Comprehensive Coaching Change/Coaching Search Thread

[THE_WIZARD_]

Stay the course.

[Hannibal]

I don't know who M's next HC will be, but I'm almost certain that M's coach for 2021 will be HARBAUGH!!!!!!

If we cancel our next two games due to Covid-19, that seems very possible. I can't read our AD's mind though, so I don't know what will happen. I do know that our program is a trash heap with a passionless zombie as the head coach and that the players clearly don't give a shit. Maybe they will give Harbaugh one more year to further wreck the program and drive it into the ground. I don't know.

[Mike]

I don't know who M's next HC will be, but I'm almost certain that M's coach for 2021 will be HARBAUGH!!!!!!

I tend to agree but that likely means Harbaugh gets an extension. It depends on how things are looking on the revenue/contributions front and conventional wisdom would suggest it can't be good.

[Hannibal]

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Warde Manuel will have to get dragged kicking and screaming into a coaching change. I hope that conventional wisdom is wrong.

But it's ultimately why we need for the team to lose in the short term -- to provide clarity and motive for a change.

[Hannibal]

Brian Cook with a great game column this morning...

Pretty obvious where his heart lies now.

Only one picture goes in the history book. We've got the French And Indian War to cover, people! Teapot Dome! William Henry Harrison, briefly! So you've got one image to sum up whatever your thing is. Maybe a couple paragraphs. This is no time for subtlety. Beat 'em over the head with it. Elide various details. Sum up a complicated series of decisions and events with one emblematic Item For Posterity. Accurate? Maybe. Pithy? Yes!

The Item For Posterity leader in the clubhouse for Jim Harbaugh's tenure at Michigan is from Daily reporter Theo Mackie, who set up shop behind the bench in an empty Michigan Stadium for the latest football-type exercise:

The loudest cheers from Harbaugh’s sideline in the second half came on Penn State penalties. When freshman receiver A.J. Henning leapt over a Nittany Lions’ defender to make a highlight-reel catch, Harbaugh had to turn towards a group of players sitting on the bench and tell them to stand up and cheer.

This catch was stunning enough that I momentarily roused myself from my torpor in its aftermath. I am a person who has given up on this coaching regime and is mostly worried that whatever signs of life this team displays will get in the way of hiring Matt Campbell. Persons on the football team are in the midst of a project most of them have spent large chunks of their lives pursuing, watching a game that's still within reach. If Harbaugh has to pull the Jeb(!) Bush "please clap" on them, it's over. Sooner or later, it's over.

------------------------------------------------

The brief explanation that makes the textbook is this: not enough people liked Jim Harbaugh.

I once sat near a former walk-on defensive back at a game during the waning days of the Carr regime, when people were unhappy and getting more vociferous about it. He swore up and down that he and anyone else who played for Lloyd Carr would run through a wall for him. I have no doubt this is true. Carr engendered loyalty that still borders on fanatical some 15 years after his retirement. We had a former Carr OL on MGoRadio last year and tried to talk about Michigan's improved offensive line; he spent the bulk of the segment dumping on five future NFL draft picks after going undrafted himself. Because they weren't like the guys in the old days. ¯\_(?)_/¯

Say what you want about Carr's failure to adapt to modern college football, hidebound dedication to Mike DeBord, and failure to spawn any sort of coaching tree: people loved him. Still do. Not everyone, but most people. Enough people.

I'm sure a number of people love Jim Harbaugh, but the parade of transfers and lateral-or-worse coaching departures, the various high schools at which Michigan can't recruit unless the player in question was raised in a winged helmet madrasa, the coaching fraternity that can't wait to shiv the guy: these are indications that Harbaugh's famously prickly nature hasn't mellowed out like his sideline demeanor has. He is infamous in a profession that is frequently the last refuge of the criminally insane.

When a guy like Harbaugh stumbles, the knives come out and the whole edifice collapses. Harbaugh's proven that if he gets things pointed in the right direction and gets buy in he can take things in the right direction implausibly fast and reach implausible heights. But three NFC championship games in three years was not enough capital to survive one mediocre season with the 49ers. The 49ers axed him so they could promote Jim Tomsula, a career defensive line coach who looked like a cross between Wario and Adam Sandler's character in Uncut Gems. This was the thing 49ers fans were momentarily excited about in the aftermath:

I bought an ironic Jim Tomsula "Bludgeon" shirt like a smug asshole, and now here we are. At some point Harbaugh rubs you the wrong way and if you've got a smidgen of historical success without him, even Jim Tomsula looks like a good idea.

Stanford, though… Stanford was different. The sad-sack Pac-12 program hadn't experienced success since John Elway and was coming off three of the worst back-to-back-to-back hires—Tyrone Willingham, Buddy Teevens, and Walt Harrris—in recent college football history. They were losers. Historic, unprecedented, incredible losers. They craved any level of success and would put up with any level of eccentricity to get it. A titanic upset of USC with a third-string quarterback and pottery major established him as Dear Leader. And nothing would shake that.

That's what Jim Harbaugh needs: losers. The biggest damn losers on the planet. Not people who look on a 9-3 season as a disappointment. People who regard wins as worse draft position.



Harbaugh and the Lions need each other. Michigan cannot stand in the way of the most perfect match heaven and hell have ever yet conceived.

[Mike]

Do yo know what the timing is for season ticket renewals, seat licenses, etc? Wondering if it's possible for the AD to accurately gauge the financial impact of fan disinterest/anger before they need to make a decision on Harbaugh. The Michigan AD's business is bean counting, not football. I massive drop in future revenue on top of the lost gate receipts from this year would probably precipitate change. But, again, that all depends on how hard Warde wants to work for his $1M/year.

[Hannibal]

I supposed that he is getting a feel for that from the big donors. I can't speak for Stephen Ross, but if I were a billionaire donor, I would be making my next check conditional upon Harbaugh getting fired.

[lineygoblue]

The Brian Griese tweet from Saturday night may start things moving toward a Harbaugh exit. People like that are the ones that get the decision makers attention. Griese left no doubt what his opinion was. He didn't mince words. When more people of his status within the program do the same, things will happen.

[Mike]

Hannibal, thanks for putting this list together, lots of great info.

Since Matt Campbell is my top choice I will add a little to his "signature wins" column. He's actually beaten Oklahoma twice: in 2017 as you mentioned but also this year when the Sooners were ranked #4. OU hasn't lost since and have climbed back up to #13 and will likely face the Cyclones again the Big12 CG. ISU lost a heartbreaker 42-41 to OU last year, he has essentially played Oklahoma even.

ISU has also beaten Texas two years in a row which might not fall into "signature win" category but Texas was ranked both times and currently has the 5th most talented roster in the country according to the 247 talent composite. Iowa State is currently 57th.

In 2017 they also beat #4 TCU who was 7-0 at the time, finished 11-3 ranked #9 in the final poll. So in 2017, his second year, Iowa State beat both the teams that played in the Big 12 CG. He also can claim a win against "#6" West Virginia a couple years ago, a team that ultimately finished 8-4 ranked #20.

Context is also important when looking at ISU. They have finished ranked in the final AP poll a total of TWO times in their entire history: 1976 #19 and 2000 #25. Campbell went 3-9 his first season and still has the best winning % of any Cyclones coach in the last 100 YEARS (out of 20 coaches).

[Hannibal]

Campbell seems like a very safe choice, and we likely don't have to unleash the money cannon to get him. I'll bet that we could hire him away from ISU significantly cheaper than what Harbaugh is getting paid. I'm getting warmer on the idea. Fickell is still #1 for me, but Campbell would not be a disappointing #2. I wouldn't have sky high expectations for him though.

[Cody_Russell]

Pay Matt Campbell in the $5 to $6M salary range. ~$2M less than Harbaugh. Then let Matt Campbell hire whoever he can get as coordinators. Pay a premium there. Need guys on the staff that can recruit too.

[Mike]

I'm not sure there's gonna be much discount/savings regardless of who they hire. The bar has been set on what the Michigan head coaching job pays. If I'm Campbell's agent my response to an offer of $5M/year would be: So the guy making $8M/year sucked so bad you want my client to replace him.... at a significant pay cut? No thanks, Texas will come calling soon.

[Tom W]

Do yo know what the timing is for season ticket renewals, seat licenses, etc? Wondering if it's possible for the AD to accurately gauge the financial impact of fan disinterest/anger before they need to make a decision on Harbaugh. The Michigan AD's business is bean counting, not football. I massive drop in future revenue on top of the lost gate receipts from this year would probably precipitate change. But, again, that all depends on how hard Warde wants to work for his $1M/year.

Deadlines keep moving earlier every year. The licenses are usually in the late January-February window, with tickets in late March-April. The current situation is a bit tricky, since this season fell into limbo between the due dates for licenses and renewals. While the licenses got banked, the renewals kept getting pushed out and never actually got a final deadline. If you paid, you were encouraged to roll them over for next year.

So, a lot of people have already paid up for next year. Buyer's remorse, in the form of inquiries over getting refunds (which is no longer an option) might be a more effective (and earlier) indicator than the more passive approach of apathy.

I honestly can't imagine that Warde ISN'T getting a few earfuls already and that he isn't at least considering a change. He's an idiot if he doesn't recognize the issue at hand, and that other options need to be looked at. Fickell, Campbell and a few other coaches need to at least be "gauged for interest".

But, I've never had any delusions that the AD cares what I think, and I base this only on my never expecting to even consider NOT renewing my tickets as part of the Apathy group.

[Mike]

Thanks for the info, Tom. It doesn't sound like they'll have a clear picture of the financial situation by December 20, other than it's bad for various obvious reasons. The timing sucks in terms of the Covid-induced loss of revenue, but good with regard to Harbaugh only having one year left on his deal. My thinking is that you envision what a post-Covid world looks like to the typical fan that regularly buys tickets. Will they have optimism and excitement for a new beginning or hopelessness/apathy if nothing changes? Because for every Tom out there that the AD takes for granted, there's probably a Jeff who has just said fuck it.

[Hannibal]

Make it happen.

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