Michigan @ Maryland, Saturday, 11/2, noon, ABC/ESPN 3 Video

[WingsFan]

Harbaugh passed Moeller in wins today

[Kstat]

Regret Giles returning that for a touchdown which allowed Harbaugh to turtle up and be ultra conservative. No killer instinct to attempt to score on every possession. Harbaugh's content even with a slim lead. M is also back to 1-2 personnel on almost every snap with McKeon back full strength, which imo is part of the problem.

Analytics have shown us that 3+ receiver sets is the best to run the ball. The more defenders you bring in the box, the more potential guys who can blow up your run play.

[Hannibal]

Dylan's first pass reminded me of the gay guy's javelin throw from Revenge of the Nerds. He's a better QB than Patterson but arm strength is an issue. Patterson still pretty much sucks.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I should note that 3+ receiver sets are overwhelming better to run the ball.

Yeah, this is a problem. I really don't get it. This 22 and 23 personnel fronts just aren't succeeding in creating the unfilled gaps that the offensive brain trust seems to think this approach is going to generate. Part of that is that the TEs aren't making their blocks if it's OZ play. The lack of the IZ or the variations of inside power didn't 't seem to be clicking today either.

Blitz ball defenses that bring 5+ guys on the regular on standard downs - an excellent tactic because M has a shitty 3rd and 6+ conversion rate - works. That's probably because DCs figure Patterson is not really a threat to hit big throws on first down and if you get him in 3rd and long, he and his receivers just can't be trusted to convert. That goes hand-in-hand with reluctance on the part of whoever is making the play-calls to throw on standard downs. It gets easy to defend M's run game under these circumstances.

I think someone at mgo did an analysis of M's run game out of 3+ receiver sets from the gun or pistol in 2018 (and they did little of this then, maybe the same if just a tiny bit more in 2019) and YPC was something like 1.5 - 2 yards more per attempt. There was also a good deal of criticism for M running RPOs that were really runs all the way with 3 receivers at the goal line - a waste of that play if thee ever was one. So, head-scratcher or maybe we just don't have a clue. Favor that we actually might in the collective as consensus on the inter-web starts to emerge on this subject.

The only thing I can think of that makes any sense is that while the run play design out of these formations - and this creating lots of gaps is a signature Harbaugh thing - may make sense on paper and may look good during practice week, but DCs are on to it and simply bring enough defenders into the box to take risks and fill the gaps that M tends to predictably go to winning the RPS game in the process.

Whatever. I get tired of trying to figure out why the offense looks so cumbersome and difficult all the time. It's a real drag.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just re-watched the first half. Couple of things:

M did run out of 3 receiver sets some. Maryland guy named Jones - well, he's a senior transfer from osu - got unblocked back side pursuit on two of these plays. Seemed to me that the play design was poor in that it allowed unimpeded backside pursuit by not having a player available to pick that up ????. Anyway, saw it 2X in the first half and it looked like it got shelved.

First half play selection looked 95% solid. I can't tell if Patterson is making line calls but, it didn't look like it to me. IMO, the biggest problems were on pass play execution. Pass-pro was generally good but between Patterson being inaccurate and receivers not getting separation or running the wrong route, drives collapsed - recall the throw to DPJ in the end zone: DPJ cuts inside, the throw was low and outside intended for DPJ to go down for it. Patterson threw the ball before the break DPJ was supposed to make. Recall Black's catch short of the first down. Black was running a hook pattern, executed it perfectly and Patterson threw it low forcing Black to dive back to make the catch. 4th and 1. The next play was the fake punt to extend the drive. This is a nit on the wheel route that Patterson threw to McKeon with 16 some seconds left in the first half ....... but that's a TD catch and run if the throw is just shaded inside a bit more and McKeon doesn't reach farther to the sideline for it losing his balance in the process and running out of bounds. But it's this kind of thing that separates Patterson from being really good to just sorta-good.

I only saw two plays where Patterson had an option. One was of the ZR type out of the mesh and if he keeps there is nothing but empty grass in front of him. That's because it was either Brooks or Jones, not sure which, on the back side that had removed themselves following the arcing receiver (Bell?) to the front side. On the replay, you could see the deeper S stepping to the front side of the play too. Patterson gets at least a big chunk and probably a long TD if he keeps and runs to the back side with the entirety of the Maryland D biting to the play side. The other was an RPO where Patterson elects to throw into a lot or red shirts. If he runs, he'll get at least 10y.

It's got to be frustrating for the coaches when due to a missed first or second down play, their looking at 3rd and 6+ that the state of the present office makes this a low percentage make. I'd have to look up M's season 3rd down and 6+ rate but I'll bet it's below 30%. That isn't going to cut it against good defenses where third and long has to be avoided..

Maryland played pretty solid run defense it looked like to me. Great plays featured the Brooks and Jones dudes being bad-asses. They did not run that 2-4-5 set that they got blasted in by the Gophers. Hoke deployed a pretty standard looking 3-4 over front with C-2 Zone behind it. Brooks or Jones were deployed as hybrid LBs up near or a few steps back from the LOS. I don't think the offense has got the mesh timing down yet. It appears the LBs can read the exchange and get to the gaps or win back side pursuit.

On this "equating" concept that ufm has talked about in his video analysis. M rarely was able to "equate" meaning get equal to (and then make the blocks) or get more blockers than defenders. I saw it happen twice: One near mid-field but only netted maybe 8 yards for Haskins because S play was pretty solid not allowing big chunk plays to develop like ND didn't do well at; the other was on Charbonett's TD run from the 8 which involved him making the perfect outside cut when Maryland's D had everyone crashing inside.

I didn't watch the 2nd half but I recall a TD drive where the play selection was heavy on standard down passes to the flat that Patterson is organically capable of hitting. I think this was a decent adjustment to what Maryland was doing but, IMO, those should have started happening right about M's 2nd or 3rd consecutive 3 and out. You'll remember this after they scored 14 quick points but could not seem to do anything for most of the 2nd quarter.

I think Locksley is going to do well with the Terps over time. He's very creative in play design that, in this game, took advantage of McGrone over-reacting a whole bunch. Maryland on offense did get the equate game down and McGrone or one of the Ss getting removed from plays by over-pursuit in the first half was the reason Maryland got it's run game in a groove. OTH, M's pass D on both the front and back end was excellent. Hutchinson and Uche were ever present in the back field harassing Jackson and consistently beating Maryland's tackles with some stunts and getting through with A & B gap blitzes. Somewhere right around the mid 2nd, I think Brown got the LBs and Ss settled down as those 7+ yard runs both inside and outside stopped happening. Before garbage time, the D had held Maryland to something under 40 yards rushing in between the mid 2nd and late 3rd quarters.

The bottom line which just confirms my post game hot take is that the offense overall was just inconsistent in a game against a weak opponent - that did play defense pretty well - in perfect weather conditions. Hard to say with any certainty but it sure appeared that the coaching staff wanted to keep the game out of Patterson's hands. Too run heavy in the first half for my tastes after it was clear that Maryland was doing a good job taking M's run game from them. It's possible and even a bit justifiable that after M got a two score lead that there was no need to go heavier to the pass game. I disagree with that approach but we've certainly see Harbaugh do that and he appeared to turtle v. the Turtle in this one.

[WM Wolverine]

Backside pursuit isn't expected to reach the ball carrier, they are unblocked by design. The hope is for a hole to open quickly enough on the play side, any delay and backside pursuit will reach the running back. Equating just means trying to get more blockers than defenders in the box.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Backside pursuit isn't expected to reach the ball carrier, they are unblocked by design. The hope is for a hole to open quickly enough on the play side, any delay and backside pursuit will reach the running back. Equating just means trying to get more blockers than defenders in the box.

...... and I think the mesh timing is what's making M vulnerable to back side pursuit. It just looks janky at times. When you slow-mo the video on those plays were, from the back side, Jones jumps into the backfield at the snap, he's already got a couple of steps toward the mesh ..... over before it even gets started. The dude was fast and appeared well coached v. what M does with those plays.

Sure, I get equate. It's supposed to be a key to what the QB decides to do on an RPO if I understand ufm's analysis using that term. Equate = more blockers than defenders = give. Can't' equate means guys stepping up or already in the box, means that you're going to get man coverage on your primary receiver or a secondary route will be wide open.

My take, having seen a lot of what I think are RPOs, is that Patterson doesn't consistently make the read or, optionally, the read is not on and it's a pre-planned run or pass.

[drok]

Whatever. I get tired of trying to figure out why the offense looks so cumbersome and difficult all the time. It's a real drag.

Proceeds to write a 10 paragraph post trying to figure out the offense.

[drok]

10 paragraphs based on a first half rewatch