Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season

[Dr. Strangelove]

All it takes to recruit well is a fat man wheezing in a recruit's living room about what Bo was like.

But then Urban and his filthy lucre show up and tempt another young man into sin

[iam416]

The unfortunate State of the M program is that HARBAUGH!!!! was able to field a pretty competitive/very good team in 2016 with Hoke recruits. By 2018 and 2019 with his own recruits, his teams just can't compete with Ohio State. He can't recruit. Hoke, god bless him, could recruit and landed a few really good classes. If he could coach he'd still be at M and he'd still be landing top 5 or 6 classes. But, alas, he can't coach.

[lineygoblue]

Oh, where did you go, Derrick Green?.... :::sigh:::

[Jeff Buchanan]

............Anyway, we spent a long time talking about where M football is, but it isn't until Ohio State blasts M (again) that we're into CHEATERZ!!!! argument the renders the entire discussion moot (and is a pitiful resignation that M football should, more or less, go the way of Chicago).

Let's go back to the OP from an mgo diarist that I posted appropriately, IMO, in this thread. In it he demonstrates that a significant talent gap exists between M and osu that has widened more recently and that could explain why osu is dominating this M/osu series. He goes on, unfortunately, to speculatively assign causation for this gap to "it's not crazy to think osu provides benefits to select HS recruits to gain an incremental edge in recruiting." I sort-of ignored that part because what really interested me was the data that demonstrated a talent gap between osu and M. Despite Froot's aversions to the contrary, the skill level of osu's players, especially osu's OL, RB and receivers v. M's DL was obvious.

Brown's scheme was fine. osu's offense played better than M's defense and some of that, not all of it, can be assigned to talent gaps. I think most of us here, reasonable folks that we are, are comfortable with Jim Harbaugh when it comes right down to it. We know who he is. He is the right guy to be the HC at M right now. I still contend there are legitimate systemic obstacles JH faces to winning championships - which by extension means beating osu. You know what they are based on what I've posted in the last dozen pages and others have added. One of them is recruiting and my view, which not all, including you, do not share, is that it is undertaken in an environment where there is a likelihood that some programs are providing benefits that the NCAA would consider impermissible as an inducement to sign. I think this is something he deals with among other player under-performance issues that he and/or his staff can be properly assigned blame for.

Your response to the post was to peg the extreme meter, as Tom notes, unravel and go postal in defense of your beloved osu and the cleanliness of the football program. I'm used to that..... and frankly, I'm sympathetic to it. I know who you are and the kind of football fan that lives inside your normal self. So, I think you have over-sold the notion that M fans, specifically those of us here, making excuses for Harbaugh. In the process it's possible you became over-focused on ridiculing M fans for letting Harbaugh off the hook instead of blaming him for the misery of 5 years of losses to osu and ....... "Just acknowledge the futility of it all, call it a day and forget that M football ever existed.......or "go the Chicago route." None of that is going to happen here, although Brian thinks that is exactly what will happen. I think he makes some good points but I don't agree with all of what he has to say. https://mgoblog.com/content/obligation#read-more

[froot loops]

This man is on the right path:

[iam416]

Brian's post is about as snarky and pathetic as one can possibly imagine. As an FYI, here's a list of online degrees you can at MICHIGAN -- https://online.umich.edu/online-degrees/

He's given up. Good. I love it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Can't wait to read more of that after the JUMP!!!

[froot loops]

Jeff - there is a talent gap, but it doesn't excuse the piss poor effort and all the mistakes. They played like crap Saturday.

There seems to be a huge development gap, OSU really wanted DPJ as well but Harbaugh out recruited them for him. How many drops did DPJ have? Harbaugh had a 5 star defensive tackle in Aubrey Solomon who is now playing at Tennessee, why did he leave? Nobody was going into this year thinking OSU was going to be some juggernaut team.

[iam416]

Buchanan:

Back when this was a serious discussion this is what I said:

4. ASSERTION: HARBAUGH!!!! is not an elite recruiter.

1. BASIS: Using the top 100 247 Composite as the arbitrary cut-off for "elite" type players (look, I have to use a cutoff somewhere):
   
   2017-20 Ohio State: 36
   2017-20 M: 10
   
   It's possible M could add another for 2020 via either an actual commit or a rise in rankings. But, that's the 4-year snapshot for recruits heading into the 2021 season. Ryan Day, in his first year of recruiting, has 8 top 100 kids signed and that includes a devastating reversal of fortune with Bijan Robinson. EIGHT. First year. And that doesn't include Justin Fields, who was a total Ryan Day "recruit." And I think he's almost certain to do better in 2021 (gets a huge boost from a really strong year in Ohio).
   
   So, that's what the aggregate starts to look like when you are consistently top 3-5 vs consistently top 10. And that's not even delving into positional recruiting that, e.g., leaves a team recklessly short at DT.
   
   The cavalry isn't on the way, at least vis-a-vis Ohio State.
2. RELEVANCE: He will struggle to consistently beat Ohio State, let alone win a CFP. His ceiling is likely 2^nd in the East in most seasons.

So, if the blog issue is merely about "demonstrat[ing] that a significant talent gap exists between M and osu that has widened more recently and that could explain why osu is dominating this M/osu series" then no shit. That was a point I raised awhile ago. It's a point I raise every recruiting cycle. It's a point I raise when the MGO faithful mock stargazers (I must say, I'd like to see how they reconcile stargazer mockery with buying the best players -- that'd be a neat trick).

I'll also note that no one raised the UNFAIR playing field point in response to this -- rather, several just flat out agreed. In fact, on poster said "INDISPUTABLE".

So, I think you have over-sold the notion that M fans, specifically those of us here, making excuses for Harbaugh.

Most posters here do not. That's not to say there isn't a narrative that emerges on M message boards after every OSU loss that excuses your coach.

And finally, I've never said Ohio State is some sort of pure as driven snow clean. What I've always maintained is that they're not spending $200,000 on a recruit. That is the critical assertion of the blog. Period. And there's no evidence of it. NONE. The Rashan Gary point is critical. The Chris Hinton and Aubrey Solomon points are critical. M lands a ton fair amount of top 100 players (or they did). We know M wouldn't dream of paying them, so that means there are players out there that aren't on the take. I think you grossly overestimate how many kids actively have their hand out. I really do.

Finally, you can talk about other things when kids get there all you want, but getting them there is 99% of the battle. And I'm happy to talk about the outstanding job Ohio State does getting players in the program to a place where they will be successful after football. UFM did wonders in that regard.

[iam416]

There seems to be a huge development gap,

I don't know about huge, but DPJ is a very good example as is Solomon.

OSU really wanted DPJ as well but Harbaugh out recruited them for him.

Yeah, I was bummed when they lost out on DPJ. He didn't know Zach Smith was gonna be gone and Hartline was going to in. But, shit, two years under Hartline and I think he could've been a first round pick. And that's shit kids notice. They notice that someone like Terry McLaurin was a low 4* that worked his ass off in the program and has ended up an absolute steal for the Redskins. They notice that Michael Thomas -- another low 4*/high 3* was a total fucking bum for two years before he finally bought in, put in the work and turned himself into the best goddamn WR in the league. I mean, if I'm a WR why in the name of fuck would I pick M over OSU?

Oh well, getting DPJ was going to be next to impossible. Was always curious to see how his career progressed and it has been a disappointment. He should have taken the money.

[hack]

Progress here, now that we can talk not just about recruiting but what it takes to keep kids eligible once they arrive. I don't know that "getting them there is 99% of the battle", but it's certainly most of it, given things like a Chase Young suspension that got him back on the field at just the right time. I agree that OSU has ushered many elite recruits through the program without making a downpayment first, but the ones who can command the cash are generally the elite differencemakers and Michigan cannot by definition recruit at that level as OSU can. It also cannot wink and promise that the cash will come after the LOI.

As for Hoke, he should be the DL coach here. Absolutely perfect fit for a program that needs to recruit a little better as well as to find underscouted 3-stars and turn them into Mo Hursts or Willie Henrys. Hoke ticks a number of boxes right away, and if he's not too old by now he'd probably walk right over here.

[Tom W]

You're gonna need a bigger bowl, linesman..

[Jeff Buchanan]

Buchanan:

Back when this was a serious discussion this is what I said:

So, if the blog issue is merely about "demonstrat[ing] that a significant talent gap exists between M and osu that has widened more recently and that could explain why osu is dominating this M/osu series" then no shit.........

Well, the OP started by stating M was never elite and provided a historical review of M's win percentage over time and had M coming in at 65% while osu's historical average was 75% over the same time frame ...... until tressel/ufm/day who combined have achieved a 92% win rate. The reason for that, the OP offers is the widening recruiting gap with the arrival of these specific coaches.

What changed? Are they that much better than M at this game or has M, in the same time period, been hampered by systemic obstacles? You and I know clearly where we each stand on what I consider to be a reasonable question to ask.

After that, he took a different track and talked about cheating. I would have rather he then talk about the reality that there is a concentration of elite CFB players in a small subset of CFB teams, it's anticompetative regardless of why this is so and something ought to be done to make CFB more competitive across conferences.

[iam416]

[Niffla]

It's sad, man. Well if you're a Michigan fan anyway. "The Game" used to be the best rivalry in sports. Now it's just lives off the days when it used to be. I hear it still being claimed as such, but it's a lie to anyone who follows college football with any sort of genuine depth.

It's not even the best rivalry in the sport anymore, let alone in all of sports. I mean is it even the best rivalry in its own conference these days? How can it be? How it can it still be called a rivalry when one program has lost -- what is it now, 16 of the past 17?

The University of Michigan football program is property owned and operated by Ohio State. And Liney was right about the crowd -- absolutely incredible that Michigan can be 9-2 and playing their best football of the year (going into the game anyway) and damn near half or more of the stadium was red.

It's a rivalry in name and past history only.