Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season

[froot loops]

It was a Jim Harbaugh problem on Saturday. He was not good.

[hack]

I think there's a lot to the idea that Harbaugh's always going to be able to beat who he should but rarely who he shouldn't. Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, etc. etc. He may be just a bit too weird and stubborn. But I think WF's comment there nails it. Michigan's not worse -- OSU's taken a step up and away, and in a period that's more winner-take-all than most, that's exactly what's happening.

[Tom W]

Yes it did (from the highlights I seen)

That's not entirely true. For sure, there was plenty of scarlet and gray- it's always been that way, but it was nowhere near halfway. In fact it seemed to be significantly less saturated than the last several times they came to town.

[Jeff Buchanan]

That's not entirely true. For sure, there was plenty of scarlet and gray- it's always been that way, but it was nowhere near halfway. In fact it seemed to be significantly less saturated than the last several times they came to town.

That was my take too. I've seen it worse ...... and it was a while back when the meme that the Big House gets filled with osu fans when the buckeyes come to visit. It's over blown. There were plenty of M fans. I was surprised given the weather that the stands appeared to be filled by KO. It was loud.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On the Michigan isn't elite notion ....... well, depends on how you define that. If you read the mgo diary that chronicled M's record by coach and compared it with osu's M has a historical 65% win rate compared to osu's 75%. The tressel/ufm/day years have produced a staggering 92% win rate. WM's point that only a handful of schools have better winning records during the Harbuagh years than M is an important one. M is plenty good and in my time, especially recently, an osu win always brings out the hand wringing, fire the coach bull shit.

On that subject - fire coach Harbaugh - there was a lot of that starting around 3:30p Saturday afternoon and it continues with multiple posts trying to support that position. WTKA call-ins were full of that talk. One of the objectives - in fact the primary one - of the mgo diarist that I discussed and posted a link to his articles was to throw cold water on the hot notion among the M fan base that firing Harbaugh was warranted. Here's what he said:

.

Then he used this data to support his position:

Bennie Oosterbaan: 57%

Bump Elliot: 53%

Bo Schembechler: 79%

Gary Moeller: 73%

Lloyd Carr: 75%

Rich Rodriguez: 57%

Brady Hoke: 60%

Jim Harbaugh: 73%

Then ........

The key takeaway is that Harbaugh actually is performing better than our historical average, and basically on par with Moeller and Carr

So, yes, the notion to fire Harbaugh is stupid. I don't think anyone here really embraces that idea so I'm not pointing fingers. Unfortunately, the diarist takes a detour and assigns causation for Harbuagh's 0-5 record v. osu to "structural gaps" in recruiting between osu and M because "it isn't crazy to think osu is providing impermissible benefits to recruits." talent went postal as I actually expected him to and provided a stout defense of osu's cleanliness on the recruiting trail.

I think talent and I have reached an agreeable position that we have different views of why M and osu are where they are as football programs and why JH is 0-5 v. osu.

I think Froot's points that Michigan has been "bad" in The Game and was especially bad in 2018 and 19 are spot on. He's laid out why he takes that position. What he has said is fully supportable and it's good to have eyes here that aren't blinded by maze and blue glasses.

So, M fans have to own it. M is repeatedly getting ass-raped by osu and that isn't going to change until the things we've discussed here get addressed and corrected. Some of them are structural and out of Harbaugh's control but most aren't. M isn't going to win BTCs or go to the CFP anytime soon until those things are addressed and corrected. I think Harbuagh knows this and he and his staff know what things need to be addressed and corrected. Firing him would be stupid and set M up for another decade in the wilderness.

[iam416]

I think Froot's points that Michigan has been "bad" in The Game and was especially bad in 2018 and 19 are spot on

I agree and 2018 and 2019 are also different. I thought the coaches had a horrible day in 2018. I thought the players had a bad day in 2019 and the coaches were a little meh. I could go into why I think they lost, but, again, you get sidetracked from that if you're into "the game is rigged; nothing matters" territory.

talent went postal as I actually expected him to and provided a stout defense of osu's cleanliness on the recruiting trail.

My defense was so spirited only because it was you that was endorsing that argument. There are others here who do it all the time. Such is life. The whole of Mgo had bought it into. Such is life. Brian had a totally pathetic post on the game. Such is life. I think you're a little more thoughtful than that. I also think your persuadable, to a degree.

Otherwise, I don't much care what M fans think. If they want to forever throw the towel in until NIL emerges, then so be it. But even then, when OSU beats them there's going to something else. There's always another excuse. Always. 11 Warriors does an article called "Threat Level M" -- it's a poor version of "Michigan Monday" -- but at the bottom of their threat level meter is a green box with "talking SAT scores" in it. That's when you know M is no threat. So, I completely enjoy the Loser's Dirge, whatever it may be in any given year. This year's Loser Dirge happens to be cheating. Always a classic.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I can guarantee you the people that matter aren't throwing in the towel and I don't care about M fans who want to do that - resign to losing to the bucknutz. That's weak.

But there are obstacles. I think after a few days of jawing, astute folks know what they are. I'm not sure all of them are surmountable. Most are.

Keep working the problems.

[iam416]

I'll say this about M going forward. I like the coaching staff, mostly. I think Gattis is going to be pretty good. They do some pretty good things to create looks. He knew OSU was going to come out and sit back in zone and take away the run, and they torched it for a half. When OSU changed up and started go more man with more pressure, he adjusted somewhat to the running game, but he was really constrained by score at that point. I think Don Brown did a nice job schematically this year to deal with glaring deficiencies at certain positions.

Recruiting-wise, though, they have to own the problems at DT. They have to own the QB situation (which turned out fine). They're going to have to own the OL situation next year (which, I think is turning into a vintage Warriner "low star/modestly higher production" unit -- good for beating Indiana, not so good for beating OSU.

Player development/recruiting-wise, I think they need to better with their WRs. And I think it's worth noting that HARBAUGH!!! signed a monster class in 2017. It had a fair amount of high end talent and a ton of overall depth. 30 recruits. I think 6 started (with McCaffrey eventually starting in 2020). That's not good. The 2018 class was light in numbers and talent and the 2019 class is better in numbers but still light on elite talent. The game on the field on Saturday was, in a lot ways, a matchup of OSU's #2 class in 2017 and M's #5 class. And, I guess throw in two transfer QBs.

I'm not going to shit on any specific players, but the only ones on defense that I'd take for OSU are Hutchinson (in the DL rotation for sure), McGrone (probably 2-deep for now, but he'll be good) and Hill (I guess, Thomas, but he's not starting). On offense, I think Bredesen starts and I'd Runyan for depth at OT. I would also take Nico Collins (he's better than Austin Mack for sure).

Next year is going to be interesting. Let's set aside the transfer portal. With no transfers M loses at least 3 OL and potentially 4 (I don't know what Ruiz will do -- I assume an interior OL will come back). The guys that replace him are not impressive to these eyes. IMO, they'll suffer a big dropoff. They also could lose all of their WRs. And as much as Ronnie Bell looked good, how's he gonna look when he's the only guy you have to worry about? I guess Giles Jackson could develop into a nice multi-purpose weapon. And, I do like their RBs and I do think McCaffrey will be as good or better than Shea.

On defense, you lose some key players, especially in your secondary. If Thomas goes early then that unit is decimated and not likely to recover by 2020. Losing most of their LB corps also hurts (I like McGrone) and it doesn't seem like the cavalry is on its way for DT.

My December 2019 take for 2020 M, Team Number 4,592,203 or whatever is that it's going to be noticeably less talented than the 2019 version. I think that's a very bad look for HARBAUGH!!! in Year 6. I think after 6 years we will still say that the 2016 team -- the team built by HOKE -- was his most talented (and best) team. I think the arc/trend of his recruiting is downward -- he had some very good classes early and now, man, I don't even know. The 2021 in-state class is really good. When I said I'd give him one more year I'd mostly want to see how he does recruiting in 2021. I already know what he can do everywhere else. I want to see if he can reverse the trend and kill it in 2021. He has to get Rocco Spindler. He has to get Donovan Edwards. If he doesn't, then I don't know what to say. And OSU is going to come at them hard. Spindler, especially.

So, the State of the Program as I see it is that they are trending a bit down -- if you look at 2016 as the peak, 2018 as 2nd best and 2019 as maybe 3rd (with the excusable valley in 2017). 2020 is going to be worse than 2019 and maybe worse than 2015, and the recruiting trend line doesn't suggest a huge reversal. And, please note -- I took care to describe recruiting in terms of what M has done recently -- my assessment is independent of the previous discussion -- it's measured against what HOKE and HARBAUGH have done, and relative to those best year -- trending down.

There you go Bucahanan -- 10,000 fucking words. Eat your heart out!

[hack]

If you agree not to talk about the things talent does not want talked about, you get some good content. Why an OSU fan should set the tone on a Michigan forum is a question for another time, but you can't fault him for walking through that open door.

[iam416]

I'd rather not talk further about entrenched positions that were beaten to death. I know where you stand on some issues and you I. We could restate the same shit again and maybe you could throw in a "you'll never know what it feels like to win clean" for old time's sake. But the positions are immutable at this point.

I haven't really heard what folks think about 2020. Thoughts on the general trend of the program or general state of the program are extremely mutable -- often on weekly or even by quarter basis. It's more interesting to me.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, I'd like to copy and post your take anonymously at Magnus' site TTB and at mgo board. There are a handful of good posters there who I'd love to hear from on your view. BTW, I think you are correct about 2020's team performance. I see 3-4 losses. The home schedule sucks.

[iam416]

Oh, I don't care. They'll shit on it, but as long as it's not under my stealth Mgo user name, then what do I care!

[iam416]

BTW, I think you are correct about 2020's team performance. I see 3-4 losses. The home schedule sucks.

You know, HARBAUGH!!!'s teams play so well at home (except against OSU) that I think they could scratch out another 9 or 10 wins. Wisconsin will lose a lot. Penn State will be a problem, but man, are you betting against HARBAUGH!!! at home against Penn State? I think their road games could be problematic. I'm not sure what Washington will have, but that won't be easy -- I can't remember the last time M won a road game against a P12 team (OSU, fyi, is in Eugene next year...super). Minnesota is going to be solid -- if they keep at least 1 of their WRs then they'll be a real problem. OSU will be a huge problem.

So, if you told me 9-3 then I could buy it. I'd probably set the O/U at 8.5 wins. But, I just don't think they'll be as talented or good as they were in 2019. However, some of that depends on the QB and how many WRs leave early.

[hack]

I definitely get that you'd rather not. I wouldn't want to either if I were you. It's weird to expect to come to a Michigan board and set the terms like that, but you've got a reasonable track record of success doing just that.

That said, regardless of underlying causes I have nothing but shades of grey to add to your projection there. I think some position groups are not quite exciting but still fine, including DT given Hinton had the kind of year you want a five-star freshman to have in showing some hints and making some good plays in November.

But also key to consider next year's schedule. Lots easier than this years. If you think that Michigan can go to Washington and get a win from a program with a new HC coming off a 6-win season, you probably think they have a pretty good shot going into the OSU game undefeated. The hardest road games on the sked are @Washington and possibly @Minny. I personally think it's more likely that Michigan goes into the OSU game with one loss. In recent years that's been sufficient for it to be a playoffs contender going into that game, and that pretend-contender status transforms the perception about the program. Michigan fans are generally happy going into the OSU game with one loss and a chance to beat OSU, and media generaly declare the program on the right track as well.

I also think that next year Michigan has a chance to get the most out of its offensive talent in ways he has not in years. There will be continuity, for once, assuming Gattis stays. It will be nice to not have to learn hard lessons in September and rebuild the offense in October. It would be nice to go into the OSU game having a handful of plays they've run successfully more than 100 times for three months, instead of more than maybe 50 times for a month. That's how you get your ability to execute your stuff up to the next level you need it to be at.

So, in the end, who knows? There are years like this one where the schedule leaves Michigan doomed to a better-than-it-looks 9-3 record, and years like next where 11-1 is on the table and results in excess praise.

[iam416]

I definitely get that you'd rather not. I wouldn't want to either if I were you. It's weird to expect to come to a Michigan board and set the terms like that, but you've got a reasonable track record of success doing just that.

It's not really setting terms. It's just saying, "agree to disagree" at the end of a discussion. I do that all that all the time when an issue/discussion as resolved itself one way or the other (agreement or immutable disagreement). You should try it.

I also think that next year Michigan has a chance to get the most out of its offensive talent in ways he has not in years. There will be continuity, for once, assuming Gattis stays.

I could see my estimation underselling the offense. If you only lose Collins, then I think I probably do undersell the offense. But I think you could lose Collins, DPJ, Black and Ruiz (in order of likelihood). If you lose all 4 then I'm not sold on it. I think M had a really good OL this year. The guys I see in the 2-deep I don't think are really good. I think M had really good WRs this year. I don't see really good WRs in the two-deep. Now, McCaffrey may be the goods. And Gattis and DM working together may be the bees knees. I could see that. But, I have enough concerns re other positions that I'm not particularly confident in the offense.

Defensively, I think Don Brown will do what he does. But, I don't think they'll be a particularly talented group. They'll have maybe 3 difference makers, at best.