Maryland @ Michigan CANCELLED Due to COVID

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan football under Jim Harbaugh continues it's march toward irrelevance.

Worth mentioning is that M's Regents and Warde Manuel have until two weeks from tomorrow to do something with Harbaugh or more than the usual number of commits will bail, players with the ability to do so will opt for the NFL draft and recruits that M is in on will decide to go where there is some level of coaching stability...... and you thought things were bad now.

Even with a solid hire, that M's deciders have a poor track record of making, we're looking at 3+ years at best of returning M to a competitive level. That's even a stretch given what we know about M's culture. Expect a long and difficult decade ahead no matter what we find out about Jim's status after OSU.

My take is that Harbaugh will get an extension not the least of the reasons for it being COVID. Franklly, I don't think that should be an excuse but it will be. Good coaches have managed to keep players engaged during this weird season. Does it look like to you that Harbaugh's players are engaged? No matter. I think Harbaugh wants to continue coaching at M and the deciders will give him the chance to do that.

[iam416]

"toward" irrelevance? Seems to me like HARBAUGH!!!! has arrived at irrelevance and his building a goddamn castle there.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan still has cache and will continue to have it. A good coach can build on that. The immediate problem is revitalizing a moribund football program such decline having been fully realized maybe two years ago.

An organization reflects the character of it's leadership. I don't know what's happened to M's leadership and namely Jim Harbaugh but it's not at all clear to me how a guy of Jim's character could have lost his way. It's puzzling. The larger the institution, the more steeped in reputation and traditions it becomes, the harder it is to change direction. It's for that reason, the deciders at M are more likely to elect rehabilitation for Harbaugh - in this case self directed.

College football is a strange animal. Imagine your reputation as a HC and the success of your football program resting on 114 under 21s. Maybe there's more to Jim Harbaugh than we know. I'm just a bystander here watching a ship flounder.

[iam416]

I'm just kidding, Buchanan. If you look back at what I posted after last season, I was very clear that I thought M would take a step back this year. And that was before they lost some of their better players for a variety of reasons. This year was always going to be mediocre (8-4) at best (IMO). I'm surprised they're SO bad, but eh.

The biggest problem I have with HARBAUGH!!!! is that this is year 6. End of story. This his his program. His recruits. His roster. So, it's still on him.

Two quick points (1) I've always said his recruiting is the unknown (I, like everyone else, assumed he was a really good coach); and (2) I certainly wasn't alone in assessing the 2020 team as being meh. So, don't take what I say as shameless backpattery -- most people were in that boat -- and no one was in the boat they're in now.

[AlabamAlum]

I think his first problem, as always in college ball, is recruiting. Michigan is outside the top 15 in total team talent.

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

You really need to be top 10 or better. Gattis was never a relentless recruiter. Don’t know the rest of the staff. Once that’s addressed you look at fundamentals and scheme.

[iam416]

Yeah. I mean, I had post after post about how I was uncertain about HARBAUGH!!!! as a recruiter. He never had to recruit high-end talent at Stanford and compete with the big boys. The response was typically "look at the diamonds in the rough he found at Stanford." Well, relying on the diamonds in the rough strategy is no way to surpass a team that is relying on the diamonds in the open strategy. I knew OSU would out-recruit HARBAUGH!!!! (and, btw, Hoke outrecruited HARBAUGH!!!!). What I didn't see coming was his overall mediocrity as a coach.

In any event, this is what I wrote last December -- I was probably too optimistic in some areas:

I'll say this about M going forward. I like the coaching staff, mostly. I think Gattis is going to be pretty good. They do some pretty good things to create looks. He knew OSU was going to come out and sit back in zone and take away the run, and they torched it for a half. When OSU changed up and started go more man with more pressure, he adjusted somewhat to the running game, but he was really constrained by score at that point. I think Don Brown did a nice job schematically this year to deal with glaring deficiencies at certain positions.

Recruiting-wise, though, they have to own the problems at DT. They have to own the QB situation (which turned out fine). They're going to have to own the OL situation next year (which, I think is turning into a vintage Warriner "low star/modestly higher production" unit -- good for beating Indiana, not so good for beating OSU.

Player development/recruiting-wise, I think they need to better with their WRs. And I think it's worth noting that HARBAUGH!!! signed a monster class in 2017. It had a fair amount of high end talent and a ton of overall depth. 30 recruits. I think 6 started (with McCaffrey eventually starting in 2020). That's not good. The 2018 class was light in numbers and talent and the 2019 class is better in numbers but still light on elite talent. The game on the field on Saturday was, in a lot ways, a matchup of OSU's #2 class in 2017 and M's #5 class. And, I guess throw in two transfer QBs.

I'm not going to shit on any specific players, but the only ones on defense that I'd take for OSU are Hutchinson (in the DL rotation for sure), McGrone (probably 2-deep for now, but he'll be good) and Hill (I guess, Thomas, but he's not starting). On offense, I think Bredesen starts and I'd Runyan for depth at OT. I would also take Nico Collins (he's better than Austin Mack for sure).

Next year is going to be interesting. Let's set aside the transfer portal. With no transfers M loses at least 3 OL and potentially 4 (I don't know what Ruiz will do -- I assume an interior OL will come back). The guys that replace him are not impressive to these eyes. IMO, they'll suffer a big dropoff. They also could lose all of their WRs. And as much as Ronnie Bell looked good, how's he gonna look when he's the only guy you have to worry about? I guess Giles Jackson could develop into a nice multi-purpose weapon. And, I do like their RBs and I do think McCaffrey will be as good or better than Shea.

On defense, you lose some key players, especially in your secondary. If Thomas goes early then that unit is decimated and not likely to recover by 2020. Losing most of their LB corps also hurts (I like McGrone) and it doesn't seem like the cavalry is on its way for DT.

My December 2019 take for 2020 M, Team Number 4,592,203 or whatever is that it's going to be noticeably less talented than the 2019 version. I think that's a very bad look for HARBAUGH!!! in Year 6. I think after 6 years we will still say that the 2016 team -- the team built by HOKE -- was his most talented (and best) team. I think the arc/trend of his recruiting is downward -- he had some very good classes early and now, man, I don't even know. The 2021 in-state class is really good. When I said I'd give him one more year I'd mostly want to see how he does recruiting in 2021. I already know what he can do everywhere else. I want to see if he can reverse the trend and kill it in 2021. He has to get Rocco Spindler. He has to get Donovan Edwards. If he doesn't, then I don't know what to say. And OSU is going to come at them hard. Spindler, especially.

So, the State of the Program as I see it is that they are trending a bit down -- if you look at 2016 as the peak, 2018 as 2nd best and 2019 as maybe 3rd (with the excusable valley in 2017). 2020 is going to be worse than 2019 and maybe worse than 2015, and the recruiting trend line doesn't suggest a huge reversal. And, please note -- I took care to describe recruiting in terms of what M has done recently -- my assessment is independent of the previous discussion -- it's measured against what HOKE and HARBAUGH have done, and relative to those best year -- trending down.

[Hannibal]

Maryland 45
Michigan 24

[lineygoblue]

Maryland 45
Michigan 24

Sounds about right. Followed by a trouncing from whatever OSU puts on the field. Crossover is probably against Illinois or maybe even Minnesota. It would be fitting if we ended against Minnesota, and lost the Jug to them.

Mercifully, there will be no bowl appearance this year so that Michigan's folly will be exposed to a national audience on NYD.

[iam416]

Looks like M is going to spare themselves further humiliation and, in the process, guarantee another year of HARBAUGH!!!!

[Hannibal]

I saw that we are favored by 5. LMAO holy shit take the points. Easiest money that you will ever make.

[Hannibal]

Oh shit never mind. I just saw that it's cancelled. Season's probably done now.

[lineygoblue]

Yep. Officially cancelled.

And, the earliest return to practice would be Monday.

OSU game hanging by a thread.

[Mike]

Info is still pretty vague in terms of cases, rates, etc. I definitely think they want to pull the plug on the season. And frankly, it's for the best.

[Hannibal]

No details, which tells me that this is a probably "BAWK! BAWK! BAWK!!" type situation. Herbie was probably right.

[lineygoblue]

No details, which tells me that this is a probably "BAWK! BAWK! BAWK!!" type situation. Herbie was probably right.

Whitmer's latest shutdown expires on December 9th, which is next Wednesday. Harbaugh has said that in order to be prepared to play, they need at least two days of hitting in pads. I understand that those days are usually Tuesdays and Thursdays. If Michigan has not hit in pads by next Tuesday, the OSU game will be called off. If Whitmer extends her shutdown, I think that would likely get the 'crossover' cancelled as well.