Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've read a lot about the M/osu game yesterday evening and today. I've said this before: if you want to shit-post hot-takes about Michigan football, e.g., something or someone sucks, you need a good fact based reason for it. Just because you are upset that team A or B beat Michigan doesn't mean whining and venting about isn't going to elicit a response from someone here that calls you out and asks for facts to support your whining.

I recommend that posters here read this very good data driven argument that supports with that data why there is a binary choice for M between maintaining the path Michigan/Harbaugh is currently on that values amateurism and the student athlete or pursuing a path that treats M's football program as a semi-professional enterprise in which players are recruited with money. Which choice one wishes M to pursue will identify whether you are happy with 9-3 and an occasional 10-2, not winning BTCs, not beating osu (not an unreasonable position) or competing on a level playing field with osu, winning the BT, and vying for the CFP. This kind of choice says nothing about your support for or against Harbaugh; selecting pathway A and keeping Harbaugh as M's coach does assume that JH would actually be willing to take the program down pathway B and wade into the CFB waters dictated by it and he may not ....

It is absolutely, 100% a binary decision

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/data-driven-response-fire-harbaugh-and-unacceptable-crowd-what-trade-offs-are-you-willing

[iam416]

Lol. I mean, LMMFAO.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I figured you'd post something like that. Tell us why you think the arguments advanced in that piece aren't to some degree valid.

[iam416]

[iam416]

[WM Wolverine]

I'm afraid of when Harvard realizes they just need to spend more money to buy better players, they've pretty wealthy alums.

[iam416]

[WM Wolverine]

It's nice when the top talent in Florida isn't going to one or two programs and instead going all over the country.

[iam416]

[WM Wolverine]

Same thing in Texas, no one cleaning it all up anymore like was usual by Mack Brown.

[Detroit Dan]

Pure Michigan -- Get with the program, LOOSER

[Jeff Buchanan]

1. We should start with a very strong presumption that all sorts of cheating, and especially under the table financial payments, are rampant in CFB. Why? Because in any system with weak rule/norm enforcement coupled with a 'winner take most' incentive structure, cheating will almost always be rampant (edit: an example of factors that could distort the normal bell curve). CFB has both. NCAA recruiting rule enforcement is exceedingly weak. No incentive to expose the rampant cheating as that would harm the financial value of the product. No power to do real investigations (even if they wanted to). No subpoena power. No perjury punishment, etc., etc. It is also a 'winner take most' system (and far more so than in the past). JH can;t beat OSU or win the Big Ten? National media brands him a loser, despite producing the 7th best win percentage over the past five years. IOW, if you do not make the playoff...you are in the loser column. To get in the 'winner' column you have to win our conference (no more co-champs) and make the playoff.

2. It is not a binary cheating/not cheating situation. Some form of impermissible benefits is probably happening at most places. But it is probably super-charged, institutionalized, and more advanced at certain schools. Yet the fact that some level of impermissible payments happen everywhere create a situation where there are no fully clean programs that could rat out the worst cheaters. And even if someone wanted to rat out say, Clemson or Georgia, when they swoop in at the end with big $$$ to grab your recruit...the NCAA will do nothing. So why bother?

3. We should start with a strong presumption that OSU is cheating (systematic financial payments) in the most advanced and sophisticated ways. Why? Because we really do know that Alabama and Clemson are operating this way. (just one article: https://www.fitsnews.com/2019/04/25/...ap-revelation/). It would not be possible for OSU to be at the same recruiting level as Clemson and Bama level if they were doing nothing beyond a few $500 handshakes and free tats. No way they could compete with Clemson and Alabama for top three classes if Clemson/Bama were offering $300,000 (laundered through a religious org) while OSU were offering 'hey, free tats!' Sorry, but 'come sing Carmen Ohio with us and beat Michigan' is not that same as $300,000.

IOW...the OP gives some powerful statistics suggesting that something drastically changed in OSU's recruiting with Tressel then Meyer. And in a system with lax rule enforcement and 'winner take most' rewards, the most plausible explanation is that OSU, which recruits at the same super-elite level as Alabama and Clemson, took payments and benefits to an entirely different level.

BTW, you may or may not agree with this position. It is still well argued.

WM, Harvard has no expectations that it is going to compete for a CFB play-off spot. Yours is a ridiculous, out of context position to take and offering it as an example of a school that could rise to an elite level in the FBS - currently which it is not a participant - by contributions from its extraordinarily wealthy alumni base does not refute the OP's argument at all.

[Jeff Buchanan]

...... and another late interesting comment on the OP:

I want to believe the narrative that the great football schools are great because they have gone on path B, and the reason we lose to OSU is mostly that we at least have not yet sold our souls, as it may be some kind of consolation.

I'm not seeing it in the data. I see that OSU out-recruited us. I see that sometimes recruiting changed/improved with a new coach at various schools (...including JH)

What part of the data says we're clean? All the same evidence is there - new coach, jump in recruiting. Many other schools can't match the level of recruiting we have.

What part of the data says why we regularly lose to schools we've out-recruited, but can't beat schools that out-recruit us?

I think we have to examine other hypothesis as well. None of these seem any less supported by the data.

Maybe we are a nebraska: the once perennial blue blood that is just not as attractive anymore due to an extended downturn.

Maybe we are a texas, USC, or florida state, where even with great recruiting (regardless of being clean or dirty) we should just be performing better for the talent we have.

Maybe we are a stanford, where our academic requirements are the reason we cant consistently land top 5 classes.

There are always going to be those who take the position that the winningest CFB programs since the oughts provide impermissible (under the NCAA rules) benefits to land elite recruits. Fans of those programs will vociferously deny their teams win because they provide them.

I don't think there is any question that in the modern age - and probably like it was in Yost's time - teams that consistently win - not the teams that have a win that's a blip - have a talent advantage. Fans can see the recruiting data since around 1999 that provides a strong correlation between consistent winning and recruiting the talent to do so. In the case of osu and M, there's a talent gap as measured by recruiting rankings. That's undeniable. Why?....... is the playing field upon which recruiting is conducted level across all 130 FBS programs. I don't think it is at all level. Whether impermissible benefits are part of the reason for that is debatable.

Did the talent gap between M and osu widen because tressel and ufm over their HC'ing tenures were just better recruiters? Did ufm succeed at UF because he was just a better recruiter than the HCs of his SEC opponents? Alabama/Saban? Clemson/Sweeney? Georgia/Smart? Of course it's possible but I remain skeptical. There are alternative scenarios and, albeit based on questionable evidence of payments to recruits, it's hard to believe that hasn't contributed in some part to the success of these coaches and the programs they run. I'm not sure that a properly conducted investigation - not anything the NCAA is capable of doing - into the possibility that benefits are being provided to CFB recruits to unfairly advantage their programs at the expense of programs who don't have the means or choose not to do so would reveal such payments are made. ..... and that this activity is wide spread among programs that have the incentive to pay recruits and the means to do so. JMO.

[iam416]

The point to be made in that article is that the author makes an argument that is well supported by a set of facts/data

No, it as absolutely not. The author looks at recruiting outcomes, notices that OSU really improved under UFM and says CHEATING!!!

Here's a FACT-BASED hypothesis. M is an inferior program. Fact. OSU is an elite program. Fact. Thus, I believe that any recruit that chooses M over OSU is doing so because M is getting paid. Fact-based analysis.

He's not accusing osu of making payments to attract recruits.

You didn't read that blog, then. That's exactly his point. He doesn't say it explicitly, but there are a million lines ("Harbaugh just won't do that" type of shit -- well what the fuck do you think THAT is?). Don't play cute. Own the message this is guy is shoveling.

You offered some kids, like Rashan Gary for example, don't want money. That may be true in his case but I'd speculate that is not the case with many more talented/top 100 HS recruits who grew up in circumstances where they went to elementary school hungry and got fed there because Mom either wasn't present or if she was, lacked the means to provide the nurturing kids need...

Then look at the circumstances of the players rather than saying OSU signed him? CHEAT!!!! M signed him? Honorable dude! That's what this is.

Everything in that entire blog and the first comment you cite is outcome driven -- well, OSU signed a great class and M didn't -- there's gotta be a reason -- there's gotta be a nefarious reason. CHEATING! This is exactly what this comment is about:

We should start with a strong presumption that OSU is cheating (systematic financial payments) in the most advanced and sophisticated ways. Why? Because we really do know that Alabama and Clemson are operating this way. (just one article: https://www.fitsnews.com/2019/04/25/...ap-revelation/). It would not be possible for OSU to be at the same recruiting level as Clemson and Bama level if they were doing nothing beyond a few $500 handshakes and free tats.

Or, you know, you could try to figure it out. Maybe it's because UFM is good. But, yeah, there is no merit in college football. There is no accomplishment in college football. It's all $$$. The bell curve is dead. Just a pile of a few cheaters and a bunch of losers. And HARBAUGH!!!! is a loser.

[iam416]

Ask yourself this -- if Chase Young is getting hundreds of thousands of dollars, which me MUST. MUST. I reiterate MUST. Why? Because Ohio State beat out Bama for him. So, there's a STRONG PRESUMPTION Ohio State paid him hundreds of thousands of dollars. That's the fucking argument. To a tee. That IS the argument.

Then why on fucking earth is BORROWING $3000 from some family friend AND paying it back? Why isn't he working his under-the-table booster connections for a pittance of a payment that no one will ever uncover? Why? Why isn't he using some of that $250,000 to pay for that shit?

Ohio State also beat out Alabama (and M) for Joey Bosa. Obviously, they paid the Bosas gads of money.

Wyatt Davis was a top guard from California. Only reason a 5* comes to the midwest from California is $$$$. Unless you're Zach Charbonnet. Then it's just for the love of school. Amirite?

What do you know about Garrett Wilson's family? What do you know about Jeff Okudah's family? What do you know about Chris Olave's family (another California kid)? According to M fans, the strong presumption is that they will all take money and the only way to rebut that presumption is to choose M. That's a real neat fucking trick.

I will say it again. UFM is one of the best recruiters ever. I'll say it again -- look at what he did at Florida. Look at what Zook and Muschamp did before and after him (good -- not elite). Coach Tressel recruited at a good level. He crushed it in Ohio and snagged a few good out of state kids. UFM improved that culminating with the 2017 class (and 2018). HARBAUGH!!!! isn't a great recruiter.

In any event, that discussion isn't fact-based. Or rather, it's as fact-based as my analysis above re the conclusion that any recruit that picks M over OSU must getting paid because WHY would you do that?

The bottom line, of course, is this is all just a way to justify HARBAUGH!!!! There's always an excuse. ALWAYS. Shall we recap:

2015: Sparty woke up OSU and Durkin checked out. Not HARBAUGH!!!'s fault.
2016: The officials conspired to steal the game. BITTERLY DISAPPOINTED. Not HARBAUGH!!!'s fault.
2017: Genius gameplan, M outplays OSU at 21 of 22 positions, but O'Korn. Not HARBAUGH!!!'s fault.
2018: Crossing routes from hell. Just not enough speed. Don Brown was to stubborn. Not HARBAUGH!!!'s fault.
2019: OSU just has more talent. The reason they more talent is they cheat. M would never do that. Not HARBAUGH!!!!'s fault.

I personally love this approach. Keep that guy there as long as you want. Please.