Michigan State at Michigan, Saturday, November 16th, Noon, EST, FOX/Fox Video

[WingsFan]

I know

[Jeff Buchanan]

I spent some time going through the Maryland UFR Defense (Offense is pending) and the FFFF MSU Offense. Aside from some troubling chunk plays from McFarland, the defense overall played well. Dwumfor got doubled a lot and this looked like Maryland's plan to get McFarland the gaps he needed. He didn't hold up well and McFarland found them. You can expect MSU to try do likewise to get their pretty good Fr. RB, Elijah Collins going ..... but they'll fail. That's because MSU's OL is a disaster. I said earlier I was waiting for some scouting reports on the MSU OL and the current ones are not good for. I suspect Dwumfor and Kemp will be just "guys" which is what they both are doing decent work v. MSU.

Lewerke, OTH, is going to be running for his life. Which he seems to be good at. Against Maryland, it's pretty clear that by this point in the season, Brown has fully implemented zone defense and compared to the first 4 or 5 games, has the execution of it down. QBs throwing to them and receivers running routes can get confused. Reportedly, Lewerke isn't great at making reads and, like what we think Harbaugh did with Patterson, Dantonio makes Lewerke's reads simple by cutting the field in half, having a designated receiver and if covered, pull it and run or RPOs that are runs all the way ..... where have we seen this.

If you're reading about all the concussion controversy with Lewerke probably suffering from one v. Illinois and not getting properly checked out and then continuing to play, one has to ask, and I'm asking, why is he even lining up? Fact is, and the speculation mounts, that he won't. Lots of reading between the lines on how MSU and Dantonio are talking about this suggest they know they screwed up, Lewerke is, after the fact, in a concussion protocol and won't play. I have no idea if he will or won't.

If Lewerke is out, MSU gets Rocky Lombardy and the disaster continues. I'm supposed to feel bad about this? Fuck no. If M can score 70+ points on a Dantonio coached football team then, do it. Of course Harbaugh won't or he tries and the offense can't. That will piss me off more for going to this game and sitting in snow covered bleachers in 30 degree temps itching for a crushing defeat of MSU that ushers Dantonio out the door to face deposition and subsequent federal charges over the shenanigans he's very likely tied up in.

BTW, the field has been cleared of all snow and, according to reports, the piles of it on the sidelines and end zones will be trucked out. Not sure about seats but the main access raps will also be cleared.

Just looking at MSU's offense and matching it up with M's D, I don't see any way, on paper, that MSU can score a single point ..... on paper. That's because MSU still has tools in it's toolbox that Dantonio does a very good job of putting to good use. They are mostly in a run game that might feature Collins and, if he plays, Lewerke who runs a good bit and is good at it. He extends drives and especially against defenses who, like Brown's does, try to kill the QB on third and long. I suspect I will have additional anger while freezing my ass off watching Collins gash the interior of M's DL or Lewerke sprint down the boundary sideline, step out of bounds and get hit by Hudson or McGrone who will then draw a PF for a late hit OOB. MSU can move the chins, extend drives and score when you combine this sort of shit with MD's ability to find ways to manufacture big plays with some Houdini call and Harbaugh's tendency to respeckt opponents and/or try to sit on a lead and the possibility of an upset is there ...... possibility.

Sure, it could happen but the chances of it happening are small after I looked at the FFFF piece at mgo. At my last post on the possibility of the game being decided one way or the other in the last few plays of the game and some bizzare event deciding it, I gave that a 68% chance of happening. I'm going to drop that to somewhere in the low 50% chance mainly on the basis of this: no matter how good MSU's defense might be holding M's offense in check, I don't think the MSU offense can score more than 10 points and M's can score 24+ even on a bad day v. most defenses that aren't elite and MSU's isn't. If they can't at this point in the season then both IU and osu will beat Michigan and I won't feel bad, at all, about it realizing M football is what it is and will likely remain like that for a good while.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I said this above before I read the UFR Offense v. Maryland:

........ no matter how good MSU's defense might be holding M's offense in check, I don't think the MSU offense can score more than 10 points and M's can score 24+ even on a bad day v. most defenses that aren't elite and MSU's isn't. If they can't at this point in the season then both IU and osu will beat Michigan and I won't feel bad, at all, about it realizing M football is what it is and will likely remain like that for a good while.

After reading the UFR that demonstrated Shea Patterson is bad for the offense M wants to run, I really question M's ability to score more than 20 v. MSU. Brian on Shea Patterson:

First this: After a season of nonstop RPO hype Michigan threw a total of three in this game, one of them from McCaffrey. I think we've got a lot of evidence Patterson's processing speed is preventing Michigan from running what Gattis clearly wants to run.

Then This:

With no upward trajectory and Michigan all but deleting QB reads from their offense I don't see a whole lot of hope that Patterson pulls out the game of his life against OSU.

Brian has been no fan of Patterson throughout the season but the numbers and the film don't lie. It's sad and frustrating to watch what is happening with the 2019 football team. It is average at best I'd rank M's offense behind osu, PSU, Minnesota, Wisconsin and in a tie for badness with Iowa. Never thought I'd see this but it's here and its the result of numerous inexcusable missteps, all of them detailed in posts within this forum, by HC Jim Harbaugh.

So, my advice is look at it like I've tried to do and achieved some success in doing it ....... learn the X's and O's of offense and defense and enjoy watching how they play out, or don't, on a play by play basis. Football is hard. It's both a physical and mental challenge and this is especially true as the game has gotten a lot more sophisticated and complex, with a lot more demands on the players, in the last 8-10 years. Keep in mind the players are 19-23 year olds for the most part and very few of them will learn enough about their position, develop the skills or physical attributes to advance to the NFL. As hard as it is to do, just sit back and enjoy the game.

[iam416]

Don Brown fixing to fuck up Ryan Day.

[lineygoblue]

http://247sports.com/college/michigan/Article/Michigan-Wolverines-Football-updates-Jim-Harbaugh-Willie-Taggart-Florida-State-coaching-search-138587543/

Former FSU Head Coach Willie Taggart was spotted at Yost Ice Arena tonight sitting with Jack Harbaugh during the hockey game. Rumor is he's staying in town for the MSU game.

Maybe Taggart is being considered as a 'first in' when/if coaching vacancies occur?

Taggart has a long history with the Harbaugh family. He played for Jack at Western KY, then assisted Jim at Stanford.

[WM Wolverine]

That's what some of us have been saying, JB, about Shea Patterson and this offense since week 2. He can't make the most basic RPO reads which is the key to running Gattis' offense and more the reason M's offense has looked like poop than any other. Everything starts with the RPO read and works from there, opponents knew Shea was terrible at this and were crashing down in running situations.

[iam416]

For a dual threat QB, that seems like a rather significant flaw. But, it also explains almost everything. And that's been the explanation I've been riding with for awhile, now.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Notwithstanding Occam's Razor I find it hard to accept Patterson can't make basic RPO reads. I watch the same film everyone else does and it seems he misreads the guy who he is supposed to read. If you agree with Brian's analysis in his UFRs there'sno question about it.

Alternative explanations do exist. Most of them revolve around the question of what play is called in and by whom? Is Patterson actually given the run or pass option or is the play call set to be a pass or run.

I believe there are significant questions about sideline organization and who's really running the show on offense. How does one explain, for example, the blatant misuse of the receivers in the offense that's put out there? Questions abound on the sequencing of run plays? The offense makes little sense at the macro level if you compare it to Alabama or PSU.

So, it could be Patterson but what he showed v. Maryland wasn't at all consistent with the passing accuracy he's demonstrated in the past. Or, it could be a disorganized, less than effective coaching staff. It certainly could be a combo of both and I suspect this.

Bottom line is it really doesn't matter because M's offense is just inexplicably bad given the talent that's there.

[iam416]

Patterson being at fault is the best possible explanation for M. If it's not him, then it's systemic and you have a REAL problem. Patterson will leave. HARBAUGH!!!! will not (and Gattis is there for a little while, too).

[lineygoblue]

My soap-opera read this morning is that Gattis may have already given Harbaugh his notice that he'll be moving on next season, hence the reason why Willie Taggart is in Ann Arbor this weekend. Gattis may have told Harbaugh that he'll finish the season but will be moving on afterward.

That's just my take on the appearance of Willie Taggart.

[hack]

I agree that Patterson clearly cannot see the field and make the right reads when the passing game is involved. But the head coach is a guy who has not been afraid to replace a starter in the past. If Patterson is this bad, and McCaffrey is available and seasoned and all, this suggests that the problem may not disappear next year. We'd have more data if McCaffrey had been available the whole year. At this point, maybe you figure you ride it out with Shea, but if McCaffrey weren't hurt in Madison, maybe they would have made the switch?

[WingsFan]

I think so McCaffrey has a serious concussion, he even went back home to Colorado for 2 weeks.

[Jeff Buchanan]

My take is that its probably a 60/40 proposition ....... 40% is on Patterson and part of Patterson's problems involve multiple OCs, questions on who actually is the OC, multiple styles of plays and play design, just, overall a shitty thing for a QB with Shea's alleged skill set to develop in. He hasn't developed. Whose fault is that? His or the system he's been playing in for 2 seasons.

The other 60% involves those questions above and they are on Harbaugh to have figured this out. It astounds me he is into his fifth season and M football's offense remains incoherent with bad QB play predominating. So, yeah, it's systemic and is a REAL PROBLEM going forward. I'm resigned to it. Questioning the value of all the timer I spend with it, the cost of going to games and the exasperation the entire endeavor causes.

[Tom W]

It's just an observation, but if you work with someone for a few years and their performance becomes increasingly disorganized and confused, then there's a bigger problem at hand.

I wouldn't necessarily characterize the first four years, at least up to the debacle in Columbus, as particularly incoherent. Bad breaks, back QB decisions and flat out being less talented than the opposition could explain almost all of the frustrating losses in that time frame.

This year is different. Players are underutilized, in game management is particularly poor and preparation just doesn't seem to be there. This is what makes what happens tomorrow so much more interesting. It is probably the most important game of the year (forget osu- they are on a different talent level).

Michigan SHOULD win this game- decisively. I'll venture to say that they MUST win this game. If Harbaugh cannot design a robust gameplan and put the right pieces in place to execute it for THIS game, then he really shouldn't be coaching this team anymore.

[hack]

Shortest/best game preview I've read so far