Rutgers @ Michigan, Saturday, September 28th, Noon EDT, BTN/Fox Video

[Jeff Buchanan]

Even though it's taken a tomatoe can to reverse some really troubling trends, props to the coaches.

[lineygoblue]

Michigan is doing what they should be doing. They're ringing up an overmatched opponent, just like Wisconsin did to us last week.

Next week, its back to big boy ball. Iowa will bring in a disciplined, well coached and fundamentally sound team, that will be well prepared to play this game. Michigan will not 'cute' their way to a win, if they win at all. They'll have to out-play Iowa in every phase of the game to get the W.

I'm hoping that the Iowa game becomes the game where Michigan puts its foot down, and decides to be the team they are supposed to be. That's the Michigan addict in me talking, and I have no reason to believe that will happen. But, it is Homecoming, and Michigan historically plays well in its homecoming. So, my hope will remain.

Good job by the boys today. I'd say Joe Milton served notice that he will be a factor for the starting job next year. I don't care who gets the starting nod. I just want whomever gets the job to be the best QB on the roster. Dylan or Joe, .. I'm fine with either.

Charbonnet is being held out. Still must be dinged up. I hope he's available next week, because he'll be needed.

And finally, welcome back DPJ. We missed you.

[JRB]

Milton's arm is better than just about anybody's. If Michigan can get him to put the ball where it's supposed to be most of the time, they might really have something there.

Rutgers is horrible. That's my main takeaway from this one, though we hardly needed this game to prove that hypothesis. Michigan had to find some confidence, and they'll come out with as much positive energy as we could have expected.

[iam416]

UMass is, by far, the worst team in FBS. I mean, terrible. The only game they were remotely in was against Rutgers.

But, you need this game after last week. You really do. So, perfect timing and good result.

[edindetroit]

Michigan - Hold my beer.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Less concerned about the opponent's weaknesses in this game. More looking at the things I listed pre-game and I think I addressed those at the end of the first half. Coaches coached and players executed. One cannot over-state the value of this win in the confidence department.

Some things I did see that seem to be reoccurring, opponent independent issues:

The defense remains vulnerable inside to the run.

Brown played a good deal of cover-2 zone in this game. Ash called a couple of good plays to exploit that. I don't think the Rutger's deep threat warranted that approach so, maybe just practicing it. A nit at best.

That Brown is playing more zone (most of it after offense had scored 24) I think reflects the reality of the DT limitations. These will continue. It could also be reflective of Brown adapting to the ass kickings he got from osu and UF in 2018 and the proliferation of spread teams in the BT and nationally. Spread teams can burn an aggressive D that can't be disruptive in the backfield with an overpowering nose. The downside of what Brown is doing is that power teams like Wisconsin, MSU and Iowa are going to have success and spread teams like osu that have a credible inside run game are also problematic. This is a tough tightrope act for Brown to pull-off ..... or any DC in the BT. We're going to see how well he does this. I'm reasonably confident in him.

Most of the pressure came from the LBs and DEs/3-Techs. That's fine but vacating the LB spots invites the short passing game; you risk an edge collapse when your DE's or 3-Techs sell out. Better OLs are going to limit pressures allowing QB to feast in the short passing game over the middle on those vacated LB areas and RBs/Receiver's running screens to get the edge.

My take is that because there's no push from the interior DL by an over-powering NT, we're seeing two DTs, not three and the outside DL being covered by a DE, a 3-Tech and in certain situations a LB and/or S stepping up to the LoS. While this looks like a 3-3-5 or a 4-3-4 I don't think it is. Pretty sure this represents a modern use of a 2-4-5 scheme with the LBs and the FS looking into the back field for their keys to fill or drop into pass coverage. Wisconsin screwed with these keys to great effect. I don't Rutgers tried so, the D looked pretty adept with this scheme even though it could fall apart against a better opponent.

TBH, I don't think I saw but one reoccurring issue with the offense but it's a big one. The pass intensive approach Gattis successfully took with Patterson executing it well took did not have the intended effect on the run game. Ss continued to fill effectively. I think part of this is that M is predictable with their IZ/OZ run play formations. Rutger's LBs/Ss seemed to be ready to limit both the inside and outside runs, regardless of what they were (sweeps v. power - OT or pin and pull, v. dives, etc). This suggests poorly thought out run schemes or timing issues in the back-filed (Space Cyote spoke of this after Wisconsin) that messes with the blocking schemes for the OL. I'll give Gattis a D on this part of the M offense v. Rutgers. It needs to get fixed for Iowa and PSU.

[Hannibal]

Run game was poop. But that's what happens when your only guy with legitimate talent gets five carries and you aren't even trying to keep defenses honest with an option game. It sure would be nice to have Evans this year. Outside of Charbonnet, the RBs suck. Haskins should be playing for Northwestern, Turner is pretty meh, and Wilson was a walk-on for a reason. Big time regression on the O line this year too.

Patterson did things that we have seen him do against cream puffs before. Meh. No big deal. His accuracy is pretty overrated. He also still takes way too long to find receivers. He's going to get creamed again when he faces another decent pass rush.

Defense still can't defend those crossing routes. We should be able to beat Maryland and Indiana but that's about it.

[Cody_Russell]

[lineygoblue]

Michigan didn't do anything spectacular today, or anything that would indicate that they are breaking out of whatever funk they are in.

If this were a tennis game, they held serve. That's basically it. They did what they were supposed to do. They probably should have done something similar to MTSU.

Hanni noted that Patterson is still hanging on to the ball too long, and that's true. He's going to get smashed by defenses that pursue well. Iowa is one of those teams. He's got to get rid of the ball, or take off and run much sooner than he has been, or he's going to get hurt.

For some reason, Gattis seems to believe that running between the tackles is a strong point for our OL, because he did it again several times today. And, as before, it was mostly stuffed. And it will be stuffed every time they try it from now to the end of the season. Opposing defenses are shutting off that part of the option. Patterson is going to have to pull the ball out more, if they ever intend to open up the middle. And forcing the run inside is going to get the RB's hurt as well.

Patterson's pass early on to DPJ was nice. He dropped that one right in the bucket and it was well executed by both. If there was one real bright spot today it was the confirmation that our WR's are not part of the problem on the team. Neither are the TE's. They're catching passes. Seems like Harbaugh and Gattis would take a hint from that, but Air Coryell they are not.

Iowa will be Wisconsin 2.0. They'll be prepared, well coached and they'll have a game plan to exploit Michigan's defensive weaknesses. Unless Michigan puts its foot down and starts playing tougher, the Hawkeyes will put a whupping on them.

Still looks like a ceiling of 7-5 to me.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It's early in the evening yet. Post game hot takes are out there. They are uniformly bad. Outside our forum, have not seen any trustworthy posters posting. Mostly rabble making mostly uninformed and fatuous comments. So, here goes ..... heh!

Either I am completely wrong in my assessment of Don Brown's defense or I'm right and the defense today demonstrated both the innate strengths and weaknesses of the way he is deploying the DL, LBs (the front 7) and how the DBs are being used behind it. I watched USC and Washington. Washington is fairly spread, run to pass oriented. USC is a power spread. USC used the same approach on defense v. Washington that I think Brown is using. Sample of one but the closer you pay attention to CFB defenses, the more they look a lot like what Brown is doing. Trend across CFB? I think it is.

Sure, Rutgers, but, you can see a defense that it's players are getting how it's supposed to work. I've seen a lot of comments criticizing M's ability to cover crossing routes today. What? First, the short quick pass is in Sitkowski's wheelhouse and he is throwing those passes to two NFL caliber Rutgers players in RB Pacheco and Slotty guy Blacksheer. Combined, these guys had 10 receptions for 76 yards, no TDs. That second stat - no TDs - is important. This was the Rutger's offense and that offense couldn't score.

What this means is that the 2019 version of the Brown defense is adapting to what spread teams do best, defending it between the 20s and shutting it down in the red zone. I'll take it. How it does against a team that shows up with a credible power/inside running game is another matter but the defense is also deployed to defend it between the 20s by bending and shutting it down in the red zone. It's a bend don't break, no big chunk plays design that can work when it is run correctly. It was not run correctly v. Wisconsin. It was v. Rutger's ..... I know, Rutgers but stay with me here.

Patterson is again taking hits for a lack of accuracy, slow release and bailing too quickly. What I saw is Gattis designing plays and calling them for things Patterson does best. He's skittish in the pocket but he's very good rolling out and throwing accurately on the move. What does Gattis do? He rolls Patterson out. What does Patterson do? He goes 17/23/276/1 - and we asked for him to throw deep, he did so on the INT; Collins comes down with that 50/50 ball 90% of the time. Keep doing that and do it with confidence. Patterson also threw plenty of balls horizontally and the receivers made some great catches but Patterson was generally very accurate on those throws.

Lots of complaining that Patterson locks on to his receivers, mostly Bell and still doesn't see open receivers/half of the field. First, no one that I'm reading has ever played QB, does not know what the play is supposed to look like and therefore cannot judge it. Is Patterson staring down a receiver because his head doesn't move when he has the ball in his hand? It might but, it's just as likely he already made a pre-snap read dictating who is most likely to be open and he's reading a S or a LB to determine if the receiver he expected to be open based on the pre-snap read is actually going to be open. My take is Patterson is fine, he's getting well coached and the arm-chair QBs can go fuck themselves.

Bottom line for me is that thinking we know what's going on in Patterson's or Gattis' head, what is going on in Brown's head and the heads of his players is like what our wagering on games in DSL's contest demonstrates. We don't know shit so maybe we should stop being as pompously critical as all fans tend to be. I'm going to rub this in everyone's face if M goes out and beats Iowa next Saturday. If they get beat, you can rub it in mine.

[iam416]

I gotta give you a lot of credit, Buchanan. Very few fans could look at a game against Rutgers with so much intent, epsecially after a disheartening outcome the week prior.

[drok]

Didn't watch live and am watching now this morning. Some encouraging progress, but still some concerning pieces. I don't know if it is just playing Rutgers, but this team still seems to take a long time to get to the line and run a play. Hard to tell by the broadcast sometimes, but the scheme still doesn't seem able to spring easy yards. No easy pitch and catch. Everything still feels difficult. It feels like the talent is what separated the teams not the playcalling, and this offense still struggles to move with ease. I did like having Gattis on the field, even symbolically. He's an animated guy and his energy is likely infectious. Short yardage seems a struggle out of this offense. That's going to bite them.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I gotta give you a lot of credit, Buchanan. Very few fans could look at a game against Rutgers with so much intent, epsecially after a disheartening outcome the week prior.

It was like a practice that we get to watch. I have lots of a time and I spend an inordinate amount of it reading about football, watching videos of coaching clinics, sifting through the various web sites that do video analysis (there are some good ones) and running Michigan game video myself slow-motion trying to understand what's happening on individual plays. t's a hobby.

This activity has gotten me to question Brian's conclusions. His player grading is OK but even that I've begun to look at skeptically. He used to be my only source of game analysis. Not anymore. There are others out there doing it better.

Anyway, after Wisconsin, addicts like me are looking for something positive. There is WAAAAY too much latching on to the long list of overly critical mostly fatuous memes that have been associated with M's 2019 offense, Shea Patterson and Don Brown and his players. Here's just one example ........ "Shea locks on to his receiver and holds on to the ball too long ....... doesn't throw in rhythm."

Here's a link to his draft profile written in August. https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/shea-patterson None of these three QB evaluators for NFL teams mentions this as a flaw of Patterson's. He has cons but this is not one of them. His pros are exactly what I'm seeing and in this particular game, one of things I picked up on was Gattis scheming around what Patterson does best - throwing on the move. The Wisconsin game was a spotlight on what he doesn't do well - stay in the pocket and make throws on a stable frame. The Rutgers game demonstrated what he can do when the pass rush is mitigated - mostly in this case because Rutgers doesn't have one. So, we can conclude that if the alleged All BT OL can mitigate the pass-rush of better teams, Patterson is going to beat you.

Something else fans generally can't see on video replay from TV camera angles/production is the routes receivers are running. If there is a mistake made there, it affects the effectiveness of the passing game. That may or may not be on Patterson but the typical and probably wrong bitch from fans is that Patterson is inaccurate. When things come together, he's very accurate probably around 80% of the time.

So, yeah I watch the games intently and critically and go over video the same way. One of my purposes is to be able to confidently dismiss a lot of post game shit posts.

[hack]

Didn't watch live and am watching now this morning. Some encouraging progress, but still some concerning pieces. I don't know if it is just playing Rutgers, but this team still seems to take a long time to get to the line and run a play. Hard to tell by the broadcast sometimes, but the scheme still doesn't seem able to spring easy yards. No easy pitch and catch. Everything still feels difficult. It feels like the talent is what separated the teams not the playcalling, and this offense still struggles to move with ease. I did like having Gattis on the field, even symbolically. He's an animated guy and his energy is likely infectious. Short yardage seems a struggle out of this offense. That's going to bite them.

Great take, esp "It feels like the talent is what separated the teams not the playcalling". Esp. on defense today. Rutgers knew how to attack Don Brown.

Patterson is a part of it on offense. He just isn't quick with his reads and struggles to hit guys in stride. Ronnie Bell is a serious weapon with a QB that hits him in stride. I love his feet. I recall Rudock being a beat slow in September but snapping it into focus by late October. Maybe Patterson isn't operating in an offense as coherent, but still.

I'm very happy that they gave Charbonnet a few carries and then gave him the rest of the day off.

[hack]

Also feeling like McGrone and Hill are going to be a needed back-seven upgrade of speed and athleticism to make up for Don Brown and the DTs. I really mean it here -- I'd feel a lot better about Don Brown if we had Brady Hoke coaching and recruiting defensive linemen.