Michigan at Indiana, Saturday, 11/23, 3:30 EST, ABC or ESPN

[Niffla]

Hack since you on whats the deal with the Pistons forum IM me plz or respond dead/ moved?

It was fitting I thought that the Piston board died the night they blew that lead in Charlotte on that buzzer beater to fall to a dreadful 4-9

[hack]

Absentee owner who refuses to relinquish control had to be called and shaken into action. Expecting it to be back up soon, and we've got to finally do something about this at some point as well.

[Jeff Buchanan]

M has moved to -9 as the bettors jumped on board IU as a 7 point dog. At Oddshark the predicted score is now M 33, IU 27 and the OU is 53 with 84% betting the over. I think 84% of O/U bettors are wrong. This isn't going to be a shoot out.

I looked all over for an NFL scouting report on Peyton Ramsey and couldn't find one. But, his play v. Patterson's is key to this game. Secondarily, and I'd bet Liney would agree, whoever wins the contest at the OL and DL level will have a huge impact on the game's outcome. If M's OL gives Patterson the time he needs, usually a lot, to survey his choices, and his receivers get open, M will win. If not, well ........

Tom Allen and his DC have made massive improvements in IU's D from previous seasons where IU's D was laughable. IU's rush D is averaging just under 140 ypg (#46). Pass D is #10 at 176 ypg. Looks good for IU bad for M, right? Maybe not. Take a close look at FEI Defense. IU ranks #71 and that has a lot to do with their schedule v. bad opponents where they bagged stats but didn't do well in their 3 losses to good opponents. IU tends to give up a lot of first downs and TDs on a per-possession basis.

My read is that occurs because their DC, Kane Wommack, runs a base 4-2-5 scheme but does a lot of things with it that resemble what Don Brown does with his base - it's aggressive .... C1, man on the back-end with lots of blitzes from weird spots on the field. The downside for IU (and for M) is that it leaves uncovered and exploitable areas in the passing game. If the pressure doesn't get there against a QB with a hot hand, trouble. IU got crushed by osu and lost in closer games to MSU and PSU - all of these teams have very good to good QBs. IU's DL has a very decent Sack Rate on standard downs (#35) but not on passing downs (#68); their OL ranks in the top 15 in protecting against QB sacks on both standard and passing down. Woof.

I was glad to see the offensive brain trust at M decide they weren't going to try to run v. MSU but instead exploit the shitty play of their LBs and DBs in pass coverage (MSU ranked #71 in pass D). Will Patterson be placed in a position to excel in his pass game v. IU? Ask me again after the game but, this isn't going to be an easy team for Shea to pass against like MSU was given what we know about him and IU's pass D. If he plays poorly like he has tended to do on the road, and the IU D is set up to make that happen, the offense is going to struggle. I think we'll see more emphasis on M's run game to try to protect Patterson in this one so, get ready for M's sludge fart offense to try to run the ball and control clock. In this context, watch for how Gattis brings Patterson along early with a passing and option game secondary to a power run game but nonetheless hugely important. Gattis needs Patterson to make plays through the air or with his feet. We saw how M's offense flourished when it got into a rhythm behind Patterson's pass and option game. If IU is able to tame M's passing game by screwing with Patterson's reads while getting pressure on him, and contain Patterson keepers off the RPO/ZR, M isn't going to be able to run the ball much.

I'll say this again. This is a very hard game to predict a score in. M has looked like shit on the road but primarily on offense. The D has been a more uniform performer in it's road and home games. I'm not confident M can score 30 in Bloomington against a pretty good IU D playing its last home game of 2019, Senior Day and a lot to prove. I feel good though, that Don Brown and his D can keep IU's offense under 20. So, barring -2 turnover margin for either team, I'll go with something like M 26, IU 18; a win but, an uncomfortable game with both teams looking shaky on offense, from start to finish.

[iam416]

It's full throttle HARBAUGH!!!, dude. M is going to drill IU. I'll say 38-17. More winning. More cruelty.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You can just say shit, sure, but you know me. You have to have a basis for saying it here. My prediction does. Your's doesn't.

Road Shea isn't going to be good.

[iam416]

I guess. I mean I could dress it up with truisms like whichever teams gets better QB, OL and DL play will win. IU can't handle M's defensive skill. IU can't do much to slow down M's run game and they certainly can't match M's WRs.

[hack]

History tells us that the team that wins the turnover battle should also control the LOS and must block and tackle better than the other team.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I think the game plan for HARBAUGH!!! every week is to score more than the other team does. HARBAUGH!!! says that gives them at least a 50/50 chance every week.

[lineygoblue]

60/40

[THE_WIZARD_]

captain obvious.jpg

[hack]

I think the game plan for HARBAUGH!!! every week is to score more than the other team does. HARBAUGH!!! says that gives them at least a 50/50 chance every week.

That's just what he tells you. He doesn't want to overload you with information.

[lineygoblue]

For The Wizard: ..

[THE_WIZARD_]

...wipes a tear from eye...

[Jeff Buchanan]

The UFR Defense MSU was up yesterday afternoon. Some things seen their v. MSU apply v. IU ....... and I'll flesh out why talent said this: IU can't handle M's defensive skill, when I asked him on what basis did he assert, M is going to drill IU. I'll say 38-17.

First, the UFR demonstrated some coverage blips by primarily and uncharacteristically Josh Metellus. The Ss are key in the "doubles" coverage scheme Brown is running this year (read Seth's neck Sharpies for details). Basically, the backside D is making it hard for the QB to determine who's getting doubled and who is in single coverage. Lewerke couldn't capitalize because he is a very average QB that the offensive coaches have simplified his reads, like, he has one. If it's not open, run it. Also, MSU's OL is the worst in recent memory so pressure. Ramsey is going to take advantage, if the Ss make them, of mistakes in assignments for the doubles coverage and statistically IU's OL is very good in keeping Ramsey clean/giving him time to make the reads.

Brian questioned why the CBs almost exclusively lined up v. their receivers with outside leverage that is trying to force the receiver away from the sideline when it was clear that using inside leverage and making Lewerke through to the sideline (back shoulder fade) is harder for any QB to do. You give Ramsey a chance to throw the ball inside when the single coverage is outside, he is going to make that easier throw every time.

On M's run defense and why IU won't handle M's skill on D. We know that M's run D is good but at the start of the season everyone was questioning the interior DL's (Kemp and Dwumfor at DT) ability to do that. What Brown has done is he has emphasized the role of the DEs - and he has four very good ones in a tough to beat rotation of Paye, Danna, Hutchinson and Uche - in slowing the runner down at the LOS and having the LBs - also very good - clean up. It's not a flashy run D with a high rate of TFLs but this approach squeezes ball carriers inside only allowing small gains usually less than 3 yards. Brown has traditionally fielded defenses with excellent edge control. This years is no exception. Teams are not getting outside with much success at all and the reason for that is the quality of the Vipers, in this case Hudson, and the speed of the LBs (in this case McGrone). IU will be up against it in their run game.

If I'm Tom Allen, I'm looking for S coverage busts in M's complex back end defense with 4 or even 3 man pressure from the DL - another thing Brown has done in 2019 - reduced the number and frequency of 4/5 man rushes. Ramsey is a much better QB than Lewerke. He actually makes his reads in 3 and 4 receiver plays. MSU had some decent plays where they bunched 3 receivers and presented the threat of a 4th from either a TE or a RB before the snap. Doubles coverage schemes demand that the D guess on who the first second and third targets are going to be and assign coverage accordingly. There's going to be a guy open and if the QB makes and has time to go through his reads and find him, it's going to be a big play. Lewerke has one read. If it's covered he runs. MSU's OL is also terrible. Ramsey will make the reads and his OL will give him time to do that.

Brian thinks M's D can contain Indiana's pass O based on the single coverage skills of Hill and Thomas at CB ...... if, most of the time, the Ss make the right doubles decisions. We will see, IU get open leakers in the shape of TEs and RBs. Good film study on IU's tendencies factors in here, i.e., who's the most likely 1st and 2nd read and which one of those guys needs to be doubled. Not having Whop Phylor available, if reports are accurate that he suffered a concussion, helps out tremendously in this guessing game.

I still don't think M's O will score more than 30 but I do think the D holds IU's O below 20 and possibly well below it. So, this will be a game where, if the D is true to form, the O has to deliver the win by playing mistake free, efficient footballing on the road. If that happens and M wins, the narrative that Harbaugh doesn't do well in road games changes..... an important sub-plot in this particular game.

[iam416]

So, it seems we arrive at roughly the same conclusion but in a different quantity of the English language. You're more a long the lines of 27-10. I think M's offense will be fine.

The only thing that I find amusing is that a road win against IU will change the narrative. I mean, maybe, but if you need to beat IU on the road to change the narrative then the narrative must be pretty motherfucking bad.

In any event, HARBAUGH!