Comprehensive Coaching Change/Coaching Search Thread

[THE_WIZARD_]

Do too.

[Tom W]

I'm thinking about others as well. You see it on twitter.

I think that there's also the argument that ``even if he never beat OSU he was performing pretty darn well until this year and he gets a pass for COVID''. That will also have traction with at least some NFL people. I don't agree myself. But if you're an NFL team and not the kind that can atttract a Bienemy, those arguments could be compelling to at least one GM. They'll look at the overall overall and see that he turned around a 5-7 team and was a snap away from the CCG in 16, suffered some injuries and some bad luck, etc. You and me and others know something's been off since '17 -- at least IIRC I think you'd probably agree with me on that -- but we watch a lot more closely and consume a lot more information about Michigan than any GM could ever absorb even in a coaching-search crash course.

I can see the need for cautious thinking, but it's an NFL GM's job to do research, or at least delegate it. It's also an owners job, and their money, to hold the GM accountable. With the national exposure and every single Michigan game on TV, it's pretty easy to see what's going on, and you can't really see the "good" things only. .

[hack]

I think you can. Especially if you're a sad-sack franchise retread yourself as a GM. Or at least I'm hoping that at least one such GM can. It only takes one. I'd bet that many GMs could see this or have a connection to a Carr-faction Michigan player like Griese or Woodson to tell them such. But still, it only takes one to fail to see that. Joe Dumars made four dumber coaching hires than hiring Harbuagh in '20 would be. You can also make the case that OK maybe he's not a GREAT coach like he was once thought to be but as a turnaround specialist to get you out of the wilderness he's bankable.

[iam416]

I think it very likely some NFL team would hire him. That said, the league seems to value offensive genius young guns at the moment, and JH is very much not that.

[Mike]

The Jets are stupid. They might be interested.

[lineygoblue]

I think guys like Bienemy and Saleh are going to be courted a lot harder than Harbaugh.

[Hannibal]

Unsticking this thread since it seems highly likely now that Harbitch is getting an extension.

[Niffla]

Entirely possible this is just hopeful on my part but IMO the easy-way-out thinking for NFL people is to just assume that Harbaugh is better suited to the pro game than to dealing with college kids. All it takes is one foolish team to engage in the kind of shallow analysis and rash decisionmaking we ought to be hoping for here.

(please make it the Lions so I can laugh at them more)

I actually think he might do well with the Lions. Jim seems to be at his best when the bar is low -- like at Stanford and San Francisco. When the bar was low at Michigan, when he took the job, he again immediately outperformed expectations. And then when expectations went through the roof is when the downfall began.

Few teams in professional sports have a bar as low as the Lions, so I could see him doing relatively well in Allen Park. Not three straight NFC Championship appearances well (or even one), but if he elevated the Lions into a sleeper wildcard team for a handful of seasons I certainly wouldn't be shocked.

[Niffla]

Hope that this is comparable to the year Brian Kelly went 3-9 at ND.

Odds are it will be. Harbaugh and the program will bounce back to at least being above average. Which I know isn't the bar we're looking for, but they'll return to being above average to good again.

2015: 10-3
2016: 10-3
2017: 8-5
2018: 10-3
2019: 9-4
2020: 2-4 (would've been 2-7 or 3-6 without the cancelled games)

2020 is the anomaly. Yes, Jim is not good against anyone decent on the road. Yes, Jim is poor against highly ranked teams. Yes, Jim is poor in bowl games. Yes, Jim is property of The Ohio State University. I'm probably even missing a few areas. And before I say this, let me emphasize that I am not a Jim defender at all. Considering the expectations and his salary, he has been a complete failure. 100%. However these days it's fashionable to rag on him as if he's literally one of the worst and most inept HCs in all of college football.

He's still 49-22 overall. 3 of his 6 seasons they finished with 10 wins. The other two (outside of this season) they finished with 9 and 8 wins respectively (mediocre seasons but clearly even in these two disappointing seasons they were still competent). In four of his six seasons they finished ranked in the top 20.

Again I'm not even advocating that he be extended but 2020 was the anomaly, and it's a very safe bet that they return (and probably quickly) to their typical 8 to 10 win seasons under him.

[WingsFan]

it's a very safe bet that they return (and probably quickly) to their typical 8 to 10 win seasons under him.

Yes it is,.... well not 10 wins, 8/8.5 more like it, but I agree.

[lineygoblue]

I think the most likely scenario for this year is that Harbaugh and company will be given a mulligan for the 2-4 - 2020 season, and be kept fairly intact for 2021. Don Brown's fate rests with Harbaugh. My gut feeling is that Harbs will keep Brown for another year. This, of course, is music to the ears of opposing teams/fans.

Even if Warde was to pull the trigger on the Harbaugh administration, I don't really see anyone out there that might be available, that could come in and make the necessary changes. Even though the bar is low on State Street nowadays, any new coach has to consider the amount of drama that would be waiting for them at Schembechler Hall. Its not an attractive situation at all. Any new coach would have to face several factions within the program who would insist that the new staff follow "their" path to success.

[Mike]

Are there still factions? Clearly, there was when Lloyd retired because he was the end of Bo's coaching tree. That was our first venture outside the program in 4 decades. The RR disaster proved that split factions within the program can have a devastating affect while underscoring why those factions existed in the first place. This swung the pendulum back to the "we need a Michigan Man" crowd. Enter the woefully unqualified Brady Hoke. His tenure proved that both sides were wrong. The only thing that matters is hiring an excellent football coach, rallying behind him, and getting the hell out of the way. Michigan seemingly did just that when they hired Harbaugh. He checked all the boxes, not just ties to Michigan but a connection to Bo himself, a sterling resume, and was probably the hottest football coaching commodity on the planet at the time.

For whatever reasons, it didn't work out like we assumed it would. But I would be very hard pressed to think anyone inside Schembechler Hall, the AD's office, or the university administration did anything but fully support Jim Harbaugh. I haven't heard of any backstabbing like when RR was here. There hasn't been a clown show in the AD's office ala Dave Brandon. As far as I can tell the university has been in full alignment unlike we've seen since Lloyd's heyday.

IMO, the biggest impediment to championship-level success at Michigan is cultural. They still believe they have some sort of exulted status because they play for Michigan. They don't ever look hungry unless they are playing inferior competition. They have no edge, no chip on their shoulder. They continually get outworked by equal or better competition and sometimes look downright lazy and disinterested. That's an attitude and culture problem that can be fixed with the right coaching staff. The last few years haven't looked anything like the first two. The 2015 and 2016 teams played like they had something to prove having been part of Hoke's last couple years. I remember the optimism and feeling of certainty that we were destined for greatness. That 2016 team was on a roll like no other Michigan team I've ever seen. Until the end. They will probably keep Harbaugh for the time being but he's never getting back to that level. The entire football program needs a reboot.

[lineygoblue]

Agree with all of that. I think that may be part of the reason Manuel is reluctant to outright fire Harbaugh at this time. Doing so will bring all of the factions out of the woodwork, and all will want "their" guy to get the job. Satisfying those factions is not going to be easy. The choice of Harbaugh at the time, was spot on. All the factions loved the choice. I thought it was great too. For some unexplainable reason, it hasn't worked out.

Manuel has an easy out this year with the Covid shortened season, and can likely get away with leaving things as they are. Avoiding two horrible season ending blowouts helped save Harbaugh's job for now. With those two blowouts, I don't think Manuel would have had any other choice but to show Harbaugh to the door. All of the factions would have wanted him gone.

So, I think he gets a mulligan for 2020, and we'll see what 2021 brings.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've already said this but it bears repeating in the context of Mike's post above ..... the program needs a reboot.

In my history of watching, I don't think I ever saw anything like the series of lackadaisical performance by Michigan's football team that began in the second half collapse to Usc in the 2018 post season. That followed a host of less than stellar but notable for similar collapses in the 2019 regular season and a season ending flailex v. UF in Atlanta. M then opens the 2020 season on the road against a ranked Minnesota team (I know, not that good), wins convincingly and then barely survives against Rutgers going on to shit the bed v. MSU and PSU AT HOME.

This kind of performance is not explainable except in terms that convey the image of a rudderless ship with an incompetent captain at the helm. So, if by "a reboot" Mike means giving the means and the opportunity to do that reboot to Jim Harbaugh, I'm not at all confident M football can emerge in 2021 as a winning program. I have seen good people who stumble and fall get off the mat and if Jim's history is an indicator of his capacity to do that, maybe he'll surprise all of us and do it. That sort of intensity of one's 30s and 40s that allows that though wanes. I think the sun has set of JH's career. We'll likely plod our way though an attempt at a reboot in 2021 hampered by all the red-flag problems we've already identified and then see Harbaugh either retire from active coaching or head back to the NFL.

[Niffla]

IMO, the biggest impediment to championship-level success at Michigan is cultural. They still believe they have some sort of exulted status because they play for Michigan. They don't ever look hungry unless they are playing inferior competition. They have no edge, no chip on their shoulder. They continually get outworked by equal or better competition and sometimes look downright lazy and disinterested. That's an attitude and culture problem

Living in TX for most of my life -- Michigan's football program reminds me a lot of the Texas Longhorns in many ways.