Michigan Football, 2021 Season

[lineygoblue]

In 2020, Michigan just simply whiffed on MSU. They thought they were hot stuff after going into Minne-a-no-place and beating the Goofers, so they thought dispatching the Lombardi-led Spartans would be a quick out. Mel Tucker isn't the best CFB coach in America by a long shot, but he figured out that Michigan was sitting fat and happy, and were ripe for picking. A good HS coach could have figured that out. So, they gave the great Rocky Lombardi the thrill of his life, and came out looking stupid.

The season was all downhill after that.

Overtime to beat Rutgers? Really?

[hack]

They thought they were hot stuff after going into Minne-a-no-place and beating the Goofers, so they thought dispatching the Lombardi-led Spartans would be a quick out.

Agreed. After all these years, they still don't get that MSU is always going to play its best game of the year against Michigan. MSU can beat Michigan a few years in a row and still be hungry as ever for another win. Michigan can beat MSU once and then take that victory for granted the next year. Michigan clearly does not want to OWN this rivalry. This is always the way it is. And in Michigan's rivalry in which it plays the underdog role, it rarely if ever musters that kind of effort. It This can't be explained by relative levels of talent.

(But Hoke managed it. We know how he approached that rivalry and how he recruited Ohio. That's not an answer but it's one or two pieces of this puzzle)

[froot loops]

I would say on average Michigan gets in the better recruits so on paper they have should have more talent. But I think the ratings are inflated somewhat because its Michigan. It was clear during the Dantonio years MSU had the better team and more talent even if the ratings did not say that. Michigan was under the delusion in those matchups in the early 2010s that had more talent.

The talent discrepancy was much bigger between the two programs was much bigger during the Moeller and Carr years. You fellas haven't really had a good QB since Henne. Denard Robinson was good but kind of a wild card, there really hasn't been stability at that position.

At any rate I think historical references for any program are less useful nowadays. With the portal, the game has kind of changed. It makes roster management much harder than even 10 years ago and it really has affected Harbaugh. Gone are the days where you try to use the redshirt years to build up the roster and you shoot for these players to start playing in their 3rd year or something like that.

[hack]

Roster management is huge, and a piece of the puzzle. I'd like to see a chart of exits in the past five years. Has Michigan had more? Would be interesting to know. That's a part of the culture element, but another piece of roster management that is not a culture thing but a quantifiable failure is the is the position groups inbalance. When you get past overall rankings and look at position groups, it's crazy and helps explain why Michigan is a frontrunner. Michigan has an overstuffed runningback room and few cornerbacks. It responded to a crazy shortage of DTs by failing to recruit a good one. Maybe you can get away with hiding those weaknesses against most inferior teams, but good ones can attack your vulnerabilities.

[iam416]

Rocky Lombardi attacked one of those weaknesses. I mean....

....they were really, really, bad this year.

[froot loops]

That's really the one thing he succeeded at. In any of the games where he has looked semi decent, he is just throwing bombs. If you play off the receivers at make him methodically go down the field you were going to stop him.

But I'm kind of thinking more holistically about roster management. Part of what is very important abut college football is recruiting many highly recruited players, but some of those players are going to be backups. The coach needs to be able to retain those players for depth, if you run them off you better be bringing in a hell of a lot more highly rated players and you better win big. Harbaugh doesn't win enough and it doesn't seem like players are all that enthused about him when they get there.

[iam416]

Yeah, you're constantly recruiting players -- even on your roster. And I don't think that could possibly be a good thing for HARBAUGH!!!!

[iam416]

And it also appears HARBAUGH!!!! is bringing in a Ravens LB Coach as DC. That's an interesting hire that could pay off.

[froot loops]

Lloyd Carr is not a popular figure in this forum but his players were very loyal to him.

[iam416]

Big picture-wise, I can't recall a HC at a legitimate P5 job or NFL Job or, hell P5 hoops job -- getting, in a sense, publicly demoted. And staying. I don't understand any of it.

I guess, in a Moneyball sense, M has cut salary and perhaps the extended contract will represent good value for M. HARBAUGH!!!! may not be an $8M/yr coach, but he's a goddamn steal at $4M+incentives! That, at least, has some rationality to it even if you have, more or less, conceded a certain lot in life.

But, still....

[hack]

Carr contains multitudes. (In the parlance of our time)

[Mike]

I like Lloyd Carr and believe he gets unfairly dumped on. And for that matter, he's the last Michigan coach who can point to any accomplishments.

[lineygoblue]

Carr did a lot of good for the program, but unfortunately what sticks out like a sore thumb is everything after 2000. His handling of the Henson/Brady situation came back and bit both him and the program hard. He definitely deserves more respect than he gets.

If Harbaugh returns, its my understanding that he doesn't have to sign the extension in order to do so. He's under contract for 2021, so for Michigan to part with him, he'd have to be fired, and the balance of his contract bought out. If he signs the extension, the program is in bigger trouble than its been in my lifetime. We're looking at Vanderbilt territory here.

The Mike McDonald hire for DC is a bit interesting. It has the potential to be a one year thing, if Harbaugh is gone after 2021. I have no idea how it would work if Harbaugh leaves before then.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I just read through Mgoboard like I assume Talent did on the Raven's DC he commented on. Again, lots of fluff and a small bit of stuff worth reading. But most think John is involved and consistent with the Harbaugh family's stick-together approach, that makes sense. After all, Mattison made it to M indirectly from the Raven's staff. OTH, the coach that's been talked about, LBs coach Mike McDonald has, zero college experience and doesn't know dick about recruiting. As Brian comments so, what's new. M isn't recruiting CBs or DTs anyway.

The consensus is that Harbaugh is still shopping NFL interest and could still end up there. That explains why he hasn't signed with M yet..

The options Manuel has framed for himself may include:

(1) Harbaugh doesn't get picked up by an NFL franchise and he's back at M making about 50% of the guaranteed money he made with his last contract with incentives that could push him back to $8m.

(2) Harbaugh's contract that Manuel has put on the table is reported to contain a significantly reduced buy-out making it easy for Manuel to fire him after another shit year, unimpeded by COVID, where M loses to conference foes and gets blown out by osu again. This option includes Manuel planning on punting on 2021, betting on another COVID altered season happening and a program restart for 2022 with somebody like Matt Campbell or others as new HCs.

Both options play the long game and what's going on now, delay after delay with intermittent reports that Harbuaugh or Manuel are doing this or considering that all of them coming to nothing, makes some sense in that context. Does it make sense if M wants to win in 2021? Fuck no so, I remain disinterested. Check back with me in 2021 if M has been coached by Harbaugh (or whoever if JH jumps to the NFL) is undefeated after a full COVID uninterrupted seasons and is hosting osu in AA for a top 5 ranking and a CFP berth. Otherwise don't bother.

[iam416]

CRD is close to completing his Death Star. But, in 2021 it will still very much still be under construction. It would behoove M to beat CRD next season in AA w/ fuck near everyone returning. If HARBAUGH!!! can't do it next year then it's going to be awhile.