Michigan @ PSU, Saturday, 10/19, 7:30pm, ABC/ESPN 3 Video

[Jeff Buchanan]

Pot meet kettle.

[WingsFan]

I think AA has been admirably transparent and clear, multiple times, in stating that his purpose here is to post nonsesne.

He was clearly trolling with Harbaugh back to the wall and such, Jeff and Liney called him on it and he backed down. Im sure he would not bet a dime of real $$ even with the 7.5 line.

[hack]

"Your name's Lebowski, Lebowski."

[AlabamAlum]

He was clearly trolling with Harbaugh back to the wall and such, Jeff and Liney called him on it and he backed down. Im sure he would not bet a dime of real $$ even with the 7.5 line.

[THE_WIZARD_]

This is the week that HARBAUGH!!! puts it all together.

[hack]

More likely that this is the week that your local authorities put it all together, and then quarantine you for the good of all.

[Jeff Buchanan]

As the week wears on, there's some good player match-up discussions - the Jimmy's and Joe's stuff that goes beyond fancy stats - that's out there.

Who's the leading rusher at PSU? Cain? Nope. It's the QB, Sean Clifford, after sack adjustments. Like Patterson, he also is better throwing the ball outside the pocket than within it.

I said this up thread but I liked what Don Brown did with his D v. Iowa. So, one match-up to watch is Clifford v. Brown's pressure packages. Last year, Brown had PSU's offense nailed and that's why what happened in 2018 to PUS's offense happened. PSU fans have posted that Clifford has a better arm and may make RPO reads better than McSorely but McSorely was better in the pocket - except v. Brown/M's D.

You have to squint to see what Brown has done differently in 2019 with his front 7 and to the back-end. The pressure package isn't coming from the DL (DTs and DEs). It's coming from a confusing mix of front 7 contributors that the PSU OL and QB will have to sort out. The back end is being deployed differently too. There's more C2 - Zone but I don't think it is your Mother's classic brand of that either.

I mentioned this briefly up thread but there is a lot of shifting going on between CBs, LBs and Ss and when it's good, the QBs have trouble reading it and going through their progressions. Faced with pressure, it's hard ...... whatever Brown has his backers, CBs and Ss doing with this shifting of coverages and roles is resulting in a lot of QB sacks - I did not know this but M leads in the pressure metric nationally and is right up there with sack rate. OTH, when the shifting of roles and coverages gets screwed up, chunk plays result. Again, we all know this: Brown runs a high risk, high reward D.

Against Iowa it worked. It worked v. Illinois until the 25 point outburst inexplicably happened. Tired D because the offense sucked in the second half? Maybe. That or Lovie, who is a good coach, downloaded Brown's D and won the chess match until the O got it's head out of it's ass.

Bottom line, some credible analysis is saying the game is going to come down to how well Clifford performs v. M's D. Most are saying, like talent remarks elsewhere, this game is going to be a low scoring game. If I didn't think there was going to be some turnovers, affecting both teams, I'd see the 13-16 or 16-13 score with either team winning. But I think we are going to see short fields given at a faster clip to PSU than to M so, I think the score will be a bit higher than what a mistake free rock fight would produce. Maybe something like 20-17 but PSU still wins it despite AA's non-sesneical psotings.

[Hannibal]

If our D was tired in the third Q against Illinois then our S&C coach needs to be fired, because those guys were barely on the field in the first half.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In case anyone needs reminding......... this came from a WSJ article from yesterday: Michigan has a top 10 Problem.

PSU.PNG

[iam416]

Let me channel some Mgo....They actually beat Sparty in 2015, they actually beat Ohio State in 2016, they could have beat Penn State in 2017 but Penn State changed their entire offense -- once they got it figured out, it was game on, they right there against Wisconsin in 2017 until two miracle pass/catches and Peters getting hurt and they had a brilliant gameplan against Ohio State in 2017 but had no QB.

So, really that's like 6-4.

[lineygoblue]

We're about to enter the most definitive six game string of Harbaugh's time at Michigan, and maybe of his entire CFB coaching career.

When Franklin lays another embarrassing loss on Michigan tonight, the sharks will no longer be circling. They'll be moving in for the kill.

Notre Dame comes to town next week, and will take full advantage of Michigan's STUPIDITY in foolishly agreeing to the 2 game resumption of the series, and it will be done on national TV, and in the heart of Ann Arbor Michigan. ND laughs and says thank you as they leave.

The Wolverines head out on the road to Maryland the following week, for a game that has trap door written all over it. Maryland has an offense. Michigan does not.

They'll get a week off before welcoming MSU to Ann Arbor, and Dantonio will have his guys all full of piss and vinegar ready to leave one last 'statement game' as he prepares to move on from MSU. Its going to be ugly.

As Michigan goes to Indiana the following week, the Hoosiers will see a Michigan team that is likely coming apart at the seams. The howls for Harbaugh's firing will be at their full-lunged loudest as the Hoosiers finally break the Michigan hex, and lay a loss on Michigan.

We then end the season with the boys down south coming to town, and at least 5 losses on our record. Alums, students and the general public alike won't be able to sell their tickets fast or cheap enough, as they are scooped up by the red hordes down south. In a mostly red stadium on Stadium and Main, on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, the final shoe is dropped on the Harbaugh tenure at Michigan. They end the season at no better than 6-6, and become the butt of every CFB joke that Finebaum, ESPN, the BTN, and Fox Sports can think of. Its going to be uglier than RichRod and Hoke combined.

As Harbaugh departs, (it won't matter if he's fired or leaves on his own) Warde Manuel brings in Mike DeBord to stop the bleeding.

[WM Wolverine]

M has a chance vs the Buckeyes... If Fields is injured.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Liney, you're talking 5-7. A day or two ago you were agreeing with a 7-5 floor and an 8-4 ceiling. What changed in that 48h?

I was just watching Purdue and Iowa. When I turned it off, 5 minutes left in the 2nd, and the score was Iowa 6, Purdue 0. Just awful football.

However, I've like Brohm since he showed up at Purdue. He's on, what, his 3rd QB in Jake Plummer, Jr.? The point here is that Purdue runs a nice RPO offense with a pass to run flavor and Plummer isn't terrible running it. Iowa runs a vanilla 4-3, C2 Zone and rarely brings more than 4. The drive I watched (that ended in a fumble that wasn't .... but the John Oneil crew) was a nice one that made sense. Plummer hit some nice throws off RPOs.

I have no idea why Gattis can't have M's offense look something like that. It's true that M's O is a run to pass spread - one that has become much more pin and pull, split-zone power in the run component for some reason - but still ...... it's a mystery. Patterson cannot be that bad. We can see the Zone Reads live and backed up with UFR. Why is it that the play results in a ZR, run give into 6 blockers v. 7 defenders? Why is it that RPOs work but there aren't very many of them? Using M's big receivers v. midget CBs v. man when it shows up? Forget it - the pre-snap reads aren't getting made or the coaches making play calls are blowing it.

My sense is that the coaches have put a short leash on Patterson and, accordingly, he's playing like a cowering pup that's been beaten into obedience. meanwhile the coaches aren't putting the players on offense in positions to succeed. Bad all around.

[lineygoblue]

Liney, you're talking 5-7. A day or two ago you were agreeing with a 7-5 floor and an 8-4 ceiling. What changed in that 48h?

I'm thinking the ceiling is now 6-6, and that only happens if they can catch Maryland at the right time.

The rest of the schedule is just not favorable. Especially with no offense. They are no threat to anyone else on the schedule.

Lets check them off again and think about our offense against them.

---

Penn State -- .. Yeah, right. We'll be lucky if the offense generates more than 100 total yards.

Notre Dame - Seriously? Even in a night game at home, the Irish will throttle this offense.

Maryland - Michigan's last chance for a W this year. The defense will need to play like the 2nd half of the Iowa game, all game long. Have I mentioned we play horrible on the road?

MSU -- The wheels are starting to come off at MSU, and we do get them at home, so I'll generously give Michigan a CHANCE (<5%) of winning this, with MSU helping us by "being MSU". But Lewerke is better than most QB's we've faced all year.

Indiana - They have got to be smarting over all the close losses to us over the past 4 years or so. This is in Bloomington, and Michigan plays HORRIBLE on the road. I think the Hoosiers break thru here and add another "L" to Michigan's record.

OSU -- We don't even need to discuss this. They can name their score in front of a huge friendly crowd.

.......

Change my mind.

[hack]

That's pretty bleak. At this point next week you'll probably forecast that they finish with less wins than they already have now?