Michigan @ Wisconsin, Saturday, 9/21/19, Noon(EDT), Fox Sports

[hack]

Yes. I see why in some ways we hired a guy and didn't get when we were promised re tactics. Ten years ago his offensive approach was effective, today it's far less so. But the organizational/leadership stuff is a mystery. He was known for being highly organized and having many motivational tricks. That stuff shouldn't go away because the Xs and Os have evolved. I don't think the answer is that he's mailing it in. But those abilities appear to be lost now, and there's no easy answer as to why without base speculation. Which may be necessary. Sudden loss of durable skills may well indeed fit with sudden ability to control his temper on the sideline in a way he never has before.

[hack]

I think it's entirely reasonable to reexamine the past and conclude that it was a right time/right place thing for his scheme, in particular. But no coach who exhibits such an extreme inattention to detail as he shows now is going to be successful for long, and it wasn't always the case. He used to be much more meticulous. If it can be shown that he actually wasn't much more meticulous in preparation, I'm all for it. That would provide an easy answer to a question that currently doesn't have an easy answer, and make moving on much easier.

[iam416]

Yeah, I can't really get into his attention to detail stuff because I just don't know or really have any basis to know. And, again, I realize I'm in the minority when it comes to "revisionist" views on his pre-M days. Hannibal will surely chastize and berate my position and that's fine.

[froot loops]

No matter what coach gets hired at Michigan he has to deal with the fact the fanbase expects a return to the glory years but the reality is winning a Big Ten title these days is much, much harder. The setup is harder and the teams are better. When Bo was winning Big Ten titles, Wisconsin was trash, MSU was wandering in the wilderness for a long time and Penn State was independent. OSU is probably better as a program than it was during the 10 year war. Its hard, tradition is fine but it only gets you so far.

[hack]

No argument here. But Michigan still has some unique stuff to sell to recruits that should get it part but not all of the way. The stadium, the academics, the exposure, the massive alumni network, etc. etc. There are some seductive superlatives. Many recruits aren't going to care about that, but enough do. The program we see and are describing would otherwise have no business pulling in players like Gary or Julius Peppers. Especially now, given a questionable inability to coach them up.

[iam416]

No matter what coach gets hired at Michigan he has to deal with the fact the fanbase expects a return to the glory years but the reality is winning a Big Ten title these days is much, much harder. The setup is harder and the teams are better. When Bo was winning Big Ten titles, Wisconsin was trash, MSU was wandering in the wilderness for a long time and Penn State was independent. OSU is probably better as a program than it was during the 10 year war. Its hard, tradition is fine but it only gets you so far.

The current format is way harder. UFM would have been 7 for 7 in B10 titles under the old system (including "co-champs"). Plus, the East is a fucking grinder. And Ohio State is at its all-time high water mark (or was -- we'll see how Day does). They have won 90 of their last 99.

Woody had some great stretches and Tressel was great, but UFM is a different animal.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm in total agreement with the link between Harbaugh's less than competitive recruiting and his less than competitive teams he's putting on the field. There is no arguing with the facts form the composite rankings and the vast difference between M's recruiting and that of osu's.

Consignment to 2nd place in the BT until such time that recruiting trends are addressed is a foregone conclusion. The rest is pure speculation if not somewhat interesting speculation.

[Hannibal]

I know I'm in the distinct minority, but I think current HARBAUGH!!!! demands a re-examination of old HARBAUGH!!!! Rather than just assume he's somehow forgotten how to coach, I want to look and see if the baseline was accurate.

I think there's a good case to be made that he was absolutely "cutting edge" at Stanford AND that he was a huge beneficiary of Andrew Luck. Taking the first point, I think his offense at Stanford was a devastating weapon against P12 defenses premised on stopping Chip Kelly. He had the right scheme for the right league and he whipped some people with it. BUT, he never could beat Chip's Oregon teams when it mattered or, for that matter, even keep it close. He was outclassed by Oregon. Taking the second point, the assumption was always that HARBAUGH!!!! made Luck, but with years of additional data I think the case could be made that Luck made HARBAUGH!!!! I'm not saying one argument is dispositive -- it's likely a hybrid. But, if the former were entirely true then there's no real explanation for M's failures at QB. None. So, I'm starting to lean more toward something like a 30/70 explanation (Harbaugh did some good things with Luck, but mostly Luck was just awesome).

With respect to the Niners, he walked into a stacked defensive team. And that was absolutely how they won. On offense, I give him a lot of credit for moving to Kap and even being a little cutting edge (relative to the NFL) with how he used him and Frank Gore. It's basic stuff these days, but at the time it was giving NFL defenses problems. The offense eventually leveled off/declined and the defensive talent eroded and the team was no longer that good.

So, in the present I think a couple things. First, there's no real cutting edge way to game the system in the B10 and rise to the top of the B10 East. Not with Ohio State sitting there. Ohio State isn't going to turn into some knucklehead program and they're going to have gads of talent. To beat Ohio State you have to recruit on par with them and bring quality schemes. I think HARBAUGH!!!!'s biggest problem is the former. I thought his offense was fine -- especially if he could develop a good QB (heh). I think his defense is generally fine. But, neither scheme is good enough to overcome the talent disadvantage he brings upon himself as a merely good recruiter.

IMO, he's stuck 100% behind Ohio State until the recruiting becomes more even. He may pull off an upset here or there, but on the whole the program will be 2nd best in the East. That's his ceiling as things currently sit. And I think that's consistent with is stint at Stanford and SF.

I dunno man. That's a lot of "ifs" and "buts". It's a very anti Occam's Razor explanation of his career. He also turned UC San Diego into a dominant team in a very short time, for what it's worth. When Harbaugh built his offense at Stanford, USC was the dominant power there and they were manballing the shit out of people. Toby Gearhart was a Heisman candidate before most of us heard of Andrew Luck. San Francisco went 8 years without a winning season before Harbaugh got there. He took a 6-10 team and went 13-3 with them. He went to a Super Bowl and three NFC championship games. There's no way to write off that success. It's fantastic. Harbaugh's success pre-Michigan has fewer caveats than Urban Meyer's career pre-Florida. I'm sorry, but I can't accept the "Harbaugh was never great" theory. He was legitimately elite. I guess that we will just disagree on this one forever.

[hack]

I'm OK with some of that but not all of it. Easy to see that in the four years he was at SF, college football truly changed for good with the spread, and in a way that has taken a good chunk of his identity as a coach away from him, and made it difficult for him to adjust. And I also have an easier time accepting the zoloft theory. Or that he just burned out. Some guys can't keep it up at that level of intensity for that long.

[froot loops]

Its important to remember when you are hiring a HC, you are hiring his staff. How much of that staff when he was in Stanford and San Francisco is with him now? David Shaw is having a down year this year but he has had a lot of success at Stanford. Greg Roman is doing a great job for Harbaugh's brother. His offensive staff seems to be reshuffling all the time.

[Tom W]

No matter what coach gets hired at Michigan he has to deal with the fact the fanbase expects a return to the glory years but the reality is winning a Big Ten title these days is much, much harder. The setup is harder and the teams are better. When Bo was winning Big Ten titles, Wisconsin was trash, MSU was wandering in the wilderness for a long time and Penn State was independent. OSU is probably better as a program than it was during the 10 year war. Its hard, tradition is fine but it only gets you so far.

That's a Valenti-ism that's not quite accurate.

Only the most ridiculous members, and those numbers are dwindling, have those expectations. We're just looking for this program to be in the mix come November with a competitive shot in the Game. Things don't always fall your way, but sticking around usually pays off. As much it was a stack of bullshit in Columbus in 2016, you could at least think that things would even out sooner rather than later. This makes the debacle in 2018, and the subsequent wandering into the minefield in Madison so much more alarming.

15 years since the last title- a lot of bad karma has built up. and it doesn't look to be getting better.

[froot loops]

You might be right Tom W, sometimes the most vocal members makes it seem like there are more than there actually is. I'd also say that if that is the case, the expectations of this team shouldn't have been so high as you sent a lot of high quality players to the NFL. You had the most drafted in a 3 year span since the glory years of the 70s and 90s. Under normal circumstances that would indicate a transition year. That is unless you are recruiting at the level of OSU.

What you saw Saturday was the indication that it probably is a transition year.

[Hannibal]

I don't know what the average fans' expectations are, because program performance has been so far below everyone's expectations that we haven't had a legitimate conversation yet about where are steady state truly is or should be. B1G championships every year are unreasonable. B1G championships two or three times a decade is not, if you ask me. Three our four wins a decade over OSU is reasonable.

[Hannibal]

Superfan rants take some of the pain away from the losses.

[Tom W]

Could probably have done without one of his descriptors, but SuperFan pretty much nails it.