Michigan @ PSU, Saturday, 10/19, 7:30pm, ABC/ESPN 3 Video

[Jeff Buchanan]

Been posted multiple times in multiple forums ....... M has no chance for a W. This isn't about BPONE. It's about trends, reality and truth coming home to roost.

[WM Wolverine]

M's defense will need a shutout.... and score a TD themselves.

[lineygoblue]

My initial gut feeling is PSU 34 M 12

Iowa and PSU played a close game but you can throw that away with yesterday's newspaper. PSU at home at night in their whiteout is more than this Michigan team can handle. Maybe if the '97 team were still playing, I'd give our guys a chance. But not this team, especially with this offense.

I figure they'll scrounge up a couple cheap FG's and maybe a quirky TD with a missed XP (thanks Nordin) and that will be about it.

PSU will think they are going to win the NC after this one. Then they'll have to play OSU.

[iam416]

I think this will be a rock fight. I do like Noah Cain, though. He gives them somewhat of a running game.

[WM Wolverine]

Patterson will need to play his best game of the season for M to be competitive and they also can't give up possessions/ short fields, amazed how much a different QB he is this season.

Penn State hasn't overly impressed me (awful schedule), they are ranked where they belong. Their offense could be made one dimensional and their defensive backfield will give up some big plays. But M looks clueless on offense

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think this will be a rock fight. I do like Noah Cain, though. He gives them somewhat of a running game.

You can add AJ Hammler to PSU's list of dudes. The guy is quick.

I also think PSU QB Sean Cifford is solid, not spectacular but he can run and throw very respectably.

PSU has this funny looking RO (not sure if it's a ZR) thing at the mesh. It's a delay that looks like it's intended to allow the OL and the RB to decide where the D is attacking and then go where they are not. I thought it was somewhat effective but not great. Lots of RPO that was very effective v. Iowa's D. Clifford looks way better at running those plays than Patterson does and it does not help M that they don't run many of them.

[lineygoblue]

The telling point for me yesterday was when Illinois shut down Michigan's offense in the 3rd quarter. If they can figure it out, so can Penn State. And PSU will do it for the whole game, not just one quarter.

I won't be watching, but I can predict what the offense will do. They will run TNT, and fail. Their passing game will consist of sit-down routes in the 10-15 yard range, and those will be batted away.

They'll probably try a couple downfield passes, but when those fall incomplete they won't come back to them.

When the offense fails to possess the ball, and makes the defense play long stretches of time, the PSU offense will start gashing the defense for 10-15 yard runs, which will make Cain look like the next Barkley.

I'm confident in my 34-12 prediction for PSU.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well to be fair, Harbaugh turteled his own offense when it was 28-0 and didn't restart it until Illinois got within 3. I'm not observant or smart enough to know what Brown did to allow 25 unanswered points but part of that was, as you point out, the D gets tired being out there all the time and that is a depth issue.

M's 1st TD drive was 7 plays that covered 65y in just under 3 minutes (5r/2p). The next M drive consumed just under 4m, went 61y and consisted of 13 plays, 2p/10r and ended in a missed Nordin FG. Next, 1m, 4 plays, 2r/2p and ended with a 25 yardpass play to Shoonmaker for the TD. End of 1st quarter. It was 21 - to nothin! FGS!

At the start of the 2nd quarter, M yielded an 8 play drive from the illini 23 and moved forward to the 39 and that drive ended in a blocked punt. M scored on the first play of the ensuing possession with a Charbonet 7y run. Lovie started to download Don's D for that drive even though it didn't score. It would a few minutes later and on the Illini's next possession.

M had one more chance to make it 35-0 on a 5 play (1r/4p) drive that started on the M 1y line and ended with a Charbonett fumble on the M 40. Illinois then scored a TD and M signaled the turtle it would continue in the 3rd to end the half with the score 28-7. A fumble and what I thought was giving up a chance to respond to the Illinois score with a minute+ on the clock and 3 time outs left was a major coaching error. M went on to rund own the clock and do a kneel down. Fuck.

If I can find one specific thing that hurt what could have been butt kicking, it was Harbaugh taking his foot off the go pedal possibly prompted by Charbonett's fumble because before that point, the offense was rolling. I don't have the exact 1st half stats but I think M had over 300 yards most of it rushing and Patterson looked pretty good. You want your players to let up? Signal by your coaching actions that you want the team to coast to a victory instead of continuing to punish your opponent until He gives up. Given Harbaugh's past history of talking about winning with cruelty and integrity, I find this mystifying and frustrating.

No surprise it was not and should have been anticipated by understanding Patterson's weaknesses - he was in rhythm, why the fuck stop that - keep striking while the iron is hot, keep the players heads into the game. But, o, let's coast. Patterson and the offense promptly took on the look of suckage until Illinois got wind of an upset, the D looked gassed becasue of that and somebody on the sidelines started to pay attention. NEVER should have been like that and didn't have to save STUPID on the sidelines.

So, will anything be learned by this approach? Nope. My Eightball says, My sources say no, Outlook not so good, Very doubtful. I still don't think Harbaugh recognizes that 3 TD leads can be quickly erased by randomeness, bad calls and, well, good offense even for shitty teams who get pumped up when it looks like there is a chance because the other team has let up.

[Cody_Russell]

[Jeff Buchanan]

PSU is -7.5 (OU 110)

[Jeff Buchanan]

On looking, I found one opening bet that had PSU at -4.5. That quickly shot up to 7.5. Whoever got that opening bet is going to make a pile.

[lineygoblue]

I think PSU is still a solid bet at 7.5

I'm going to see if I can get that through my guy.

[Hannibal]

PSU 31
Michigan 10

[AlabamAlum]

M will beat PSU.

[iam416]

Hard to argue with that. AA is basically never wrong.