Michigan 49 @ Minnesota 24

[lineygoblue]

I think a majority of the alumni fan base feel a lot like Jeff does. They want this to change, and their patience is on its last nerve. Harbaugh better find a way to win in Ohio, and he better deliver a Big Ten Championship soon, or the heat will be on him worse than anything he faced in San Francisco.

He's got the guys on the roster to pull an upset over OSU. OSU has lost to worse teams than Michigan has this year. Michigan has defeated superior OSU teams before. It can be done. It needs to GET done.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!!!

[lineygoblue]

KETOBUTTERCHICKENWINGS.jpg

[Hannibal]

Fleck has confirmed that some dudes will be out. I haven't seen any insider info though on who it is.

[Cody_Russell]

I’m at the point where I don’t care enough to say “Harbaugh needs to win or is on the hot seat.”
... Which is weird considering I’ve been a big M fan for my entire sports fan life. Not diehard like a few of you guys or the MGo cult.... but a tier or two below that. Enough to have competent knowledge, watch all of the games, and know who ALL of the players/coaches are. I don’t give a shit about recruiting anymore.

All of the big game losing (M 1-15 vs OSU since 2004/ my first sports fan year). Frustrating. Waving the white flag.
College football unfortunately has a BIG problem where a handful on “monopoly programs” own the entire sport. One of those teams is M’s rival Ohio State. M won’t be on that Ohio State, Clemson, Bama, and Georgia tier thanks to being an excellent school by having something called academic standards.

Oh well. At least the Detroit Lions are on an even playing field.
Being a DIEHARD Detroit Lions fan is nice........

[lineygoblue]

Fleck has confirmed that some dudes will be out. I haven't seen any insider info though on who it is.

I doubt he'll release any names before kickoff unless he's required to do so by the conference.

Gamesmanship, and all that

[Mike]

Mike, that was a great post on assessment of talent. I was on top of this last season and baffled if not more like pissed off at Harbaugh. My take is that he has wasted a lot of talent. Doug points out that if your QB play sucks it doesn't make any difference how talented your skill players on offense are. My retort was I've seen plenty of OCs that have managed credible offenses with less skilled by recruiting evals QBs.

I've been watching that 247 team talent composite for a few years now and it identifies the two biggest factors in a team's success and ability to make the CFP (in addition to the overall talent level): QB and coaching. This is not an earth shattering revelation but allow me to demonstrate.

Here is Michigan's talent rank, final record, and final AP rank since 2015 (JH's first season):

2015 - #9 (10-3), #12
2016 - #8 (10-3), #10
2017 - #7 (8-5), not ranked
2018 - #8 (10-3), #14
2019 - #11 (9-4), #18

In 2015 Oklahoma ranked #16 in talent, Clemson was #13. They both made the CFP where Clemson lost a thriller to Bama in the title game. What did they have that was so special? Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson. Who designed OU's offense? Lincoln Riley.

The following year in 2016 Clemson was #9 in talent (closing the gap on Michigan!) and won the natty. What was the difference between the two teams? Wilton Speight vs. Deshaun Watson. There is just simply no overcoming that disparity. The list goes on.... Washington made the playoff in 2016. Why? Jake Browning threw for 43 TDs and 9 picks. It was lightening in a bottle as he never came close to putting up big numbers again but that's a huge year from the most important position on the field. Michigan doesn't get that. Ever. Even if it's fool's gold like Browning.

In 2017 Michigan still ranked higher than both Clemson and Oklahoma while we fucked around with John O'Korn en route to 5 losses and a wasted season. The Sooners have gone to the last three playoffs with three different QBs and all three of them were Heisman finalists (with Mayfield and Murray winning in back-to-back years). Hell, last year's Clemson team was only 2 spots higher than Michigan but... Trevor Lawrence.

If you want to use a comparison for Michigan that could offer the best case scenario it would be LSU. They were always loaded with talent, especially on defense, but never had elite QB play, or even really good QB play. Then they caught lightening in a bottle with Burrow and the result was astonishing. But keep in mind, Burrow was a nothingburger in 2018. 57.8% completion, 16 TDs, 5 INTs. Very Patterson-like. Enter Joe Brady in 2019 to coordinate the LSU passing game and Burrow completed 76.3%!!(WTF), with 60 TDs against 6 INTs. Insane.

So as you can see, its the combo of elite QB play and an innovative/modern approach to offensive strategy.

Now to be fair to Harbaugh, USC and FSU were often in the top 3-5 in talent over this same time frame but they made their own Brady Hoke hires that sank them. More proof that you can't expect to win on talent alone. So Harbaugh is somewhere in the middle. Not great, not bad. His fate, and that of Michigan football, will rest on the shoulders of Joe Milton and Josh Gattis.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Best analysis of where M is in 2020 (forgetting about COVID, of course). If this had been a regular season, your analysis JH's "fate, and that of Michigan football, will rest on the shoulders of Joe Milton and Josh Gattis," is accurate.

I think what is astonishing about the "lightening in a bottle" (CFP berths and NCs) thought that seems to emerge as a result of a combination of great coaching/great QB play QB play combination as exemplified at LSU with the QB Burrow/OC Joe Brady combo, is that its pretty much luck or a twist of fate. Those combinations aren't recruited to by LSU, Clemson, osu or Bama. They emerge, develop and grow. Sure, it takes an eye for HS QB talent, OCs unlike AL Borges and more like ryan day and the combination needs nurturing so credit where credit is due. But, man, you'd think M would have gotten lucky, experienced a twist of fate just once or twice in JH's 5 seasons. Especially since Jim, a QB himself, had a rep for developing Colin Kapernick. Nope. QB play has uniformly sucked. OC's have been more like Al Borges and less like Joe Brady.

So, yeah, Milton/Gattis. We'll see. Not holding my breath.

[iam416]

I remember when Ohio State started Joe Bauserman. Some pretty horrific days. HARBAUGH!!! will obviously figure it out.

[AlabamAlum]

I remember Alabama with Tyler Watts.

[Mike]

Ha. I just looked up his time there. His senior year the Tide went 10-3 and finished 11th in the AP poll. So yeah.... relatable.

[AlabamAlum]

His senior year is a bit misleading. We had a really good team that year. And that was Franchione’s last year.

Before that year, Bama was 7-8 in games he played in.

[Jeff Buchanan]

M's game v. Minnesota is being played in TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Here's Saturday night's WX:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. As far as I can tell there's not a lot of instability on Friday but this changes as another snow event begins to move into the area on Saturday evening and Sunday morning. It's possible the game will be played in cold, windless conditions with minimum snow.

Aerial_TCF.jpg

[Cody_Russell]

Bad weather favors M. IMO.

The matchup of the M running game going again the rebuilding Minnesota defensive front.
Whereas, the defensive front of M is a strength.
The fewer amount of quality passing attempts in this game, the better for M.

[THE_WIZARD_]

stifle