Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season

[Jeff Buchanan]

"Wisconsin all over" would have M looking like it looked against Alabama when RichRod took M to Dallas and Jerry's World in 2012. What a clown show that was and I was there. Shameful. There was still Denard and Fitz and they were both good and exciting to watch but that was about it.

M's defense is better, way better, light years better than the 2012 version. I'm telling ya, if M cuts down the mistakes it made v. osu, focuses and plays on offense like it is capable, it won't be a blow-out. They may not win but they'll put up a fight.

This, BTW, is my new hope for M football ...... always an underdog but a tough out. That seems like a reasonable position until M gets elite QB play in a Gattis offense and improves its recruiting and player development specifically on defense. It is what it is right now. Things could have and probably should have been better. But correction of those things doesn't happen in 1-2 seasons, maybe over 3-4 given the 2017 class busts on the DL but that's where I am and I tire of the loser talk.

[lineygoblue]

Ok, Jeff .. I'll lay off the heavy duty gloom and doom until we find out who the opponent is ...

[iam416]

Based on what I hear from AA and read about Alabama, without Tua, the classic skill mix present at the QB/RB position just ain't there. Totally different offense that has to rely on Najee with a lesser threat from Jones. How would M's D done v. osu with fields out? Let me think? Better? Waaaay better.

I guess the pertinent question is whether you think M's defense is better than Auburn's. Auburn actually has badass DL. FYI, one of those Pick-6s -- the 99-yard one -- was really fluky.

I would focus more on scoring lots of points against Alabama's young, crippled defense.

If everyone plays (and UAT's first round WRs could not, who knows), but if everyone plays you will need to score more than 27 to avoid being confederate cannon fodder.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I have to admit ...... there is a ton of talk out there in the CFB blogosphere (mostly M fans but others program fans chime in) about "cheating" that I also tire of. Of course, it is particularly prevalent among the M fan base after an M loss to osu.

The common theme is that, yes, it occurs but most of it is going on outside the surveillance and reporting responsibilities of the NCAA/athletic departments that, like black market undertakings, they flourish. A poster posted a link to a book, I can't recall it's title, that identifies typical black market undertakings. The one that is similar in characteristics to what purportedly is going on in CFB is the undocumented labor market ...... every one knows its going on but it is so critical to certain industries that enforcement is lax.

CFB programs are disconnected from it, may or may not know what is going on, but, either way, they ignore it. At certain tiers of competitiveness, It becomes critical to success. Lots of similarities to what's going on within the upper tiers of CFB to what goes on in a number of highly competitive industries who relay on cheap labor to boost profits and share prices.

Anyway, I just thought I'd throw this out there. Maybe talent will go postal again. That's always entertaining. And let me be clear. My position remains, the playing field is not level, what CFB teams are benefiting or being disadvantaged by it, what the cause of it and what the remedies are for it are certainly debatable.

[AlabamAlum]

That is correct in its entirety, Talent. Shocked, but here we are.

[iam416]

Nah, Buchanan. We've reached our impasse on that issue. I'm sure you get a nice echo chamber going, though. And in the blogosphere, it's M fans. End of story. You have the blog of record throwing a petulant tantrum, as it always does this time of year. One of the most joyous outcomes of the The Game.

[AlabamAlum]

Jeff,

The thing is, there needs to be some tangible evidence (see: Ole Miss circa 2015). Take a Bama or an Ohio State. We both have a few disgruntleds who washed out and would be more than happy to drop dime wrt cheating. In the end, bluechippers may be getting the odd handout or loan but the main reason they come to the schools isn't because they love Bama or TOSUC or even the booster handshakes, but because they believe it offers them the best chance to get to the NFL as a 1st or 2nd rounder.

But none of the handouts matter once the players can profit on their name or likeness. Alabama will weaponize that once it becomes legal everywhere.

[iam416]

And to be clear, based on the way the UAT-Auburn game played out, advanced stats gave Alabama a 94% chance of winning. I mean, LOL. They absolutely controlled that game. They scored TDs instead of kicking FGs (mostly) and they were so FG adverse that when they decided to kick the just missed. Auburn mostly scored FGs instead of TDs (their offense scored 3 TDs and 4 FGs). But, those two huge TOs will kill you. The 99-yard deal was devastating.

Alabama got pretty well beat by LSU. They made some mistakes in the 1st half -- open drive fumbled and last drive INT -- that set them behind the 8-ball and they never really got out. But, they pretty much beat Auburn (or should have). Unfortunately for Alabam"Alum", weird ass shit seems to happen to UAT inside J-H.

[AlabamAlum]

Even with LSU, the total yards were 559-541.

Bama had more turnovers, more penalties, and were behind the 8-ball and playing catch-up after a disastrous 23-6 second quarter. You can't lose the first half by 20 and hope to win. Normally you tell me we win the second half by 15 and I feel pretty good. This game, not so much.

[iam416]

Right. The end of the first half was disastrous. They had a possession there down maybe 19-13 (I forget the score) -- they could have gone down taken the lead going into half and somehow survived the 1st half. But, they get stopped. LSU scores. UAT throws an INT. LSU scores again and instead of 20-19 it's 33-13. UAT never had the ball in the 2nd half with a chance to take the lead. That's chasing the game and never really getting close enough to matter. They just couldn't stop LSU when it mattered. The long TD after LSU iced game is nice for the score and total yard, but I thought LSU was in control from the moment they stopped Alabama at 19-13.

[AlabamAlum]

Agreed. The second half just points to what could have been.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff,

The thing is, there needs to be some tangible evidence (see: Ole Miss circa 2015). Take a Bama or an Ohio State. We both have a few disgruntleds who washed out and would be more than happy to drop dime wrt cheating. In the end, bluechippers may be getting the odd handout or loan but the main reason they come to the schools isn't because they love Bama or TOSUC or even the booster handshakes, but because they believe it offers them the best chance to get to the NFL as a 1st or 2nd rounder.

But none of the handouts matter once the players can profit on their name or likeness. Alabama will weaponize that once it becomes legal everywhere.

I can agree with most of this, AA. The debate that's going on among the M fan base centers around, on one side, the reason osu (and others) are so successful is because top players are attracted to the program becasue of benefits (from any source) not available elsewhere. On the other side is precisely what you say. The numbers are staggering wrt which teams get the most players into the NFL .... I saw them in a post but not going to dig around to find them. Substantial difference between the top teams and the ones chasing them, like M.

To me it's like penalties and blaming the refs for a set back in game or the final score not in favor of the complainer. It's out of your control. Deal with it, move on. I tend to feel that the playing field being less than level has more to do with larger structural issues like conference alignment, scheduling, arcane amateurism rules that affect all CFB teams but seem to have a larger impact among the top tier programs, say the 5 year consensus top 10-15 teams. It's magnified there but still affects the entirety of CFB.

These are a NCAA Board of Governor's issues and I think the member institution's presidents have different views than the coaches and ADs of whether this is a problem or not. Among that Board, from what I have read about them, they place a great deal of importance - entrenched I would say - on the student athlete. They are steadfastly against the player organization (unionization) movement such as went down a few years ago at Fnw, players as employees or what they perceive as the complexity of paying athletes in the context of Title IX ...... I haven't studied this sufficiently to offer a solid opinion but seems to me Title IX needs a re-work in light of the forces that NIL will bring to bear on overall college athlete compensation.

[UMStan White]

Care to wager a bet boys ? Oh..wait... I lost the last two bets. Nevermind!

[AlabamAlum]

I know Alabama and Ohio State are 1 and 2 with players in the NFL. Together they have more players there than Michigan, Arizona, Southern Cal, Oregon, Pitt, Minnesota, and Missouri combined. Those kinda numbers draw talent. They feel they can be developed, noticed, and drafted there. Some of it's perception that comes with winning and some is better coaching and facilities.

[iam416]

Buchanan

I think you're also looking at the very end of the bell curve. There are absolutely structural differences in college football as a whole that greatly benefit some programs and make it virtually impossible for other programs to compete for the ultimate prize. And spoiler alert -- M is a benefactor of those difference. Eastern Michigan (and others) are penalized. It's clear that M is a much better option for an athlete than Eastern Michigan for a host of reasons that I think are self-evident.

When you look at the top 15-20 programs -- the programs that realistically can compete for conference titles on a routine basis and harbor realistic CFP goals -- when you look at those programs the same reasons that would distinguish M and EMU distinguish Alabama and, say, Washington. Or, hell, M. They don't distinguish the programs with the same force -- conceded -- but in terms of who is going to develop you as a player, who is more likely to get me to the NFL, who is more likely to play in big games, who is more likely to win big games, etc -- well, those are still considerations for college kids. Further, kids also balance the elite nature of the program with comfort.

You can't just say all else is equal except CHEATING!!!! Can't do it. All else is not equal. In fact, there are gads of fucking factors that go into a recruit's decision. Trying to boil it down to one single factor is crazy and, frankly, it's whistling past the graveyard if your school isn't recruiting well. This is Rashan Gary or Chris Hinton or Aubrey Solomon or DPJ or Peppers or McCaffrey or Charbonnet or [Fill in Blank]. All these kids could have gone anywhere. They chose M and, if the trope is to be believed, that means they eschewed lots of money to do so. Why? Because money isn't the only factor and, often times, it's not a factor.

The other thing is that you know, pretty quickly, if the recruit is on the take. That's not a mystery at all. You know right of the gate if it's going to take cash to sign that kid. This isn't something that creeps up on you. So, presumably, if M is recruiting a kid hard then they think they have a chance because it's not a money thing (again, M is pure driven snow).

This is why I want to see who on OSU was bought for $200K? Who on Alabama is bought for $200K? Point out the specific players. Was M recruiting them, too? What's their family situation like? Where are they from? What high school are they going to? What 7/7 team do they play for? Public school kid from Dade county playing for SoFla Express? Yeah, that's likely going to take money. Private school kid from Houston? I dunno. Let's see more. But that's the point -- is that it's very difficult to distill this down to cheating. I think it's impossible, personally. And I think that's especially the case when the evidence is so hard to come by.