Michigan Football, the 2020 Abbreviated COVID Season

[iam416]

IMO, the most that happens this season is that it chums the waters for 2020. I'm not saying M won't ever shitcan him, but they're gonna need more than 7-5 in 2019 to do it.

[Hannibal]

It's not just football that overuses these models. Elections, climatology, the stock market, etc. All of them suffer from severe overconfidence in making predictions because people assume that having a PhD in math means that your stuff works. Fancystats and models are a hot trend now.

[iam416]

Wrong thread, ya 17th century curmudgeon!

[Hannibal]

Illinois game time and network has been announced as ABC at noon. Darn. I was hoping that we could go a year without Disney. Alas, there can be no light without the darkness. Maybe spending a few hours with Beth Mowins or Steve Levy will remind Michigan fans to be thankful for what we have on BTN and Fox.

[Tom W]

Illinois game time and network has been announced as ABC at noon. Darn. I was hoping that we could go a year without Disney. Alas, there can be no light without the darkness. Maybe spending a few hours with Beth Mowins or Steve Levy will remind Michigan fans to be thankful for what we have on BTN and Fox.

That is the punishment for being exposed as frauds.

[Hannibal]

Having Beth Mowins do your PxP is cruel and unusual.

[Tom W]

True, but that's what you get for underachievement on a massive scale.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Having Beth Mowins do your PxP is cruel and unusual.

EF-FUCKING-Z

[lineygoblue]

Michigan will go into 'the game' with five (5) losses. That game will determine a .500 or winning record. Ain't no way Ryan Day is going to let his first signature win in a mostly red Michigan Stadium escape him. They're going to beat Michigan, and its going to be yet another humiliating loss.

We have now returned 'the game' to the pre-1969 era. Thank you Lloyd Carr et al ...

[Jeff Buchanan]

One can do a deep dive into M's running game and learn something. Like I've said, I dislike posts that make a broad statement about Michigan football without details supporting it. e.g., Patterson locks on to his receivers and only sees 1/2 the field ...... a deep dive into that one suggests his head looking in one place might have more to do with making his post snap reads than with locking on to a receiver.

This article addresses that meme as well as another meme, the run game sucks.

The numbers certainly suggest that M's run game is not great, Bob. But in this article, there's a couple of underlying reasons for those shitty numbers. Not an excuse but a plausible explanation.

When Patterson is in at QB opposing DCs have determined he's not going to be a run threat and adjust their defenses accordingly. So far, they've been right - Patterson has not kept the ball off any inside zone read plays. The net effect is an unblocked defender can commit inside to the POA who might otherwise be assigned the role of defending the edge for the QB keeper. i.e., the read option does not eliminate a defender from the box when the defense believes the QB won't keep. He did keep the ball on two TDs he scored v. Rutgers but those weren't inside zone reads.

In both games where either McCaffrey (Wisconsin) or Milton (Rutgers) went in, defenses had to adjust to an increased potential for those two QBs to keep the ball. DCs reacted differently to the QB run threat and the article explains how they did react. But in this film analysis you can see how the threat of the read when M is actually running a read option or inside zone read occupies a defender such that he can be eliminated as one. This gives M a run blocker advantage of +1. The results in the degree of run-play success are obvious.

I'm not sure what is going to happen in the Iowa game with Patterson. It will be revealing on M's first possession if we see M axing the read option in favor of power and PA out of formations featuring 3 wides and a flexed TE. Suggesting that this might be the case, McKeon is out. I posted a quote yesterday about this and how it affected M's offense v. Rutgers: They ran more 11 personnel than 12. Translation: 11 Personnel = 1 RB, 1 TE and 3 WRs. 12 Personnel = 1 RB, 2 TEs and 2 WRs.



I'd say the 11 Personnel packages are more up Gattis' alley and the 12 more up Harbaugh's. 3 WRs and a flex TE is a lot more spready when it comes to the run game and probably advantages Patterson, with or without a read option, in his passing game. That could explain why v. Rutgers the passing game went well while the run game, without the read option, didn't.

I'm also not sure if Patterson has trouble making reads or that his injury status is such that the coaches don't want him keeping it and it's not an option. The meme is that Patterson can't make the reads. After trying to understand the ZR/RPO Gattis offense as we've seen it unfold in the first 4 games, it's not that hard to make the pre-snap reads that identify who the conflict defender is and where the QB needs to look post-snap and through the mesh to make the keep or give decision. I suspect he can. So, ????

https://mgoblog.com/content/neck-sha...reat#read-more

[hack]

One can also do a deep dive and not learn anything.



Like I've said, I dislike posts that make a broad statement about Michigan football without details supporting it. e.g., Patterson locks on to his receivers and only sees 1/2 the field ...... a deep dive into that one suggests his head looking in one place might have more to do with making his post snap reads than with locking on to a receiver.

It doesn't require a deep dive to see that having the post-snap reads all being in one place are likely a response to the original problem I mentioned. The sources you respect and post here think that's what's happening.

If you think that there's nothing supporting the idea that Patterson is slow to make reads downfield and sometimes fails entirely, then I would recommend reading the sources you already read. It's been a consistent point about Patterson's ceiling that's come up multiple times in this year's coverage, including the preview stuff.

[Jeff Buchanan]

.......... It doesn't require a deep dive to see that having the post-snap reads all being in one place are likely a response to the original problem I mentioned. The sources you respect and post here think that's what's happening.

I don't have a problem with this view as long as it is acknowledged there are other views. The view that Patterson is looking at his reads and not locking on to receivers was offered by Space Cyote as an alternate viewpoint. I do have a problem with accepting single sources such as mgo as gospel. When I refer to doing a "deep dive" it means digging for and then listening to alternate views, looking at the facts that support each one of them then deciding which view is best supported. It's not always clear but at least the responsible critic is going to search for and listen to alternative interpretations.

The same sort of approach applies to the meme, the run game sucks (generally implying coaching sucks). A deep dive here would offer causation. Is it because the coaching in the run game is failing .... or any number of other fatuous accusations aimed at the coaching staff? Is it because there are factors like the one's provided in this week's Neck Sharpies? Both positions could be true but, I'd tend to go with the run game results aren't great when Patterson is playing the QB position because defenses don't recognize Patterson as a run threat. Because of that M can't gain a blocker advantage by eliminating the conflict defender from the box with the read option.

If you think that there's nothing supporting the idea that Patterson is slow to make reads downfield and sometimes fails entirely, then I would recommend reading the sources you already read. It's been a consistent point about Patterson's ceiling that's come up multiple times in this year's coverage, including the preview stuff.

[hack]

Certainly when other people say the same things I do it bothers you less, so if you don't want it to be personal then don't make it so. Maybe consider the ignore function. I'd just like to share my thoughts about the team on a sports forum meant for that purpose. Am not here to be graded.

[lineygoblue]

Point of order: .. Jeff is a mod. He can't "ignore". This I know. I now utilize that function.

Carry on.

[WM Wolverine]

I'm grading hack's recent work here a B-, hopefully we see some improvement or we'll have to recruit someone from mgoblog to replace him.