ND @ Michigan, Saturday, October 26th, 7:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 3 Video

[Tom W]

Shea does tend to channel 2002-vintage John Navarre at moments. He's got more mobility, of course, but the accuracy and decision skills align. But JN was a pretty tough kid who weathered a lot of abuse and wasn't a 5-Star recruit..

[hack]

Very curious to see who is the next offensive coordinator and QB.

[Kstat]

The crappy thing is I have a hard time blaming Gattis when his QB is terrible.

[lineygoblue]

The crappy thing is I have a hard time blaming Gattis when his QB is terrible.

Agree. I think with a lot of other OC's McCaffery would have gotten his shot by now.

[hack]

There is certainly a chicken/egg element to things. But it does seem clear that what's working this year is the stuff Michigan could do before Gattis came. What isn't working is the stuff Gattis has brought to the table. Patterson was better last year in Harbaugh's offense than he is this year in Gattis's.

[iam416]

I think that's probably 100% correct. I'll wait for Buchanan's 10,000 word essay as to why it's not, but until then, I, with great reluctance, agree with hack.

[hack]

Not just you. It's uncomfortable for all of us.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It's coming. More later.

[Kstat]

There is certainly a chicken/egg element to things. But it does seem clear that what's working this year is the stuff Michigan could do before Gattis came. What isn't working is the stuff Gattis has brought to the table. Patterson was better last year in Harbaugh's offense than he is this year in Gattis's.

Disagree entirely. Shea sucked last season too. He just threw a lot less and to easy targets. He competed very few tough throws. What he did Saturday night he did all of last season and he got a lot of undue praise despite being a garden variety game manager.

as fun as the game was, it was depressing watching McCaffery get on the field knowing that game probably will keep him on the bench for the rest of the season despite Shea doing almost nothing to contribute to it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Look, I've worked to beat back hot-takes involving a particular M, game, play or player. Unless these sorts of declarations are backed up by some facts that support it, they are pretty much useless and lazy. Not only that, your dissing players and coaches unfairly as that hot take may be completely wrong. From BronxeBlue who does the Best and Worst piece after each gmae at mgo:

...... one of the issues I have with this type of commentary (edit: hot takes) is that it imputes so much intentionality on the players (edit: and coaches) and their motives that it's hard to parse what is a real issue and what is an imagined offense. DPJ runs toward the sidelines and it's suddenly "he's afraid of contact because he's a prima donna" and not, I don't know, trying to get past a defender. Or offensive linemen don't run to the line because they're quitting and not because running needlessly isn't a sign of toughness or dedication and they are simply heading out to the field the way they want.

The point? I'm not alone among writers who write about Michigan football that have a problem with unsubstantiated assertions like Patterson sucks or any other demeaning comments about players or coaches. I can slip up, when I get emotional, and I have but, I try hard not to levy unsubstantiated criticism when my personal knowledge about football is limited to what I read about it. I have no live experience with tackle football at all.

To Patterson: He is who he is and we saw the best of him running M's 2018 offense which, despite rumors that it had them, I don't think Brian ever charted a RO, a ZR or an RPO that I can recall. The assertion that M has fallen back to what it did in 2018 is not accurate. You can find out why by simply reading mgo UFRs for games in 2019. So, Patterson is running, or trying to run may be more a appropriate way to describe it, a different offense in 2019 than he did in 2018. It has morphed though since the non-con games and especially after Wisconsin. There is power with 22 personnel and less spread with 11. Pin and pull, arc-read, split zone, dives, designed QB runs make up the majority of run plays. I saw several ROs though - from my vantage point, some were correct, some weren't. We don't know if Patterson is reading the DE or a S so, it's not as easy to say, he's not making his reads when we don't know, especially live, who he's reading to make his give or keep decision. To my eye, there were also several RPOs.

He is an average collegiate QB. His QBR of 64, ranking #54, is pedestrian given his 5* resume. He's not likely to be drafted per multiple scouting reports, because he makes bad decisions and that is well documented - he made one in the ND game trying to throw the ball with his left arm, creating a backward pass, that rolled out of bounds for a 12 yard loss. He also takes too many sacks with the indecisiveness associated with his post snap, downfield reads. Also well documented in various scouting reports. Against PSU, and by UFR, he demonstrated the inability to make the right read on RO keepers. Brian mentioned the difficulty in determining who is being read, S, LB or DE. It is typically, but not always, the DE.

The apparent return to more power and less spread concepts is not entirely on "Patterson can't make the reads in the Gattis offense." The OL is involved. Receivers are involved. RBs are involved. TEs are involved. It is NOT one thing and I get aggravated by heaping blame on Patterson. I also believe that fans had expectations for change when Gattis came aboard that were beyond unrealistic. M isn't osu, Illinois, or IU in terms of spreadyness and never will be. So what you see right now, IMO, is a melding of Alabama's offense with a QB that isn't as good as Tua and the understanding that the OL runs power with gap blocking better than option ball with zone blocking. As well, there are transition costs; that LSU has seemingly not had any of these in a similar transition makes it hard to rationalize the problems M has had. I won't try. But I will state, only morons think this is entirely on Shea Patterson. There are 11 other guys out there on every play that make or break it.

[iam416]

He is an average collegiate QB... He's not likely to be drafted per multiple scouting reports

I think folks are probably hung up on terms. Whether he sucks or whether he's an average collegiate QB. I agree with the latter and, therefore, and very sadly, Buchanan's take. But, there's also a relative measure to it. This is the HARBAUGH!!!! the Quarterback Whisperer. This is MICHIGAN FER CHRISSAKES! Is an "average collegiate" QB "average" for what M wants to do? I rather doubt it. Relative to expectations for THAT POSITION -- the M QB -- I think Shea is below average. How much below average? Eh, I dunno. Here's what I think I know:

*M has skilled WRs, at least 2 of which I expect to play in the NFL
*M has an above average collegiate OL -- they have a couple really good players and the rest is solid enough to be good.
*RBs are a bit meh to me. I like Charbonnet better than Haskins. IMO, better vision and ability to make people miss. Haskins has a really nice burst on well-blocked plays, but I'm not sure can grind out as many yards as ZC

So, IMO it certainly appears like the tools are there for a QB to be effective. I think it's pretty clear Shea has not been particularly effective. What I don't know is how much is on him and how much is on coaching.

I go think they're getting their house in order a bit and finally starting to do some things pretty well. They're starting to get more of an identity. So, that's encouraging. I also think the coaching staff was awful at the start of the season. AWFUL. IMO, there's no other way to explain some of those games. Army is trash. I mean, they SUCK. IMO, Wisconsin is still better than M (as discussed on another thread ad nauseum), but they're not 40 points better.

If I really had to make a complete and total guess, I'd say M went into the season thinking Shea was a good QB and schemed most of their offense around that assumption. It was wrong. Way wrong. And they've since had to figure out what the fuck actually works and how to work around Shea's limitations.

[WM Wolverine]

Concur, Shea is holding back M's offense that could be really, really good if he was merely average. Talent around him is plenty good. Just him being able to make the reads whether to keep on ZR/RPO would open up the offense for him...

M finding a couple bread and butter running plays (split zone,mostly and inside zone) that the offensive line can block really well has really helped the running game. Gattis' plan was for the RPO to be base running play and Shea just can't execute it.

[froot loops]

Patterson was pretty good Saturday. I've been asking forever what skill made him a 5 star in recruiting, finally against ND we at least a glimpse of that. He was pretty quick on those runs.

[hack]

He's also the guy that wanted something more in SF and benched a Pro Bowler for Kaep, so there's a track record there of replacing QBs that can't do the job. Talent's point is even more acute if you assume that McCaffrey cannot do better than Patterson. For me, next year is going to be telling. No more mucking around with transfers or being forced to start guys who might not be ready. Harbaugh will go into next year with at least one QB and maybe two who have been here a while.

[froot loops]

How do we know they won't be messing around with transfers?