ND @ Michigan, Saturday, October 26th, 7:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 3 Video

[hack]

Good point. I shouldn't assume.

[Jeff Buchanan]

A fair, unbiased take from talent above. I'm less likely to think, as WM does, that Patterson is holding back M's offense. That's hard to say. As Froot offers, he looked pretty good v. ND.

In any effort to assess on-going performance, in this case that of Michigan's football team, there are almost always multiple factors involved. As fans, we see objective data that is backward looking. It shows a football team with a history of inefficiency (as a function of multiple measures) that has improved through 8 games. That says nothing about where the football team goes from here. S&P+ is means to do that subject to it's own inadequacies of doing that. But, I agree with talent's eyeball assessment: a bad football team appearing to get it's shit together by figuring out how to work around what Shea does well and what he doesn't do well.

After PSU and after ND, M moved steadily up from #20 (after the Wisconsin loss) to #11 in ESPN's (Bill Connelly's) S&P+. it's rating is 21.1 (Auburn is 21.2, #10, osu's is 35.3, #1). What this means is that M is a three TD favorite over the average CFB team, e.g., 3-4, Fresno state at 0.0. #65. M is a dog v. teams 10-1 by varying degrees, for example, its a 35 - 21 dog to osu. IMO, this matches my eyeball take of what M's final season record is projected by S&P to end up being: 9-3. M has already lost to 2 of the 3 teams ranked higher (PSU and Wisconsin) and will be a dog to osu by 2 TDs....... as of the end of week 8. Things can change.

The point relevant to the ongoing discussion is that the team has objectively improved. The eyeball test confirms that. M fans can and should be cautiously optimistic about the season. In my case, I've moved from a BPONE induced floor of 5-7, a ceiling of 8-4, after Iowa to a floor of 8-4, ceiling of 10-2 (10% chance of getting there) after ND. I don't think that position has a recency bias as it's based both on looking back and looking forward via two measures of doing that . Nor is overly optimistic to the point of unicorns blowing rainbows out their asses.

The fly in the ointment of being optimistic, though, is that we don't know, as talent implies, whether or not Patterson is capable of losing games M should win or winning games M should lose. At this point, and based only on my gut, I'm leaning to the former. That's because, in comparison to his subjectively and objectively better peers, Patterson has a host of well documented flaws in his game. The rest of the season rests on a lot of hope, some of it unfounded, along with the belief that THE TEAM can overcome Patterson's flaws. In that regard, I'm probably more optimistic than most and unlike harsh critics of Jim Harbaugh, I believe he is mostly responsible for guiding the team from the Wisconsin debacle in Madison to the curb stomping of ND in AA.

[lineygoblue]

Would it be out of order for me to mention that it was apparent to me that the leading cause of Michigan's win over ND was not Patterson?

Offensively, the reason they won, was the outstanding play of the OL, and the RB's. Michigan was going to win that game even if Milton was the QB, because the running game was clicking, and ND had no answer for it. Combine that with the efforts of the defense and you get the big Michigan win.

The discussion seems to be focusing on Patterson's play, but I'd argue that his play last week wasn't THE determining factor of the game. He hit some passes, and he had a couple runs, but I didn't see him do anything McCaffery or Milton couldn't have done.

[WM Wolverine]

M looked really look vs ND because their offensive line dominated ND and the tight ends blocked very well too. Eubanks is an excellent all around tight end who deserves way more recognition. M blocked a bunch of big running plays nearly flawlessly and M was just as good giving Shea a clean pocket vs ND. Amazed it's the same offensive line that had issues with Army, MTSU.

I've basically been leading the charge about the offense having turned the corner, noting the pickup vs the Illini when M's running backs weren't giving the ball away. They've turned the corner from being a mediocre offense into a good one I still see plenty of room for improvement as I still see Shea unable to pickup free yards on a handful of zone reads/RPO's every game, I see him appear frantic in the pocket when he's protected well, I see him make a couple really bad decisions throwing the ball right in to coverage. I'm rooting for Shea but he's imo the weak link of what could be a very, very good offense if a better QB played for M.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, we can't know this. What we know is that Patterson didn't turn the ball over, hit 57% of his passes and had a couple of key plays in terrible conditions that certainly affected Booke, a higher rated QB by QBR (#40) a lot more than it affected Patterson ....... Kelly's offensive strategy notwithstanding and that hurt Booke.

[WingsFan]

Very enjoyable game.

I forgot how much I hated ND as a kid and adult the 80s then 90s - Remember how many games they looked like they were going to lose, then something weird would happen and they win. Bo kicking to Rocket Ismail may be the worst of them all (no need to elaborate).

Luck of the Irish - Touchdown Jesus - Play like a Champion Today - Rudy - Four Horseman - Win one for the Gipper can all suck it!

Im so glad we at least got the last laugh, 14 years is a long time to stew. I will not be alive (and glad) when they play again.

[Hannibal]

Very shitty coaching job by Kelly, it seems.

[UMStan White]

Loved the post Wingsfan!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Very enjoyable game.

I forgot how much I hated ND as a kid and adult the 80s then 90s - Remember how many games they looked like they were going to lose, then something weird would happen and they win. Bo kicking to Rocket Ismail may be the worst of them all (no need to elaborate).

Luck of the Irish - Touchdown Jesus - Play like a Champion Today - Rudy - Four Horseman - Win one for the Gipper can all suck it!

Im so glad we at least got the last laugh, 14 years is a long time to stew. I will not be alive (and glad) when they play again.

I have memories of hating these games because of the very things you bring up. Michigan would out-play them and still manage to lose.

I believe a lot of that sort of thing - Michigan is cursed, bad things happen to Michigan and it's opposite, etc., are self inflicted. Michigan football teams, from as far back as I followed them starting in '65/'66, had few games where you got the feeling that they really wanted to bury their rivals and frequently played down to the level of their competition - an unexpected loss by a highly ranked M football team to the virtually unknown Gophers in '76, I think it was, comes to mind. Allowing teams to hang around instead of driving the dagger in to the hilt when opportunities presented themselves to do so where politely avoided. Even in the modern age of football, M still clings to some very bad aspects of how football was played up until the current century. Harbaugh has been slow to adapt to modern offenses and despite the hiring of "speed-in-space" Josh Gattis, M is fundamentally still a power football team among the few football teams that still run this kind of offense as their base.

But, yeah, fun post that brings back the awful, jaw dropping memories of the Rocket Ismail punt return. Ranks right up their with what I consider among many other self inflicted wounds with the rain punt v. MSU in 2017 that was blocked. Awful.

[WingsFan]

Thanks Stan must of caught you right in the middle of your coffee

[WingsFan]

But, yeah, fun post that brings back the awful, jaw dropping memories of the Rocket Ismail punt return. Ranks right up their with what I consider among many other self inflicted wounds with the rain punt v. MSU in 2017 that was blocked. Awful.

Those ND games were extreme agony, I think as time went by I forgot. The Rocket game was #1 vs #2 in 1989 and Michigan lost by 5 points as Ismail returned two kickoffs in the second half for TDs. Lucky Twittter and Message boards were not around then, Bo caught a lot of heat for kicking to Ismail.