MICHIGAN MEN'S BASKETBALL- '23 -'24 Season.

[hack]

Also, to be clear, BQ is also saying that these scheduling decisions aren't just the conference's decision. Schools have to agree. So if Michigan fails to work the system to its advantage, that won't be a case of the conference being unfair or dictating from on high. It will be a case of Michigan's athletic director, fresh off teh failure to take basic precautions and getting the whole department shut down, compounding his own errors.

Which is why we need to make Howard the highest-paid coach in the conference as soon as possible. Let's reward the competent people with extensions as well as the incompetent. Yes Jwan loves Michigan and all, but he's also a highly-competitive individual who probably would rather have a boss that helps him compete rather than being an obstacle. He continues to pass every new-coach test with flying colors and is going to be a very wanted man in the NBA. I think we have him for another four years, based on the age of his sons. Would dearly love to make it more.

[Hannibal]

Agree we should give him a raise. With that said, I don't think that there's any amount of money that will keep him out of the NBA when that time comes. HIs son might keep him here for a few more years but he could leave before that if he wants.

[Cody_Russell]

Dickinson will have to guard Liddell for at least part of the game. I'd assume they'd stick him on Young when Young is in. If Dickinson is on Liddell then that almost certainly means Liddell will get some easy 3pt looks, which he can knock down. Last night they pulled out Penn State's gorilla -- Harrar -- and EJ hit 2.

Correct.
It will be Hunter Dickinson vs EJ Liddell at the 5. Dickinson has plenty of experience defending a stretch 5, but Liddell appears to be a more athletic than those players (Nate Reuvers, Liam Robbins etc). At the same time, Dickinson probably has the advantage in the post if Ohio State doesn’t double Dickinson. I’m sure those double teams will happen.

Chaundee Brown vs D Wash is a big matchup. When M has played teams with a star G, Brown had been pretty good at playing significant defensive minutes... giving opposing Gs trouble like Carr and Trice.

Very exciting big game. Ohio State usually wins this type of big game vs Michigan in recent years. Football and basketball.
It’s time for M to win it!

[iam416]

One of the things I really like about Ohio State's guards is that they each give you something different. Washington is the best scorer. He can shoot and he can drive. CJ Walker is solid ballhandler that can't really shoot the 3, but he has a really solid mid-range game -- and, best of all, he KNOWS it. So, he doesn't force much. And he's nails at the line which is what you want from your PG. Ahrens is a pure 3-ball shooter and he's been really good. His misses last night were by a hair. Sueing is a pure slasher. He can get to the rim and score. He'll shoot, but he's much better going to the rim. And Jallow is sort of meh at everything, but not really bad at anything, either. He's a good 5th guy. Towns can be pretty good offensively, too. Meechie Johnson has had his moments, but he's still a low usage guy -- I mean, he was in high school two months ago.

Their frontline is their weakness, but they do have guys can that can space the court and Liddell and Young can both score inside. Zed Key has been a nice little surprise, too, but I think he's sort of hitting his freshman wall.

In any event, I think this how The Holt Mann want to construct teams. A long, versatile guard rotation and some stretch players up front. I mean, sure, he'd love to have Dickerson but different-making pivots don't grow on trees.

[hack]

Agree we should give him a raise. With that said, I don't think that there's any amount of money that will keep him out of the NBA when that time comes. HIs son might keep him here for a few more years but he could leave before that if he wants.

Warde's first choice was Ed Cooley, who is 11-11 this year, #72 in Kenpom, and runs the basketball equivalent of a Mike DeBord offense. In other words, do whatever it takes to avoid bringing out the coaching-search clown car: a contract with a clause that keeps him paid as a Top 5 coach in the sport (or whatever threshold). Start naming buildings and streets after him. Rehang the Fab 5 banners and make it a massive party. Anything and everything.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Do you think Ward contributes to or has extended the shit that is M football? Synergy between two incompetents in Harbaugh and Manuel? Hate whatever is going on with M football. Thankful BBall excells despite the incompetence of shutting down a national championship caliber team for 2w. Disgraceful.

[hack]

Absolutely -- Warde just fucked up bigtime on an issue his bosses ought to really care about, if they believe their own bullshit. They just effectively told him there's no accountability and it's OK to cover up when you fuck up.



Holtmann might actually be a really good coach. Recruiting, roster construction and player retention are all open questions, but he's played his cards extremely well this year.

That said, not afraid of efforts to pull Dickinson out of the key. It'll happen. Happens every game. Michigan can live with midrange jumpshots and has the perimeter guys to stick with the distance shooters. He's also half a foot taller and 20 pounts heavier than anyone who will check him, and Austin Davis has a decent enough size advantage himself for his 12 mpg. But, we'll see. Certainly promises to be the best opponent to date. I'd be more confident were this not game 3 after the pause, and on three days rest.

For anyone thinking this isn't a rivalry in this sport, apparently OSU is doing the gold-pants trinket thing now if they sweep M basketball.

[lineygoblue]

In other words, do whatever it takes to avoid bringing out the coaching-search clown car: a contract with a clause that keeps him paid as a Top 5 coach in the sport (or whatever threshold). Start naming buildings and streets after him. Rehang the Fab 5 banners and make it a massive party. Anything and everything.

ABSOLUTELY re-hang the Fab 5 banners. Do it when Crisler Center is allowed to be at full capacity again, and bring back the other four guys on a special night, and make a big deal out of it. Michigan has punished itself long enough for the sins of the past. Its time to move on from all that, and recognize the Fab Five for the great days they brought to Michigan Basketball. All the guys deserve better than what they've gotten for all that. I don't even care if Chris Webber ever "admits" he took money from Martin. Who cares? Its over. Jimmy King and Ray Jackson deserve to be recognized for their part in the Fab Five era, along with Webber, Rose and Howard.

As for Howard, I'm hoping he's the guy for Michigan Basketball that we all hoped Harbaugh would be for M Football. Pay the man, and if he wants to make Michigan his only stop as a HC, then make sure he's compensated appropriately. If he wins big, the NBA is going to throw ridiculous money at him to come away from CBB, but if Michigan is where he wants to be, then reward him for that commitment.

[iam416]

I've listened to Mgo and Brian the last few weeks on B10 basketball, and it's almost like they've never watched this year's OSU team play. The sheer bewilderment at how Ohio State is 18-4 amuses me (some luck is mentioned as well as generally inaccurate summaries of OSU getting "bigs" in foul trouble -- it happened once, against Rutgers at home, that's it). There is an institutional Mgo undervaluing of both Washington and Liddell and general ignorance as to the rest of the team. The "roster construction" canard sort of amuses me, too, given that 9 playes see 10 minutes a game and another 2 are able to give them 5-7 spot minutes against good teams. 7 players average 6 or more ppg and that doesn't include Towns who is a capable offensive player.

The pieces fit nicely into a really solid whole, which, to mind, is the fundamental definition of good roster construction.

But, Brian gonna Brian. Once he has a take, as ill-informed as it may be, that take is etched in stone.

Anyway, I expect M to be considerably above it's expected OE by working through Dickerson all day. And I expect M's perimeter defense to force Ohio State well below it's OE. So, I'd say a 10-15 point win. Givent that the earliest line I've seen is Ohio State -2' -- well, lemme tell ya -- never has a fifth mortgage been more worth it.

[iam416]

So, both teams play below average tempo, so I'd guess possessions may be around 62 for the game. I expect M to be 10% above its standard OE, which would put them around 130. I expect Ohio State to be about 10-15% below their OE. That puts them around 112. Using those numbers, M wins 80-69. That seems like it's in the ballpark to me. Maybe a little high, but margin seems about right.

[hack]

The ``good at getting opposing bigs in foul trouble" argument was withdrawn on the most-recent WTKA roundtable podcast. IIRC that was without admitting it was a reversal of position. Brian also said yesterday that OSU's 3-point defense is mostly luck, and I don't know about that, but he's basing that on analysis from respected folks smarter than him, so he's doing his data-driven thing there, FWIW. He's still right more than he's wrong.

Not sure why noting roster construction would be controversial given this is a conference of centers and your tallest guys are 6-8. I don't think coaches want 9 players averaging 10 mpg. They want a 7- or 8-man rotation. Maybe Izzo does, with his five-headed monster at center.

[iam416]

It was withdrawn re Garza. It's still maintained, I believe, with both Rutgers wins (last week Brian stated he thought Rutgers was better than Ohio State) and the Illinois game.

I'm not sure about the 3-point "luck" -- Penn State certainly reversed that for about 25 minutes yesterday. I also believe KenPom has an actual "luck" statistic which, presumably, is a data-driven account of, well, overall luck. According to KenPom, M is slightly luckier than Ohio State.

And I'm not sure why roster construction=big guy. I mean, I'd rather people just say that -- he hasn't brought in a big guy. Ok. The roster itself, though, works. That seems to be the measure. Villanova cruised to a 2nd national title with Omari Spellman as its big. Two of Thad Matta's 3 best teams featured Dallas Lauderdale as their sole big.

I don't really buy the poor roster construction, poor recruiting, hellaciously good coaching line. You can't coach your way out of bad recruits and bad roster construction. Just can't. You can survive with average recruiting if you're putting together a roster that works better than its parts. You can survive on roster construction issues if you're recruiting 2 or 3 guys who make weak spots irrelevant. But, ya really can't win if you roster doesn't make sense and you're don't have dudes to paper that over. Holtmann is a nice, good coach. He's not a supergenius that can magically will a meh team to 12-4 in easily the hardest conference in the country.

[hack]

He's got one top-50 recruit and another top-100 in the rotation. Looks like his only top-20 recruiting class was the 14th best a few years ago, and from the 18 and 19 classes the top three ranked players have transferred out. He has no centers at all on the roster, and though you say that's no big deal in this thread, I see that in the other thread you've just provided a clear explanation of why this is a challenge.

So I still am thinking that recruiting, retention and roster construction are open questions, but that this is a coach who can play the cards he has in his hand. Or, at least this year he sure is.

[hack]

Do you think Ward contributes to or has extended the shit that is M football? Synergy between two incompetents in Harbaugh and Manuel? Hate whatever is going on with M football. Thankful BBall excells despite the incompetence of shutting down a national championship caliber team for 2w. Disgraceful.

To be clear, though, Warde's just one in a long line of them. Michigan ADs have come from different backgrounds but all do the same shit in the job. They kick the can down the road on contract negotiations and coaching searches (Martin, Manuel), they ignore how other top schools handle things smoothly (Brandon, Martin, Manuel), they fail to keep student athletes safe (Brandon, Manuel). They also all hired some really good coaches for the sports that get less scrutiny. Even Brandon managed that.

So if you bring in different people and always get the same result, IMO, it's not the people you blame. It's the broader stuff.

[iam416]

FTR, I'm certainly not arguing that The Holt Mann is recruiting all that well. His 2021 class is fine and hsi 2022 class is fine. But he's not recruiting great. I do think he's recruiting kids who can do what he wants them to do.

The bottom line is that if he's not good at recruiting AND not good at putting together a roster, then he'll fail. Period. No coach is going to outcoach those two factors. I guess we'll see.