2020 Citrus Bowl Alabama v. Michigan, January 1st, 1:00 PM EST, ABC

[iam416]

[Jeff Buchanan]

The less than zero chance of winning has to do with Michigan achieving two things: (1) Contain Harris so that he is not a dominant feature of an otherwise Saban fall back offense that works to feature him in the absence of Tua. (2) Force Saban to feature Mac Jones.

Against Wisky's Jonathan Taylor and osu's j.k. dobbins Brown absolutely sucked. M's early season, esp. v. Army predicted the Wisconsin game outcome. Versus osu? The O was better and could have kept up barring stupid execution errors but the D looked just about the same .... which, in some observer's view, was scheme related. So, given the concept of lessons learned and that Harris is, by design, Saban's offense, you'd think Brown would take Auburn's approach and sell out to stop Harris. In other words (from Set's FiFiFo Film):

Auburn's gamble was they would rather give up 12 yards on first down for a chance to keep it to zero than bleed 4 every down. Let's take a look at the times they managed to force the offense to give up the ball willingly:

1. Unveil the outside-inside counter to Counter Trey on 2nd and 10 of the first drive. Brings up 3rd and 11, pass batted, field goal.
2. First blitz of the day brings a safety (named Smoke Monday) outta nowhere. Two dump-offs and a false start later it's a 4th and 16 punt
3. Najee trips to bring up 2nd and 11. Two incomplete passes and punt.
4. TE screwup gets an unblocked LB to Harris. Two errant bombs later it's a 4th and 9 punt.
5. Greater TE screwup leads to 2nd & Goal from the 10. A false start, 5-yard run, and batted pass that probably doesn't connect anyway later they have to try a 30-yard field goal to tie it, and miss.

I think this is a good take by Seth and Brown and his players are entirely capable of doing it to Alabama like Auburn was somewhat successful in doing. Seth goes into a lof detail about how Auburn defended the Harris pin and pull. It worked ....... except when Harris, who has elite vision, found holes to run through that he should not have been able to find.

On Mac Jones: Auburn won their game v. Bama with two interception return touchdowns, one of them 100 yards after an under-thrown ball bounced off the running back's back. Luck and stuff and that is going to have to go M's way for M to pull this out. Seth does not think M has the pro-caliber players to deal with all the pro-caliber players starting for Alabama without the officials calling 50/50 plays that advantage M and a whole bunch of luck, something that usually doesn't favor M.

One interesting factor that could favor M is that this is not a Saban offense that demonstrated The Nick had moved into the 21st century of CFB like his Tua offense did but rather it is a:

A Blake Barnett, Jake Coker, Blake Sims, Greg McElroy kind of Alabama where the talent around the game manager is the richest in college football history. Those teams didn't put up 50 points, but even Doug Nussmeier managed to look like a functional offensive coordinator by taking five-star linemen and rolling over anything up to and including elite defensive lines.

IOW, if Patterson and his receivers, along with him actually making all the RPO and Zone reads he needs to make to up his NFL draft stock, M can keep up with this particular, 2019 Alabama offense. It's one that isn't going to put up 50 points but rather something like 35-40. The Gattis offense is entirely capable of scoring that much and more, against an injury depleted, less than Saban like Bama defense in 2019....... but everything has to go just right for M to do that and that's asking. There's nothing in M's 2019 season that suggests things will go just right.

Everything goes M's way: Michigan 38, Alabama 35.

Everything or not enough doesn't: Alabama 42, Michigan 28...... and this outcome is pretty much how I see it.

[iam416]

Auburn is much, much, much better on the DL against the run. And they held UAT to 45 points. With a ridiculous interception in the endzone.

I haven't paid much attention, but if UAT's WRs are playing then M is toast. I mean, big time toast. M doesn't have the secondary to cover anything elite. Not even remotely close. And UAT is elite out the ass at WR. And M's DTs are still a joke.

I think this game ranges from Alabama winning by 1 score or so (37-31) or a shitton 59-20.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't disagree with anything you've said above. But .......

........ Brown implemented a scheme this season that, if it executed properly, makes it hard for an OC to get the mismatches (e.g. a S or LB on Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs III and Jaylen Waddle) required to set up the play for success.

Saban's average number of receivers on passing downs is 2.96 so, he's not throwing 5 receiver, 11 formations out there. His entire passing concept is based on 22 formations and 3 receivers. M can deal with that in a properly executed doubles back-end scheme. Poorly executed, as you describe, it's "big time toast." The trend is towards the poorly executed scheme so, your point is well made.

OTH, things go well and there's a more than zero chance of this game being at least interesting to the point of it being competitive if not a low probability win for M.

[AlabamAlum]

We are a hobbled team defensively and we have a back-up QB.

Most of you people are on crack. Bama may win but it will be close if they do.

[lineygoblue]

We are a hobbled team defensively and we have a back-up QB.

Most of you people are on crack. Bama may win but it will be close if they do.

Nope.

Alabama covers 20, and depending how Michigan reacts to being behind by that much, it could be more.

No. Advantages. For. Michigan. Anywhere. On. The. Field.

Nowhere.

Tom Brady graduated from Michigan a long time ago. Right before that was the last time Michigan gave Alabama a competitive game. Shea Patterson is no Tom Brady.

[iam416]

Buchanan:

If it were 1 or even 2 mismatches, I could see it. M can't cover any of UAT's 3 WRs and they can't stop Harris. At least straight up. That's too much to account for.

M may outscore UAT. Who knows. I was shocked when LLLLLLLoyd outscored Florida. But there is zero way M stopping UAT's offense, IMO.

[Jeff Buchanan]

We need a way to down-vote posts not just like them. If we had one I'd down vote Liney's post above.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, I think your underestimating M's two best corners, Hill and Thomas. Gray is an issue. The Ss in single coverage are issues but in Brown's doubles scheme when the switches are executed properly, that's not supposed to happen.

Hill was injured when the osu game came around. Brad Hawkins left the game at some point. Gray got toasted by osu's receivers and for whatever reason there were not just one, but several pass plays where the coverage was blown because the switch got messed up by Grey or Dax Hill who came in for Hawkins.

If Hawkins and Hill both play and Dax comes in as a nickel defender like he should be worked in, while there's no question that Alabama's receivers are elite, tM's back end is not getting toasted to the degree you think they will assuming the coverage doesn't get blown like it did against osu and Mac Jones is Mac Jones and doesn't have a career day.

[WingsFan]

[AlabamAlum]

If we had Josh McMillon or Dylan Moses or DJ Dale or LaBryan Ray or Terrell Lewis or Trevon Diggs playing on defense it would be huge. There are some injured back-ups behind those starters that could provide some depth, as well.

Kicker Will Reichard being available would be nice, too. Or getting back our only TE who can catch a pass, Miller Forristall, would be great. Or our generational talent QB in Tua...

I could go on, but that's the gist. There is a reason the line is 7 and there isn't a lot of movement. Now, you people can see the crimson laundry and think this is an earlier iteration of a Saban team if you want, but it's just not accurate, and I tire of the attempt to edify; so, I will let you be on this topic. There is no profit in a futile attempt to educate the unwilling.

[AlabamAlum]

Roll Tide.

[WingsFan]

Never seen Nick so happy

[iam416]

We shall see, Buchanan. I know you love M's secondary, but meh. I'm not overly impressed (and I don't the NFL is, either). I don't know where your corners will end up getting drafted, but I think UAT has 3 first round picks at WR. Good luck. And then there's still the issue of your shitass DTs against UAT's OL and Najee Harris. I'm not sure how you help with an extra man against both the pass and the run. I'm sure Don Brown can figure it out.

I really think M has to outscore UAT to win.

[lineygoblue]

Roll Tide.

That's more like it