ohio state at Michigan, Saturday, 11/30/19, Noon EST, FOX/Fox Video

[THE_WIZARD_]

xoxoxo

[Tom W]

It all comes down to "Vulnerability", Gents..

As an engineering project, you study the target, figure out how it works, then determine a way to make it NOT work- you find a vulnerability. Then you exploit that vulnerable spot and watch the whole thing disintegrate and collapse right before your eyes. The fascinating part of this game being played in late November is that you've got 11 games worth of data to analyze and you know at least 90% of what your opponent is capable of doing.

This is probably exactly how ohio approached last year's game. Michigan's approach seemed to be one of playing their strong suits.

I have to got to think that the failure of that approach has stuck in the craw of Michigan's coaching staff and that they've spent the whole season analyzing everything that ohio has done and that have been able to identify a few vulnerable spots- if there are, in fact, any.

I'm not sure that ohio has any vulnerabilities. Although, it might be interesting to take note of the hits that Fields took to his thumb and ankle in the PSU game.

It goes without saying that Michigan has to bring its A-game, needs to collect on (over)due breaks and get competent officiating. With ohio already heading to indy and a path outlined to the playoffs, along with the conference already having its ass called out, one would think that there would at least be some effort towards fairness and balance.

Now, if any of that would matter...

[lineygoblue]

It goes without saying that Michigan has to bring its A-game, needs to collect on (over)due breaks and get competent officiating.

I'm thinking Bill Carollo has already hand picked his favorite officials from Ohio to work the game. Why would he send anyone else, and why in the world would it ever be considered unfair?

[Tom W]

Maybe because this game is Ann Arbor and the Michigan fans have shown (to my pleasant surprise) how to treat corrupt officials?

[Jeff Buchanan]

LOL at the bad officiating meme sinks M. Sure, there's some evidence of critical officiating errors in past games but to speculate it's intentionally designed to screw M and extend that history and speculation into this contest and then, even before it goes down, make it an excuse, is laughable.

Now, you want a similar player to Chase Young on M's D? I give you Josh Uche and how Brown deploys his DEs in combo with LBs and Ss, even CBs to create pressure.

Brown has done nothing to improve M's capacity to defend osu's (passing) offense? LOL ..... you can't possibly have been watching the last 10-12 quarters of M defense.

Let's look at it: Open the link and stop the video as it the starts. Note where both Ss are - one is at 10y, the other at 7y. Then run the video. Brown has at this point in the game forced IU to try to go deep. IU cannot protect Ramsey long enough to do that. Fail. The short passing game IU feasted on scoring it's first two TDs has been shut down by the Ss playing up like you see them here and executing switches or doubles on the primary/secondary receivers on drag and crossing routes.

https://youtu.be/iNA7WfeG7ZQ

In the first video I referenced, the closest S is really not in the box. Brown is still relying on a 4-2-5 or 3-3-5 press formation against 3 and 4 wide receiver, 11 and 12 personnel formations.

Now compare the first video with this image below - which is how M started the game v. IU and IU capitalized on it. Note the Ss are very deep. Brian thinks Brown is running something he either wants osu to see or is practicing something he wants to try v. osu to see if the D can stop IU's run game with 7 in the box running 2 or even 3-Hi a bit deeper than usual on the back end.

https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/image_thumb4%5B3%5D_thumb.png

The alternating 2-Hi and 1-Hi back ends, both of them conceptually able to run press man or zone from are new in 2019 and are designed conceptually to do exactly what they did to IU to osu. Slow the short passing game and force the offense to try to go long. M's D has gotten progressively better at this as the season has gone on. Dax Hill got picked on a bit. It would be nice to Have Hawkins back and I have no idea if he will play Saturday. I recommend spending some time on Brian's IU UFR Defense where he does a better job than I just did explaining the differences between Brown's 2018 and '19 D.

https://mgoblog.com/content/upon-further-review-2019-defense-vs-indiana#read-more

day > Brown or day > Gattis? Don't know. Proof of that thinking will be in the pudding. But Patterson is playing at the same level or better than fields in the last two games. M's receivers are > than osu's. CB and S play on both teams are about equal, IMO. All things considered and based on the last 2 games for each team, M's passing game > osu's.

The tough part of this game for M is going to be stopping dobbins running inside without bringing a S into the box. Having to bring a S into the box opens M's D up to day's/field's excellent short passing game. M can only double one to two receivers of 3 or even 4 possibles and doing that produces mis-matches with guys like Olave on a LB. Dwumfor and Kemp had a good game against IU's Stevie Scott. dobbins > Scott but not by much running inside. IU's interior OL probably < osu's but more likely a toss-up. So, as I've said, dobbin's ability to run or not v. M's front 7 is key in this game.

The weather has improved a bit from yesterday's fcst. Probably a little drier. Not a soaker. Moisture still present but not expected to be heavy. What's called "wrap around moisture' funneling into SE MI from the low to the S is harder to predict and can produce locally heavy rain in spurts.

[iam416]

If Uche is similar to Chase Young, Dobbins isn't much better than Stevie Scott and OSU's interior OL (the strength of their OL) is a toss-up with IU's interior OL, then this game is going to be a bigger blow out than I even imagined.

The tough part of this game for M is going to be stopping dobbins running inside without bringing a S into the box.

You're eventually getting there. By gametime you'll be saying the same thing I did right out of the gate. Save yourself some time. I know what I'm talking about.

[iam416]

Also, Seth is way wrong about KJ Hill. He is not a burner. He correct about Olave. Olave is the only OSU WR that could get snaps for M.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, it's a matter of degree between osu's interior OL and IU's ..... a wide degree of better in osu's case.

I also thought Seth's take was off a bit. I commented that I thought he over-did the dobbins threat v. M to the edges. dobbins looked good v. PSU because Franklin runs a pretty standard 4-3 front and doesn't use his DEs in combo with LBs and Ss at all like Brown does. I would think if day were going to attack M with dobbins, it's going to be inside.

From what I've seen dobbins has way better vision that Stevie Scott but they are similar in build, speed and power. Allen went right at M's interior with Scott, got nothing after Brown adjusted to it not withstanding that IU is much more a pass to run team than osu is. So, nod to dobbins in day's offense.

It's not clear to me that fields is 100%. Seth notes that day's offense depends on alternating the outside run threat dobbins provides with the inside threat fields presents when he keeps. Will day throw a potentially injured fields (ankle > thumb) into the center of M's defense in a game that is for pride with two possibly three important games ahead on the road to an NC? If he chooses to protect him by limiting his carries osu's offense is going to be waayyy different.

[iam416]

Some quick facts:

Shea has never lost a home game.

A coach has never started 0-5 in the OSU-M series.

M has never lost 8 in a row to OSU.

Ryan Day has never beaten M.

[maxreturn]

Liney you seem to be a terrific guy and if there was a Mount Rushmore for this particular board you'd have my vote to be on there, but....

Sometimes your posts really sap the optimism out of me ????

Primo Niffla!

[WM Wolverine]

Some quick facts:

Shea has never lost a home game.

A coach has never started 0-5 in the OSU-M series.

M has never lost 8 in a row to OSU.

Ryan Day has never beaten M.
-

So, you're saying Ryan Day is due; gotcha.

[maxreturn]

I remember thinking there was no way OSU was gonna lose in 2009 (and 2008, 2010). Heh.

I saw that retort coming. LOL. Seriously though, It has been a decade or more since I haved sensed the potential for an upset. Overwhelming sentiment for the favorite coupled with an underdog that is clearly trending up and is playing at home.

Happy Thankgiving everyone!

[iam416]

I believe 2 of the last 4 games in this series have been upsets. So, upsets definitely happen. Granted, they weren't HUGE upsets, but the betting favorite still was beaten straight up. That's soon to be 3 out of 5.

[iam416]

Will day throw a potentially injured fields (ankle > thumb) into the center of M's defense in a game that is for pride with two possibly three important games ahead on the road to an NC? If he chooses to protect him by limiting his carries osu's offense is going to be waayyy different.

If you're asking this question then you don't understand how Ohio State approaches this game. And, as an aside, they have very definitely need to win to (a) ensure that they make the CFP; and (b) keep the #1 seed so as to avoid a semifinal matchup with Clemson death star.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Look, this talk of M beating osu is just silly. Emotion is inappropriately influencing perceptions, facts be damned. Mr Rogers is doing the same thing M fans are doing - preparing ourselves to not suffer another winter of despair. osu fans, OTH, have a slightly different basis for their defeatist talk ....... an interruption in their dominance of Michigan and their ascendancy to elite status in modern CFB history would be intolerable to them.

Why? osu fans are completely devoid of humility. They are the Ghallagers of the CFB world - in victory gleefully standing over the corpse of the teams they defeat and Michigan in particular.

FUCK osu.