Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season

[hack]

OSU has indeed been very lucky. Michigan has not made its own luck. OSU is in a position to capitalize on those kinds of events in a way Michigan is just not. That may change, as Harbaugh settles in with a new offense and QBs are no longer suffering the tension between what Harbaugh thinks works and what actually does work.

[iam416]

Oh, for sure re 5th year players. QB management is going to be the biggest challenge going forward. I think Fields made the right decision -- he wasn't going to play this year and, depending on what Fromm does, may not have played NEXT year. Your ideal program rotation is to just keep hitting on QB stars and shove them off to the NFL in 3 years and get the next dude in. Everyone knows they're gonna wait 1 year. Two years MAY be ok, but 3 is too much.

[WingsFan]

I just want to say If Harbaugh tries to acquire Felipe Franks im going to be pissed. I don't like this smoke out there. Or is he expecting Joe to transfer? Not good either way...

[iam416]

Trust in HARBAUGH!!! However, Franks was a big-time QB recruit that chose an SEC school. Hard to imagine HARBAUGH!!!! going after someone who was surely paid a fuckton.

[WingsFan]

Wasn't FL better after he was injured, I admit I haven't watched a ton of him but no!

[iam416]

Yes. They were going to lose to Kentucky until he was injured. It was pretty astounding. They still should have lost, but they were dead and buried until he got hurt.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Great reading the last couple of pages of posts. A lot of pertinent shit.

I'd bet if Franks is in the picture as a grad transfer, Milton has had a talk with the coaching staff about a transfer. Milton is prime QB meat for that. He may not start at a top P5 program but he damn well could start at the 2nd tier level of the BIG ..... or most other conferences as well.

He's from FL, he was a sought after borderline 5* pro-style QB. I don't know who's shopping for a QB during the off-season but he'd be a great pick-up for somebody and a loss for M's QB room.

I don't think DM is a lock to start 2020 and Harbaugh loves to give his QBs some big-time competition. Don't know Franks well enough to say if he'd push any of M's QBs. I'd rather Milton stay. He's a load as a runner, not so sure about his passing game what little of it we've seen.

Right now, I think DM is a better fit with Gattis' offense more for the reason that's he's had a shit-ton of reps in it. I also like his work ethic, toughness and energy.

[WM Wolverine]

The talent differential is critical but what is a lil surprising is that it's trending to get worse, not better. All season, I've noticed M's defense was too heavy on 3-stars and not having enough potential NFL talent on it. For most of the season it played above its talent though it was very apparent on Saturday. Don Brown was able to coach around his lack of DT's against Sparty, Notre Dame, Penn State but it was obvious the Buckeyes OL could move around M's defensive line at will. It bears repeating, the talent on defense is trending worse with every recruiting class that graduates and that needs fixed to be competitive against the Buckeyes.

FWIW I don't see Tarik Black having an NFL opportunity this season, he's a 4-year guy that could bail early though DPJ & Nico will be drafted if they want to... Shea didn't look 'right' as a ball carrier all season, zero lateral quickness that he had some even in '18. Highlights are there that show he had more ability to scramble and run for first downs. Having someone like McCaffrey will help open the offense up, or we could just a free agent like the Buckeyes did with Fields.

re: 2020 - M will be less talented, with more question marks (QB, OL), but I expect the same result (9-3/10-2, NY6 bowl) thanks to an easier schedule.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, just posted your take on M 2020 and beyond to mgoboard. I put some snark-free editorial comments within the body of your post. Responses should be interesting. You can tell within the first sentence whether you want to read them or not. There will be some of those along with other good takes on your perspective from knowledgeable and respectful M fans who post there.

https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/looking...rs-perspective

[iam416]

WM and I are largely on the same page. He's probably the only one here who follows recruiting more closely than I do. He is EXACTLY right (though, I think their schedule next year may be sneaky hard).

Over JH's 5 years, there have been some certified badasses on defense. Hurst. Bush. Several CBs. Even another DL or two. I don't see anyone on that defense that scares me. I don't see anyone on NEXT season's defense that scares me. That's a ginormous problem if you want to go beyond 9-3/10-2.

[WM Wolverine]

Exactly, the talent that is departing to the NFL (less each season) isn't being replenished via recruiting. Hutchinson, Ambry Thomas returning are very good talents but they aren't elite like M had just a year ago. I see elite talent on defense being replace by very good talent and very good talent being replaced by good talent and that trend isn't slowing down.

[WM Wolverine]

Cam McGrone, Daxton Hill... They aren't being supported with enough talent around them, Don Brown usually has had very disruptive DE's/ LB's.

[hack]

At this point I'm feeling 10-2 next year, with losses to Minnesota and OSU. Revisit if Fleck moves on. I sure hope he doesn't, because he could be a fit here if Harbaugh doesn't stay. If I'm Harbaugh I just may find myself after next year ready to take the next NFL opportunity that comes up. Unless he sees the path to change through paid players, he probably doesn't want to find himself in this vice for another 10-15 years.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent ...... I'm enjoying the responses at mgoboard. Must read shit ..... especially the one about your "fucking smugness,' and what's this about "HARBAUGH!!!" CLueless. Although the fucking smugness stuff is spot on.

[iam416]

The only thing I'd take issue with in the comments is their (IMO) exceptionally rosy view of the 2019 OL recruiting class as it relates to 2020 performance. Yes, I know they signed some solid players, but none of them are elite. They're all in the 100 to 300 range. And look, maybe M struck the motherload with those kids, but on average what you're looking at for kids in that ballpark is what Mayfield did this year -- who was in that range and in his 2nd year. That's not bad, but it's not stellar. I expect Mayfield will continue to improve and be a damn good tackle by the time he's done, but he wasn't in 2020. He was meh. So, to be clear, I'm not saying those guys won't be good, but I am saying that I would bet against them being particularly good in 2020. What I would expect to see is 2/3 young kids + 1/2 vets fill in the 3 (or 4) spots. And they'll struggle a little in 2020 and eventually get there by 2021.

And look, I know what Warriner does. But Warriner's 2014 OL had 4 NFL dudes on it. Maybe he gets the M kids there and maybe he gets them there ahead of schedule. I don't know enough about them to say if they are the exception. I'm simply following what I think is the rule -- I wouldn't feel great counting on 2nd year OL unless they're legit elite kids. JMO. There's gonna be a drop off of some note (IMO).

As a comparison to OSU, I think Harry Miller can maybe play next year -- I think he is probably an elite interior OL. If Ryan Jacoby had to play next year I would be absolutely panicked. Or for that matter, if Vimahi wasn't off on his mormon mission and had to play, that'd be no bueno.

So, yeah, I feel 100% confident with my assessment of the OL. If you want to go starry-eyed on the 2019 class that's fine, but you're probably lucky to get 1 really good year out of that.

Other than that, it's too be expected.