Michigan at Indiana, Saturday, 11/23, 3:30 EST, ABC or ESPN

[lineygoblue]

If Michigan would have had to play this game after the Wisconsin game, I'd have made the Hoosiers about a 8-10 point favorite.

However, since the 2nd half of the Penn State game, Michigan has been trending toward improvement, instead of regressing, which has happened more than once during Harbaugh's time here.

Last week's dismantling of MSU was a continuation of the overall improvement of the team, in my mind.

However, I wouldn't put it past them to lay back a bit after the win over MSU, and fall into the hands of a determined and well-prepared Indiana team.

I think there will be some hangover from the MSU win, combined with the determination of a very good Hoosier team, that will keep this game much closer than it should be, but I'm hoping that the edge Michigan is now showing in talent, will carry over into this game.

Michigan 24
Indiana 20

[Jeff Buchanan]

No, it's a valid narrative. I could have and should have been more specific e.g.,

1-6 on the road against ranked opponents

and, to make matters worse:

0-4 against Ohio State
1-9 vs. top-10 opponents

IU is arguably a Top 25 (i.e., ranked) opponent. They made an appearance in the AP Top 25 rankings (#24) before losing to PSU and dropped out being replaced this week by VaTech. His overall road record at M is actually pretty good. It's against ranked teams, on the road, that M sucks ..... and that shitty record spans three coaching regimes. When Harbaugh beat MSU in EL last season that win snapped a 17 game road losing streak against ranked opponents for M.

In 2019, Harbaugh has lost both road contests to ranked Wisconsin and PSU. He needs this road win v. a marginally ranked IU to prove a point, several of them in fact, a bit more than you might think he does.

[Jeff Buchanan]

FFFF IU Offense is up. Seth takes a dimmer view of Petton Ramsey and his OL than I did. He's way more tuned in than I am so take these comments FWI.

IU's tackles aren't great and neither is the interior who are large, unquick men. The run game suffers. Allen has Ramsey doing dink & dunk throws because his deep ball isn't great but the offense will do that repeatedly sucking coverage up then, watching for coverage busts by aggressive Ss and go deep. IU had 5 big completions over 40y v. PSU doing that. I suspect we'll see these plays called up frequently v. Brown's aggressiveness even though said aggressiveness has been markedly toned down this season.

Very spready offense with lots of 11 personnel/4 receiver formations w/flex TEs out of 12s. This is an almost all pass offense because the OL is apparently not up to the task in the run game. Penix was the run game and he's out. IU has a quality set of receivers even without Whop Phylor and no one knows if he will play or not. He's on IU's game day roster. His under-study isa also a player but not at the smae level as Phylor. Ty Fryfogle = Nico Collins in both size and skill set. Opposite him is the ever present Nick Westerbrook another NFL caliber receiver with DPJ's size but isn't getting a lot of targets this season.....mainly becasue Ramsey's short game is wayyy better than his long game.

In his preview, Seth thinks M will handle the O but it's going to be an annoying game with a chain moving short passing game and the occasional big play bomb in IU's package.

[WingsFan]

Im still riding high off the Sparty win. I guess me and Dantonio have one thing in common, its our Superbowl. IU always play us tough, just good enough to lose, the OTs. We 'should' be able to pull away for a close win in the 4th. Though this could finally be the year we lose to them.

[WM Wolverine]

"IU had 5 big completions over 40y v. PSU doing that. I suspect we'll see these plays called up frequently v. Brown's aggressiveness even though said aggressiveness has been markedly toned down this season."

I suspect the same but with less results as that is PSU's weakness and a relative area of strength for M...

IU's defense is pretty bad though not sure Shea will take advantage as much as he should, still see 30+ points as likely as long M holds on to the ball which will be plenty enough to win. 38-17 sounds pretty close, 35-21, something like that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I stole this from the Weekly Narrative at mgo but it fits this series just about perfectly. i.e., Wylie Cyote (the Hoosiers) is constantly planning and executing the means to blow up, crush with boulders, or use various Acme products to kill Roadrunner (the Wolverines) but never quite does it, usually blowing himself up in the process.

Cyote.jpg

[iam416]

Why do M fans think IU views them as a huge rival or something? IU thinks of OSU are more of a rival and they think of neither of them as much of a rival. They've also been about as close to beating OSU over the past 5 years as they have M. Whatever.

[lineygoblue]

Why do M fans think IU views them as a huge rival or something?

Well, for me, it was listening to their coach. He sees Michigan as their 'big' game and has been selling that to his team since he arrived. They seem to play that way as well. The last three games have all been decided late, and one went to OT. This is big for them.

[iam416]

[WingsFan]

But, yeah, everyone circles the M game.

Correct

[maxreturn]

You can just say shit, sure, but you know me. You have to have a basis for saying it here. My prediction does. Your's doesn't.

Road Shea isn't going to be good.

Trends at some point or later are broken. I'm going out a limb and saying that Shea's performance last week carries over to this week and breaks the trend of sub-par road performances.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Trends at some point or later are broken. I'm going out a limb and saying that Shea's performance last week carries over to this week and breaks the trend of sub-par road performances.

That would be nice but, no.

The way MSU deployed it's pass defenders in the face of what should have become apparent to MSU's defensive coaches was a perfect set-up for Patterson to excel. There weren't ANY adjustments. MSU stubbornly continued to play it's quarters defense but had Ss 15 yards off the LOS and all the DBs in what can only be described as very loose coverage. Last season, the Ss would have been in any nearby reciever's grill and doubles would have produced thundering hits. That is gone and not likely to return to MSU.

Oh, and never mind that the game plan was tailor made to account for Wilikes at DE..... MSU's one danger man. He had one TFL, ONE. Otherwise he was invisible along with any pressure on Patterson. IOW, he had all day in a game plan that mostly relied on quick, short throws.

He was good though. His best game at M in all kinds of measures but MSU's passive defense in the face of the first exhibition of Gattis' speed in space thing helped him out. IU's D will be a bit more challenging and the weather isn't looking particularity good for a wide open passing game. Harbaugh's more likely to feature the run as that should be productive v. IU's D and in cold, windy and probably wet weather.

[WM Wolverine]

^

Yeah, those short passes were open early for Shea and Sparty never made any adjustments. M receivers blocked really well for alot of yards after catch. I came away really unimpressed with Spartys defense, which explains their five straight losses.

[hack]

I too think that that game is best characterized as being a game played at home against a bad team with a weakness very easy to exploit. Shea still threw a lot of balls that were catchable but not accurate enough for YAC.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Brian's UFR was particularly revealing with regard to Patterson's performance.

Patterson.JPG