ND @ Michigan, Saturday, October 26th, 7:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 3 Video

[AlabamAlum]

If ND loses, will Brian Kelly kill another kid in the A/V club?

[iam416]

Yes.

[AlabamAlum]

I never cared for A/V nerds.

[Jeff Buchanan]

There is a good chance that this game will be played in some rain - how heavy or how light still isn't settled. Since M's pass defense has some question marks and ND's pass offense doesn't have many, the rain, if and when it comes, probably helps M in potentially limiting big plays.

ND also doesn't have an athlete like KJ Hamler - close - but no. Their speedy guys include Chris Finke whose stats were OK - he has a 62% catch rate. They have a solid DPJ type guy in Chase Claypool and his stats indicate he is Ian Book's primary target. ND also has a decent TE - Cole Kmet - 6'6", 250. Book is good. He's completing nearly 70% of his pass attempts. That's what ND does, they are a spread to pass offense.

Still, Brown/Zordich/Partridge have to coach up their DBs to execute what Brown calls his Traps Coverage to make the switches that approach calls for. M lines up in what appears to be C-1, man but shifts to what is essentially a C-2 zone. Brad Hawkins had trouble with his assignments v. PSU and that he doesn't have the speed or athleticism if he makes an initial error to recover, he's vulnerable. When Traps works, it's good at covering crossing routes.

M absolutely has to avoid giving up big plays to ND who will undoubtedly try to exploit the mis-matches between receivers and Ss when they happen. When the switches don't happen and coverage breaks down or a mis-match develops, Book will make M pay. I actually think this is the #1 key to this game.

If the 2019 M defense is anything, it, again, can stop the run. Brown is doing it differently in 2019 than he did it in 2018 but it's still effective. Tony Jones is ND's go to back with a smattering of other just guys who get carries sporadically. Jones is averaging 7ypc but UGA held him to 21y and 2.3 ypc in a loss.

ND did not play well v. UGA - a road Ioss - or USC - a close home win. This is only ND's second road game although they did have a bye before heading to AA. I think M can win a slog in the rain v. ND baring a turnover margin that favors ND. If it stays dry, I like M's last two quarters of offense v. PSU. But, as talent points out, that probably doesn't erase the shittyness of the other 24. I was encouraged by Patterson's improvement but he is still the same Patterson, just not the JOK 2.0 version he's looked like in most of 2019.

Patterson's play is the #2 key to the game. If he is on, hits his receivers (and they catch it!!!), M will win comfortably something like 28-20. If he plays like JOK 2.0, this will be a loss and it probably won't be close.

[Tom W]

If Patterson plays like JOK 2.0 on Saturday, then he should be benched at halftime and be done with it for the rest of the season. Maybe this should have happened already. But, as was pointed out by a mutual friend this is Harbaugh's showcase event- he wanted to play Irish even if it meant walking away from signed contracts, placing it in the middle of the conference schedule and (probably) succumbing to whatever whims ND presented. Patterson obviously hasn't been at 100% most of the season, so spare the humiliation if he can't bring it on Saturday.

[lineygoblue]

This is one of those games that can be hard to pick. Michigan has a lot of places and teams that are kryptonite to them (Camp Randall, Beaver Stadium, et al) and Michigan Stadium has been kryptonite to Notre Dame. The last time they won at Michigan Stadium was in 2005.

But Brian Kelly is a doggone good football coach. He's won national titles, and turned every program around that he's been to. He's doing a fine job with the Irish.

I'm not buying in to Michigan's offense 'finding itself' yet. I was born at night, but not last night.

Weather will be a factor, as Jeff points out. If its raining, it will be a cold rain.

I still like the Irish by anywhere from 8-10 points.

[WM Wolverine]

Shea played more like he did last season, I'm seeing an offense that is evolving to fit it's quarterback. I don't like the two tight end personnel and injuries have forced M to use more 3 receiver sets which has helped spread the field...

Shea still is no threat to run and isn't keeping when he should, and he doesn't see the field well.

[Rob F]

I feel like I just stepped out of a time machine and found the same M-Borg bunch that were here when I stepped away 5(?) years ago. Except for one thing: Liney's back!

What got my attention was a post I saw on MGoBlog that I'm 99.9% certain was from Jeff Buchanan, posted in the thread about this Saturday's weather forecast.

Was that you, Jeff?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yep ..... I post at mgoboard infrequently but I do post occasionally.

[Rob F]

I thought so! I knew you lurked over there but until now hadn't seen you post, though I do occasionally see Hannibal and Jamie H there.

Are you guys still tailgating on the back corner of Lindy's Lot on Scio Church Rd.?

[lineygoblue]

Now there's a name out of the past. Nice to see you again Rob!

[Jeff Buchanan]

I thought so! I knew you lurked over there but until now hadn't seen you post, though I do occasionally see Hannibal and Jamie H there.

Are you guys still tailgating on the back corner of Lindy's Lot on Scio Church Rd.?

Yes. We'll be there Saturday but plan on folding tents and pretty much packing up everything by 5p. See below a copy of what I just posted at mgoboard.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Some questions asked here about "fronts" and the possibility that it will shift lessening the chances of the forecast deluge during the game.

The weather features affecting the forecast are three systems none of them actually passing through SE MI on game day. The first is a High Pressure system that is passing though MI TODAY W to E. The second is a system over the plains moving from SW to NE - it is providing funneling action to the third tropical system moving from the SW (currently still over the Gulf of Mexico) to the NE (will be over the Ohio Valley region on Saturday). It is this system that is the source of the heavy rains that are forecasted for SE MI.

As usual for SE MI weather forecasting and why it is so hard to forecast this region, it is right on the edge of forecast rain amounts exceeding an inch so, yes, there could be less rain than that of the forecast deluge in Ann Arbor that all the weather Apps are talking about. When you time lapse the NWS surface analysis maps, you can watch the rain areas move from S to N and fully engulf SE MI by 8pm. However, if you overlay these maps with forecast precip amounts, Ann Arbor sits in the < 1 inch region. Move to Detroit Metro and its in the 1-2 inch band. It's hair splitting and weather forecasters won't do that. They are going to almost always go worst case. So, yeah, there's a chance it won't be a monsoon; there is no chance it won't rain.

If you are tailgating, what I recommend is that you get a good radar APP on your phone and watch rain movement on that App and act accordingly. BTW, I'm betting that the U will preemptively close golf course parking. That being the case, expect Ann Arbor traffic and the hunt for parking to be a mad house by 3pm.

[Jeff Buchanan]

What's the impact of heavy rains and gusty winds on this game?

ND doesn't have a particularly good run game. However, Jafar Armstrong, their #1 RB, will be back. Tony Jones has been filling in and he is just a guy.

But that's not the story in a potentially rain soaked game. Kelley runs a spread pass to run offense and having Ian Book hit mid-range passes is the key to ND's run game. I expect that game is going to get limited by the weather. Dink and dunk isn't likely to hurt M's D or get them to go all zone or drop Ss back on standard downs.

However, M's run game has been off and on. Against PSU it was off (see the UFR) and not because PSU was good. It was because the OL played poorly in that part of the game. They were really good at pass-pro but not in the run game. That has to change v. ND. I think it will and in this match-up, I think M has an advantage..... if Patterson can get his keep reads right. He continued to struggle with that v. PSU.

I would have much rather have this game played in ideal conditions so as to allow the offense to develop. That's not going to happen and you can bet we'll see way more 22 personnel line-ups on offense than 11. Expect an almost 100% return to the 2018 offense which, when it is executed well, isn't bad.

I do think Kelley is a lot more likely than Harbaugh to go for big plays early and that could be a problem. You're not likely to see ND completely drop what they do best even if it's raining. That is getting the mismatches that get their receivers matched up one-on-one with Hawkins or Mettelus. That is just too juicy an opportunity for Kelley to not go with it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

M's Offense v. ND's defense: from FFFF at mgo.

"The Gattis RPO game is obsolete": v. the way ND makes up for poor interior DL play by throwing lite LBs into the LOS EVERY play. Sound familiar? It is except ND is more aggressive with this than Brown and does it differently.

Giving multiple run looks with more gaps to fill than ND has gap fillers to launch at said gaps should make a productive game plan. Sound familiar? It should because an offense like that was Jim Harbaugh's 2015 offense.

Man-ball with a lead blocking FB is a good game plan in shitty weather and against a ND defense where the LBs don't read anything, they charge the LOS. There will be a shit-ton of space behind them if those LBs pick gaps and Haskins or Charbonett aren't in them. The next thing they'll have to contend with are two decent safeties but mass X acceleration, you know, basic physics, will keep the chains moving.

Also, UGA did well with it's Nico/DPJ like sized WRs by chucking the ball up and having their bigs go 50/50 with NDs small CBs. M should do this even if it's raining.

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