Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season

[AlabamAlum]

I don't really get the "set the terms" thing. It's a message board. You aren't obligated to respond to anything. On either side. Especially if it's a rehash. We (myself included, of course) just continue to beat the dead horses on which no consensus will be reached until there is nothing left but bloody puddles. Then we start over again.

[iam416]

Speaking of which, give my best to Dr. Wolverine.

[lineygoblue]

Sanristill is back at WR as well. He and Ronnie Bell are pretty much equal in skills.

And if I may, .. I still think the point made by some regarding how Auburn has handled Alabama in the last 10 years is reasonable and applies. Even though the Tide out recruits Auburn, the Tigers have found a way to beat Bama more than Michigan has beaten OSU. Michigan had chances for wins that for one reason or another, did not happen. Some of that was coaching. Some of that was outside influences. Some of it was softness on the part of M's players. Auburn finds a way to do it. Michigan does not. That used to be part of the series. Even in years when OSU was 'down', they found a way to beat us. Same applies in reverse. That's what made it a true rivalry. It is not a rivalry today.

Harbaugh cannot be fired for the single reason of "he can't beat OSU". He just can't. Its a ridiculous reason to fire the man. The next guy cannot guarantee a win next year in Columbus no more than Santa can bring me a new Escalade this year. The problems are what they are, and only a gritty, determined and disciplined effort, with guys playing over their heads, can deliver a win over OSU at this point. Yeah, some luck in our favor wouldn't hurt. And it doesn't mean we're "accepting a loser" by accepting these facts, or by keeping Harbaugh.

[froot loops]

I think you guys could have won the game Saturday without even playing over their head. Way too many mistakes. As it is you got to within two scores in the 4th quarter. He should get rid of the wildcat pronto, Harbaugh is stubbornly holding on to a decade-old fad that gives key plays away. OSU's eyes light up in delight when they trot that out.

[iam416]

DPJ (12)	Young (7)
Solomon (23)	Okudah (8)
Ruiz (47)	Browning (11)
Vilain (57)	Wade (17)
Singleton (79)	Wyatt Davis (24)
Thomas (90)	Grimes (41) (transfer Fla)
Anthony (106)	Dobbins (46)
Filiaga (112)	Myers (53)
Black (116)	Martell (56) (transfer Mia)
McCaffrey (123)	Pryor (63) (transfer ND)
Collins (138)	Garrett (68) (rotates in at DL)
Martin (181)	Sheffield (JUCO)Werner (277)
Jeter (289)	Munford (285)
Hall (301)	Gardiner (796)
St-Juste (338)	Haubeil (NA)
Stueber (365)
Woods (383)
Hawkins (425)
Honigford (441)
Paea (459)
Paye (487)
Mason (817)
Taylor (918)
Robbins (NA)

So, this is what I was talking about when I said that in some ways Saturday was a battle of 2017 classes. M signed a great class in 2017. Essentially 20 top 300 kids. UFM signed an all-time elite class for him -- in terms of sheer elite players, but not quite the depth. Just look at them side-by-side.

[hack]

I think you guys could have won the game Saturday without even playing over their head. Way too many mistakes. As it is you got to within two scores in the 4th quarter. He should get rid of the wildcat pronto, Harbaugh is stubbornly holding on to a decade-old fad that gives key plays away. OSU's eyes light up in delight when they trot that out.

It's harder still to talk about this, but I think this is really where it's at. At minimum, go play a clean, mistake-free game with no shoelace bullshit. They didn't do that, and there is enough smoke to wonder about fire in the department of leadership and readiness. It also falls in the category of ``doesn't prep well for OSU", in that those kinds of mental errors were common in September when the scheme didn't work, went away as the coaching staff found its footing, and then came back in this game. It's awfully hard to be certain about qualitative stuff like this but IMO they don't go into this game believing they can win. Some of it may be explained by the fact that Harbaugh doesn't much recruit Ohio, whereas Hoke did and perhaps played competitive games against OSU because of that.

[iam416]

It's harder still to talk about this, but I think this is really where it's at.

Yeah, that's the conversation that could, if you go a certain way, lead to "fire JH" and that's where no one wants to be (or is) -- except maybe Hanni.

[hack]

JH doesn't have to be perfect or all things to all players in order to be worthy of retention in the job. And that's before asking who you can get that's better.

I think that Harbaugh should be given time to work this stuff out. He's proven able to do so in the past. This could be a blind spot he just can't see. Dunno.

[iam416]

This is from Bill Greene today and is topical. Take it for what it's worth:

OVERVIEW: I was able to speak to someone I respect greatly about the difference between Ohio State and Michigan on the field the past two seasons. This person is on the Michigan side of things and won't be named and neither will his title or position. But suffice to say, I think a lot of this person's football knowledge and he is very close to the rivalry from the Michigan side of things. I really wanted to know his take on the rivalry and how things got to the point where OSU is winning these games in blowout fashion. Here is his side of things.

OVERALL TALENT: "With all due respect to you recruiting guys, and you all do a great job, but throw out the recruiting rankings. Look at the NFL draft results. You guys are ranking children, while the NFL is ranking men with who they pick and how high they take them. Go do the research on overall draft picks and top-100 draft picks the past four years. We don't know how 2020 will shake out but my guess is that Ohio State is going to be Ohio State once again. And Michigan will be Michigan. There is an overall talent edge to Ohio State and it's significant. Michigan can have an outlier year but Ohio State does it every year. Props to Urban Meyer."

THE RESULTS OF THE NFL DRAFTS:

2016: Ohio State had 12 total drafted and 10 in the first-100. Josh Perry would have been 11 but came in at 102. Michigan had 3 players drafted and one was in the top-100.

2017: Ohio State had 7 total drafted and 6 were top-100. Michigan had 11 total drafted and 5 were top-100. This was the outlier he was talking about.

2018: Ohio State had 7 total drafted and 5 were top-100. Michigan had 2 players drafted and one was top-100.

2019: Ohio State had 7 total drafted and 5 were top-100. Michigan had 5 players drafted and 4 were top-100.

TOTALS: Ohio State has 35 players drafted with 26 in the top-100. Michigan has 21 drafted and 11 were top-100. Pretty hard to argue the talent differential when you look at it from that point of view.

HIS SECOND POINT ON THE TALENT GAP: "What is the most important position in football and it's not even up for debate in my book? Obviously, it's the quarterback. I would argue it's the single most important position in ANY team sport and I think you would agree with me. So if the talent has been basically the same for each team with one exception, why are close games now blowouts? You might argue with me and your fans might argue with me, but there is no comparison in who you have on the field the past few years and who you had before Fields and Haskins. I love college football so I love a guy like J.T. Barrett even as a Michigan guy. He was a warrior. But let me go against the UDFA every day of the week rather than an NFL first-round guy. With Barrett in there, we had a chance to keep you guys under control offensively. In 2017, we were fine until Barrett got hurt and Haskins had to come in. That was a one-point game going to the 4th quarter. In 2016, that game was decided by the spot of the football. In the past two years, we are dead in the water going against an NFL QB, rather than a non-NFL QB. We can play you guys with a Barrett-type, but we had no shot against Haskins and Fields. So when you guys took the next step in improving your QB spot and you add that to the obvious talent edge, it was game-over for us.

HIS FINAL THOUGHTS: "And as I look at the guys you are recruiting now, I don't see you guys going backwards at the QB position anytime soon. And you won't be recruiting average players either. Going upward in the QB position took you guys from a team that was a cut below Alabama and Clemson, and now you guys are right there with the best in college football. For Michigan, we are not where you are obviously and we are top 10-15. The only way to change that is to recruit better players and develop them into NFL-caliber guys. You will probably laugh but I'm 100% behind Jim Harbaugh but I believe there are changes needed on the coaching staff to add a few better recruiters, national type recruiters. I'm not too sure the rest of college football would even look at a few of our guys. I like the Gattis hire and think he is going to be able to take our offense to where it needs to be. I'm not at all sold on Don Brown as the same type of coach for our defense."

This is a guy I speak with a couple times per month and he's someone I respect a lot. Former college player. Has coached at the college level as well.

He is very smart and very analytical and I always listen to him. Even when we might disagree there is still respect from both sides.

[hack]

Valuable content there. Thanks. I think there are players you can really win with in college and Michigan's small corners come to mind, but the points about QB sound spot-on. Open-minded to the Don Brown comment too. I think he loses you as many games as he wins. I'd be content with a less innovative DC. But I don't think the DC is the determining factor, really. The problems are higher up.

[iam416]

Yeah, I think the best thing about that summary is calling attention to the QB position. And there are several interesting dynamics going on there -- UFM's love of Tebow/Barrett type QBs; Ryan Day pushing harder for more passing (Haskins), HARBAUGH!!!'s reputation as the "QB Whisperer" and both teams starting 5* transfer QBs.

[froot loops]

OSU not missing a beat with a multitude of different quarterbacks is a big change in college football. A lot of the successful schools have been able to navigate this sea change, if you can't you are going to get left behind. Gone are the days where you are waiting for these quarterbacks to be seniors to cash in with a big year.

[hack]

QB play is unquestionably a mystery. Soon there will be enough data points to more fully support the idea that his rep there was overblown. But I wonder if it goes back to the same intangibles. He's older now and he's different now. We don't see him doing the QB pads pounding thing before games. He's not been the actual QB coach of his own team since I think Stanford.

[iam416]

OSU not missing a beat with a multitude of different quarterbacks is a big change in college football. A lot of the successful schools have been able to navigate this sea change, if you can't you are going to get left behind. Gone are the days where you are waiting for these quarterbacks to be seniors to cash in with a big year.

WRT to this particular point, it's impossible not to point how assbackwards lucky Ohio State was. They should have started Tate Martell (or Chugnov) this year. That was what UFM recruited. But, the portal shit flies wide open. Kirby decided to stick it out with Fromm. Ryan Day has just had a guru type year with Haskins. Fields' QB coach -- Quincy Avery -- loves Ryan Day. It's a confluence of events that changes Ohio State's offense from good to holy fucking shit good.

I don't think you want to make a living on that type of program approach. Now, with the portal it may be that is a more viable alternative. But, dude, it's playing with fire.

That said, M had roughly the same situation for 2018. They sort of fell assbackwards into Shea. And things didn't go quite as well for them -- I think they went well enough -- but not as well as Fields.

[froot loops]

The transfer portal, the prevalence of grad transfers, the willingness of the NCAA to grant waivers and the new redshirt rule has rendered a lot of what we used to think about college football as moot. Unless the NCAA changes the rules, there will be more reliance on the Justin Fields of the world. The ability of coaching staffs to integrate talented transfers immediately is a necessity. The ability to integrate true freshman immediately is also a necessity, there is no sense in counting on production of a 5th year senior unless it is a developmental guy.