[froot loops]

Between 1984 and 1994 there was only one college that had two championships.

It is a lot less varied now. As a neutral fan it is much more boring. The consolidation of conferences and the absolute watering down of nonconference games combined with the CFP assures us of that. You are not a neutrall fan, the system is setup for you so of course you think it has always been like that you have won 5 times in 10 years, I would want to keep it like this forever if I were you. But as a fan it is incredibly boring. We got some real sizzle last year when LSU was the surprise winner, they came out of nowhere to win their 3rd national championship in 15 years.

[Tom W]

Oh it's become as boring as hell. The social aspects of the game- being among fans and tailgating- are really what's interesting for most programs. If the post-COVID world severely limits these activities, the whole sport is going to be in trouble.

[froot loops]

It bugs me that even if it is logical and rational that the CFP just automatically knocks out half the teams. There is really nothing they can do. When I was growing up there we a lot more conferences and 3 or 4 major powers were independent. It use to seem so much bigger. Now it's almost like there are 4 conferences because the Pac12 is the sick man of the P5. And in those 4 conferences each one has a clear power and they get the majority of the berths.

[AlabamAlum]

Between 1984 and 1994 there was only one college that had two championships.

lol. 1984-1994 is an odd timeframe. Early-middle of one decade to the early middle of the next and 26 to 36 years ago. 8 years of poll champions and 3 years of the Bowl Coalition. And an 11-year window? Anyway. Miami technically had three championships in that timeframe 1987, 1989, and a split in 1991 - add 1983 and they have 4. Add 1995 and Nebraska has 2. Add 1982 and Penn State has two.

Also, the lack of variability will even out over time. We only have 6 CFP champions in the history of college football. It’s way too small of a sample size to be making sweeping declarations. But looking at recent champions, what skews the number for repeats is really just Alabama. Over the last 11 years (since that’s our chosen window), Alabama has won it 5 times (only 2 of those were with the CFP). Only 1 other team has one it more than once during that time (Clemson, 2) - which seems consistent with normal distribution looking at past decades of champions. Alabama is the outlier and that’s really because of Mr. Vanity, Nick Saban. Arguably, the best coach in the history of the game. He will not be replaced and the reversion to mean will unfortunately happen (accept for maybe Ryan Day).

The consolidation of conferences and the absolute watering down of nonconference games combined with the CFP assures us of that.

I do not think that the rearrangement of teams in P5 conferences limits variability of National Champions under the playoff. Also, do you have data about watered down noncoms of the 6 CFP champions and how it has limited variability? Because I don’t see anything particularly about the 6 champions schedules that jumps out to me as a cause.

We got some real sizzle last year when LSU was the surprise winner, they came out of nowhere to win their 3rd national championship in 15 years.

Heh. Two of those three championships were before there was a CFP. Hard to see their one CFP championship as an indictment of the playoff.

But I’m with you. End the playoff. I will subscribe to your newsletter and contribute to the cause. I hate it. Go back to the BCS today.

[froot loops]

Well that era was when I started watching football.

As far as the watered down non conference schedules look at schedules of the 80s.

[iam416]

1. Buchanan - great story about Ron Johnson. I almost wish M wasn't such a fetid suckhole of a program just for you. Almost.

2. HARBAUGH!!!! is an 8-9 win coach. His roster talent is, IMO, on the decline (since Hoke's kids left). He had a great 2017 class, and since then I'm unimpressed. Don Brown's methods for building a defense were disastrous. They'll outscore some teams next year and should still be 8-4 or 9-3.

3. CFB has, and always will be, a blue blood sport. It was previously set up so that a lot of schools could feel good about themselves and a national championship was almost incidental. It was all about winning your conference. But, bluebloods still dominated the conferences. I mean, the B10 was literally the B2/Little 8. Whatever period you choose, variance in winners is fleeting; it's not the rule. Even in the B10 -- Illinois and Iowa go to the Rose Bowl? Then Sparty? That's nice little 5 years that is followed by M or Wisky going every damn year. The CFP just allows for fewer blue bloods to succeed. But, it's always been a blue blood sport.

[Mike]

1984 was the farce that gave us BYU as a national champion because they were the only undefeated team in the country despite never beating a team with fewer than 4 losses and playing in the WAC.

Agree 100% on non-con schedules. Michigan used to play ND AND a mix of Florida State, Miami, UCLA, Washington, and Colorado. I think it tapered off around the turn of the century and morphed into the current format of one legit opponent (depending how good ND is) and the rest patsies. The routine of ND, and two MAC schools is about as exciting as dry toast. I suppose in that regard it represents Michigan’s program perfectly: unimaginative, boring, and ultimately pointless.

[Mike]

And I would submit that a primary reason that the quality and interest in bowl games has plummeted during the CFP era is the players quitting and not playing in them. Michigan had its TEAM CAPTAINS sit out a NY6 bowl against Florida two years ago. That is blasphemous to me. And Higdon wasn’t even an NFL prospect. But this is a byproduct of the massive amounts of money involved in the sport now. Everyone has to make a business decision and I respect that but holy shit does it water down the holiday bowl season when good brand name programs are treating it like fucking spring ball.

[iam416]

Yeah, that's a litte bit of a chicken-egg problem. Were those players sittting out because the CFP has devalued bowls? I dunno. The Orange Bowl seems like it should still be a big deal.

So, off the top of my head, the last 30 years preceeding the BCS (1968-97):

Nebraska, USC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn State, Miami and Florida State won multiple titles. Ohio State, Clemson, Michigan, Washington, BYU, Colorado and GT won national titles in some form. 1984 and 1990 were trash-filled outliers which, mercifully, we'll never get under the CFP.

In 6 years of the CFP, we've had 4 different winners and 11 (I think, again, going from memory) different programs make it.

To the extent this is an issue, The Nick has UAT running like no other program in CFB history. And UFM took Jim Tressel's Ohio State and truly made it into a lesser version of The Nick's UAT. And, unfortunately, Dabo managed to have a run of great QBs that coincided with the total implosion of FSU.

But, AA is correct -- these things are cyclical. But, they're still cyclical only through a certain group of schools. M and Penn State are certainly in that group.

Meh, whatever. This is all basically Froot's veiled efforts to broadside and diminish the heroic efforts of his most-loathed CRD.