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Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season
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My thoughts in a post that makes Buchanan look downright terse:
- BASIS: I think there's a good case to be made that he was absolutely "cutting edge" at Stanford AND that he was a huge beneficiary of Andrew Luck. Taking the first point, I think his offense at Stanford was a devastating weapon against P12 defenses premised on stopping Chip Kelly. He had the right scheme for the right league and he whipped some people with it. BUT, he never could beat Chip's Oregon teams when it mattered or, for that matter, even keep it close. He was outclassed by Oregon (he never won at Autzen). He also benefitted from USC going from elite to meh in his final 2 seasons at Stanford.
With respect to the Niners, he walked into a stacked defensive team. And that was absolutely how they won. On offense, I give him a lot of credit for moving to Kap and even being a little cutting edge (relative to the NFL) with how he used him and Frank Gore. It's basic stuff these days, but at the time it was giving NFL defenses problems. The offense eventually leveled off/declined and the defensive talent eroded and the team was no longer that good. - RELEVANCE: HARBAUGH!!! is being measured, in part, against his past. If his past is over-romanticized then this assessment is necessarily wrong.
2. ASSERTION: M is not Ohio State.- BASISRELEVANCE
3. ASSERTION: HARBAUGH!!!! is not the QB whisperer.- BASISRELEVANCE
4. ASSERTION: HARBAUGH!!!! is not an elite recruiter.- BASIS: Using the top 100 247 Composite as the arbitrary cut-off for "elite" type players (look, I have to use a cutoff somewhere):
2017-20 Ohio State: 36
2017-20 M: 10
It's possible M could add another for 2020 via either an actual commit or a rise in rankings. But, that's the 4-year snapshot for recruits heading into the 2021 season. Ryan Day, in his first year of recruiting, has 8 top 100 kids signed and that includes a devastating reversal of fortune with Bijan Robinson. EIGHT. First year. And that doesn't include Justin Fields, who was a total Ryan Day "recruit." And I think he's almost certain to do better in 2021 (gets a huge boost from a really strong year in Ohio).
So, that's what the aggregate starts to look like when you are consistently top 3-5 vs consistently top 10. And that's not even delving into positional recruiting that, e.g., leaves a team recklessly short at DT.
The cavalry isn't on the way, at least vis-a-vis Ohio State. - RELEVANCE: He will struggle to consistently beat Ohio State, let alone win a CFP. His ceiling is likely 2nd in the East in most seasons.
5. ASSERTION: HARBAUGH!!!! wrongly abandoned his offense (and did not want to).- BASISRELEVANCE
6. ASSERTION: Gattis is in over his head.- BASISRELEVANCE: 2019 is not going to improve absent some sort of significant readjustment to scheme.
7. ASSERTION: the 2019 Defense is not getting fixed.- BASISRELEVANCE
CONCLUSIONS:Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
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- BASIS: I think there's a good case to be made that he was absolutely "cutting edge" at Stanford AND that he was a huge beneficiary of Andrew Luck. Taking the first point, I think his offense at Stanford was a devastating weapon against P12 defenses premised on stopping Chip Kelly. He had the right scheme for the right league and he whipped some people with it. BUT, he never could beat Chip's Oregon teams when it mattered or, for that matter, even keep it close. He was outclassed by Oregon (he never won at Autzen). He also benefitted from USC going from elite to meh in his final 2 seasons at Stanford.
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MichiganFan are the craziest fans in college football, this is crossing the line. And I have seen a few of these floating around. 0% thank God, I would dissolve myself completely from the program.
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