Michigan @ Wisconsin, Saturday, 9/21/19, Noon(EDT), Fox Sports

[iam416]

HARBAUGH!!!! 31, Chryst 24

[Jeff Buchanan]

Dunno ......

I've spent most of the last two weeks reading the various takes on the Army game and what it means. I've spent a good deal of time watching video of the that game and some decent analysis that goes along with it.

So, on the bright side, Niffla, here's some things to think about:

• Fumbles/the kinds of turnovers M had are random occurrences that statistically trend toward a mean. There are causes: missed blitz pick-up caused two Patterson fumbles; some sketchy play calling caused 2 turn-overs on downs the second one costly as a TD was available to end the game if Patterson had the a green-light to throw. RVS was responsible for a forced fumbled. Eliminate these in the Army game and it's complexion is much different. Eliminate the called back Metellus TD on the Army pitch/fumble/scoop and score (Refs -4), the game is WAY, WAY different. So, a lot of randomness. I don't think we'll see this combo of randomness associated with turnover and poor play calling repeated @ Wisconsin.
• Harbaugh may want to take back what he said about the keep reads not being there for Shea but he was not far off. M ran 66 plays. 26 of them by one analysis had zone reads or were RPOs. The rest of them were IZ/OZ (down-G, pin and pull, belly and dives) or PAs out of the gun. There was 1 power play from under C, a goal line TD. I personally think at some point, maybe the start of 3rd, the pass-option on the RPO was not in resulting in this huge number of ZR/RPOs that were run plays all the way and Army knew it.
• Looking only at the plays that had a ZR or RPO on, Shea's success rate on those plays (a gain of 3+ yards) was 6/11 in the first half and 4/15 in the 2nd. Of the 16 ZR/RPO plays that were unsuccessful 8 of them were an either/or read, IOW pass/give/keep would have been the correct read. On those 8 plays there were blocking errors that limited the play's success. 4 of them got RPS'ed by an Army blitz and 4 of them were the wrong read. Boiling that down, Patterson made the wrong read on 4/26 plays where the ZR/RPO was the play call. 85% of the time, he made the right read. There were 2 glaringly obvious keepers that he missed. Those got over-played, IMO, when the blame game started.
• M's D did a great job of limiting Jonathan Taylor in 2018. I'm reasonably certain he will run the same kind of defense against Wisconsin in Madison that he ran against them in 2018. If he does and it even has just some of the success it had in 2018, forcing the Badgers into third and long, Chryst will have to have Coan throw way more than he wants him to. Get pressure on the young lad against an inexperienced right side of the OL and there will be a turnover or two. I posted a comment on Brown's 4-2-5 defense a few posts up.

I still think, contrary to talent's pick, that this is a hard sell for M to win. It'll be close but M has a chance and two weeks ago I thought they'd be toast.

[lineygoblue]

Does anyone really believe UM is going to go into Madison and win tomorrow? Serious question. Somebody inject some confidence into me.

And what does it mean if Michigan gets blasted out tomorrow? Or does it even matter whether it's an ass kicking or a semi-close loss?

But seems to me if UM gets dominated tomorrow that the seat is going to get extremely hot for Harbaugh. And I don't mean necessarily that it's going to be hot in terms of him being in danger of losing his job...I just mean from the fan base. Am I crazy or is it gonna get ugly? Also the national media, too.

I think its going to be a dominating Wisconsin win.

Michigan hasn't shown that they can do anything consistently on offense against inferior competition. Wisconsin is not inferior. At worst, Wisconsin is equal.

Defensively, Michigan may be quick, but they let MTSU and Army get to their bodies, and they moved them wherever they wanted. They can't play off a block to save their lives.

Patterson's kryptonite is to pressure him. He's horrible under pressure. His fly was unzipped last year against Indiana, and the next week he was castrated. We're seeing a continuation of the last three games of last season.

With Charbonnet out, and Tru Wilson questionable, they have no running game. Wisconsin can almost ignore the run threat.

I don't know how Michigan wins this. I really don't. Maybe if Wisconsin comes in cocky and overconfident? I doubt Chryst will let that happen, because he's a doggone good football coach.

I doubt we'll see Wisconsin intentionally run up the score, but I expect to see a sound beating in the range of 13-17 points, and it won't be that close.

[Niffla]

Thanks for the input fellas. I'm going to start drinking early in an effort to numb myself before kickoff. Will still probably be crying my way into a 12 pack by the 2nd half anyway.

Ugh

[hack]

Wisconsin has a bunch of kids on its OL, a new QB, and hasn't played anybody yet. There's reason to be optimistic. I personally am not optimistic, but there are reasons.

[Tom W]

I'm kinda with Hack here. Outside of Taylor, what's really so scary about Wisconsin? Sure they've pounded a couple of lesser opponents, but that's what bullies do. Heck, even Illinois does that when they get a chance..

What it comes down to though, is that it's still no small challenge to think that Michigan is that BAD. This much talent only goes to this much waste if the coaching staff has completely driven them like lemmings over a cliff. I've just got to think that this is not the case. But we shall see.

[drok]

Jeff... hearing the weather is going to be terrible. What's your take?

[hack]

The thing that's scary for me is the likelihood that Chryst will maximize the talent in his roster and JH won't.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm kinda with Hack here. Outside of Taylor, what's really so scary about Wisconsin? Sure they've pounded a couple of lesser opponents, but that's what bullies do. Heck, even Illinois does that when they get a chance..

What it comes down to though, is that it's still no small challenge to think that Michigan is that BAD. This much talent only goes to this much waste if the coaching staff has completely driven them like lemmings over a cliff. I've just got to think that this is not the case. But we shall see.

I'm not entirely disagreeing here but if you're going to play the "who have they played?" card, who has Michigan played? Army? Cuz Middle Tennessee just lost 41-18 to Duke

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff... hearing the weather is going to be terrible. What's your take?

Weather? Depends on who you're reading. Accuweather continues to hold for low rain chances through 2pm then chance of afternoon thunderstorms (TRW). Max winds at 15mph - generally nice. Weatherunderground, OTH, is overall terrible. Rain, high winds and TRW - a wash out.

Here's the thing. NWS fcst contains a 60% chance of TRW after 2pm and that has held for 3 straight days without much change. I've been following the weather discussion since Tuesday. A warm front is moving NE from the SW out of CO but it doesn't approach Wisconsin until late Saturday evening. Winds will gradually increase from the am to pm hours but won't be howling at KO which is 11am CDT. As the day progresses and after 1pm local time, convection increases in the fcst area and that includes Madison which is South-Central WI. The convection and approach of the frontal boundary to the WI boarder will increase the chance for bands of shower activity but there will be plenty of breaks. After 2pm (3pm EDT and well into the 2nd half) there is more convection due to local heating and TRW may become more prominent.

Something that has kept forecasters sort-of hedging there bets on the amount of rain and TRW and how quickly it moves into South Western Wisconsin is that a High Pressure dome is exiting the fcst area to the SE and there is a trailing area of dry air hovering over and to the W of Lake Michigan. It is this dry air that would mitigate bands of showers, convection and TRW forming until quite late on Saturday, probably after 4pm CDT. The latest NWS surface maps have moved that dry area a little bit E of where it was on Tuesday when Madison was in the clear. Madison is now in the "chance" of rain area.

I think the Accuweather fcst is the better one if not a little less aggressive with shower activity than it should be. I think at KO we'll have partly cloudy skies, a bit of wind to the 12-15 mph range and a slight chance of a passing light shower. By half time it will be mostly cloudy with breaks in those clouds and increasing chance of rain. If there is going to be a TRW, it will occur quite late in the game.

Remember it's weather. Look out the window for current conditions.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Weather? Depends on who you're reading. Accuweather continues to hold for low rain chances through 2pm then chance of afternoon thunderstorms (TRW). Max winds at 15mph - generally nice. Weatherunderground, OTH, is overall terrible. Rain, high winds and TRW - a wash out.

Here's the thing. NWS fcst contains a 60% chance of TRW after 2pm and that has held for 3 straight days without much change. I've been following the weather discussion since Tuesday. A Front is moving NE from the SW but it doesn't approach Wisconsin until late Saturday evening. Winds will gradually increase from the am to pm hours but won't be howling at KO which is 11am CDT. As the day progresses and after 11am local time, convection increases in the fcst area and that includes Madison which is South-Central WI. The convection and approach of the frontal boundary to the WI boarder will increase the chance for bands of shower activity but there will be plenty of breaks. After 2pm (3pm EDT and well into the 2nd half) there is more convection due to local heating and TRW may become more prominent.

Something that has kept forecasters sort-of hedging there bets on the amount of rain and TRW and how quickly it moves inot Southern Western Wisconsin is that a High Pressure dome is exiting the fcst area to the SE and there is a trailing boundary of dry air hovering over and to the W of Lake Michigan. It is this dry air that would mitigate bands of showers, convection and TRW forming until quite late on Saturday, probably after 4pm CDT. The latest NWS surface maps have moved that dry area a little bit E of where it was on Tuesday when Madison was in the clear. Madison is now in the "chance" of rain area.

I think the Accuweather fcst is the better one if not a little less aggressive with shower activity than it should be. I think at KO we'll have partly cloudy skies, a bit of wind to the 12-15 mph range and a slight chance of a passing light shower. By half time it will be mostly cloudy with breaks in those clouds and increasing chance of rain. If there is going to be a TRW, it will occur quite late in the game.

Remember it's weather. Look out the window for current conditions.

A simple "might rain" would've sufficed

[Jeff Buchanan]

Not my style ..... STFU besides wx is not as simple as your Cornell School of Hotel management or, "may I get your bags sir," fashioned mind wants to make things.

[lineygoblue]

You can never accuse Jeff of not being thorough.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Liney, thanks and cheer the fuck up ........ Dwumfor, DPJ and Charbonett all got on the plane to Madison this afternoon. The travel roster has 74 spots. If a player is not medically cleared and there is no chance for a player to play and all he is is extra weight and baggage on the aircraft, he isn't going.

[lineygoblue]

That's a positive, I'll give you that. If they weren't cleared to play, they'd be back in AA. And I didn't know that 74 could travel in the Big Ten. I thought it was limited to 60.

So I learned two things today.