Rutgers @ Michigan, Saturday, September 28th, Noon EDT, BTN/Fox Video

[Jeff Buchanan]

Facts:

• McCaffrey is likely out due to concussion protocol. Milton isn't ready. Sessa? McNamara?
• Patterson has unequivocally demonstrated he is incapable of running a spread, ZR/RPO offense with the degree of efficiency required at the college level. But, he will probably start.
• Gattis and his staff have demonstrated he can't coach. If he could, the offense would not look as confused and chaotic as it has looked.
• Warinner has to find a way to get the OL to properly pick up stunts and blitzes. 4 seasons in and this unit continues to fail to do this consistently causing injury to 3 QBs going back to Speight..
• Brown has to find a way to make a scheme work against the run with the player skill set he has. That he seems to still be tinkering is coaching malfeasance.

Obstacles to overcome:

• Football at this level is a game of mental toughness and perseverance. This team seems to lack both. There are no vocal leaders. Might try a players only meeting.
• There is the appearance that the offense is too complex and can't be efficiently executed no matter who the QB is. Simplify and expand the playbook after the team gets good at a few plays.
• Settle on a defensive scheme that can stop the run.

[iam416]

Rutgers is good for what ails ya.

[Cody_Russell]

[Hannibal]

Michigan 27
Rutgers 20

Rutgers sucks but so do we. This is a classic "Moveable object meets the resistable force" type of matchup.

We'll be favored. Take the points. Another very easy bet to make. The lines against Army and Wisky were both absolutely insane. Betters for some reason know nothing about our team.

[UMStan White]

Michigan v Rutgers! Who gives a shit!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Rutgers is good for what ails ya.

It's going to take a monumental turn-around to fix what "ails" team 140. Players may have checked out and it's not that these kids are a bunch of entitled pussies. I have no doubt they have worked hard. They are being poorly coached in what appears to be two poorly conceived schemes - on both sides of the ball - and who can blame them.

Rutgers may help but I'm skeptical. The problems run deep and start right at the top.

On the bright side, I breezed through an article this morning that listed five teams that looked like shit in thier first 3 games and went on to NCs or CFP playoff slots. Alabama, Clemson and osu were among them. Lost the link and, TBH, I'm not terribly interested in being bright and sunny right now when involves blowing rainbows out my ass.

Michigan football is in trouble.

[iam416]

[Hannibal]

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, Rutgers is a win ........

It's early in the week and before I do some study. I'm going to be in Seattle next week starting Thursday and won't be watching the Rutgers game but let's take a look at that.

This thing about,"we had a good week in practice" bothers me. It's Hoke speak after a loss and for what it's worth in the rear view mirror, he was fucking clueless. So was his OC, Al Borges. The guy that put Dennard under center, horribly wasted his skills and put an offense on the field that was a jumbled mess. Are there parallels with Harbaugh/Gattis? I think so.

I also think the players may very well have gone sour on the coaching staff. Kids that have played successfully in HS may not be great candidates for engineering degrees at M but they aren't football stupid. When the plan as it unfolds on game day, maybe even before in-game disasters are clear, is shit on a stick, they know it. I don't think any of the receiver group are happy and it's the most talented group M has had probably ever. I don't know what's up with the RBs and the projected All BT OL has turned out to be not remotely close to earning that award.

Patterson is mentally rocked. I also don't think he has any organic leadership skills. He sounds like a mouse in interviews. More importantly he's not delivering. It could matter that the scheme and plays within the scheme are bad to start with and the quote I posed up thread from TTB suggests that. OTH, he could just be not good to start with. He doesn't see the whole field well and misses open receivers on his downfield reads, he's slow releasing the ball, doesn't see blitzes and has a tendency to take big hits. All of this may be exacerbated by shitty OL play. That can invoke the terror of getting crushed by angry 290 pound men traveling at the speed of light towards you and seems to affect Patterson in a negative way regarding how he thinks and plays. And that's not coming from my untrained QB eye. Take a look at these three NFL QB scouting reports. This is why he didn't go pro after the 2018 season. https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/shea-patterson

There's a chance, albeit small, and for the reasons above, Rutgers could win on Saturday. Just saying. A shit ton of formidable obstacles exist for this team to work there way through.

[paul daugherity]

[Tom W]

Sorry, but that's just silly and the odds of this happening are so remote that it would pretty much need to be an inside job. But, well, it jut might be.

[lineygoblue]

They should beat Rutgers, but I'm more concerned about an embarrassing homecoming loss to the Hawkeyes the week after. Iowa will bring a stout defense as usual, and even though Ferentz has been there since ancient times, he will have his team prepared. I don't think I've ever seen Iowa play a poorly coached game against us. They're always tough, and even when we've managed to beat them, its been difficult.

[hack]

Did they ever have a bad week in practice?

[AlabamAlum]

I think you guys have a decent chance to beat every team left on your sched except Ohio State. Not sure 10-2, with a big loss to Wisconsin and another loss to the Bucknuts, with a 3rd place finish in the BigTen-East will sit with fans.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think you guys have a decent chance to beat every team left on your sched except Ohio State. Not sure 10-2, with a big loss to Wisconsin and another loss to the Bucknuts, with a 3rd place finish in the BigTen-East will sit with fans.

It won't and you'd be wrong about "a decent chance to beat every team left on your sched except Ohio State."

I took Jeff Sagrin's Week 4 Ratings (there are others but this one is the easiest to make game predictions) and ran the calculations on the rest of M's schedule. Here they are, Red = loss (a calculated spread of less than 1 = a loss):

Rutgers, M is favored by 30.8
Iowa, M is favored by 0.84
@ Illinois, M is favored by 13.5
@ PSU, PSU is favored by 13.95
ND, ND is favored by 4.5
@ Maryland, Maryland is favored by 5.16
MSU, MSU is favored by 0.34
@ IU, M is favored by 6.51
osu, osu is favored by 17.47

Things change weekly with Sagain and all the ranking systems but as of right now, M will lose 6 more games and finish the 2019 season 5-7. I think that is clearly the floor and I did my own thing with a spread of < 1.00. Those would probably be considered toss - up so, I'll give you "chance" for M to win those two (MSU and Iowa) and go 7-5. I also happen to think that is probably a realistic record. So, you are waaaaaay off with that crazy ass prediction if Sagrin is any where near correct.

While it's true that fancy stats like this are so objective that they defy the "shit happens," and "you will win/lose a game on a refs call," and "randomness laws.

Read it and weep.