Michigan @ Wisconsin, Saturday, 9/21/19, Noon(EDT), Fox Sports

[lineygoblue]

Wiz: - I fart in your general direction.

Sincerely, Liney.

hello

[THE_WIZARD_]

hi

Liney:

...how are the wifes bunions?

[lineygoblue]

They're fine, but do me a favor. Next time you're here, take your poo-poo undies home with you..... and aren't you a bit too old for 'underoos'?

hello

[Jeff Buchanan]

Opening line betting line from Vegas:

09/21 12:00 PM 343 Michigan 344 Wisconsin

48u-10 -3 -15

48u-10 -3 -15

[lineygoblue]

Excuse my old-fartedness, but can you interpret that, Jeff?

[iam416]

Wisconsin is favored by between 3 and 3.5. In the preseason, M was favored by 6.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Up until the Vegas line was posted, Odds Shark was holding to M as a five point favorite. Shortly thereafter, Odds Shark matched the Vegas Line. There is a possibility that the books got wind of rumor that started circulating around 1pm today that M had suffered an injury to a starter at Thursday's practice. There was a shit post at mgoboard on this rumor without naming the injured player or his position. People who post there regularly went wild. Within a few hours posts surfaced that said the injured player was either Mayfiled or Charbonett. Another poster said he went to the Saline football game and his son, who plays, talked with Mayfiled, Collins, DPJ and Black. All of them looked fine.

Just a few hours ago umbig11 - a reliable poster - posted this:



Then this ........ Edit umbig11 was asked to clarify his initial post and he did. This is the clarified post:



Finally this .........

FWIW, Gregg Henson says it was Mayfield, and he just hyperextended a knee.

He'll be good to go Saturday.

Everyone can stand at ease.

[iam416]

It's none of that. This game was big enough that they posted a line for this game in the preseason. It was roughly 5 or 6.

There's absolutely no way an injury to anything other than the QB moves the line more than 3 points, let alone 8. Watching Wisconsin and Michigan play in the actual season has moved the preseason line.

[Hannibal]

Wisky will cover 3 points very very easily.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, right ...... didn't think the line moved because Mayfield could be a practice casualty for the Wisconsin game. The occurrence of the change in the betting lines though seemed coincidental with the surfacing of the rumors. Thanks for clarifying.

[lineygoblue]

The most significant advantage Wisconsin has is their future NFL caliber OL pushing people out of the way for Jonathan Taylor. A steady diet of that will take its toll late in the game. The score can be made even worse dependent on how Michigan's offense plays. If Wisconsin dominates TOP as I suspect they will, this game won't be close.

Its hard to believe that Michigan actually holds a 51-15-1 edge in this series. Wisconsin is 4-3 in the last 7 meetings. This game could end up a lot like the 2009-2010 Wisconsin wins where they embarrassed Rich Rod. In 2010 Wisconsin made it look like they were playing a Pop Warner team. They kept the ball away from Michigan with their final TD drive for the ENTIRE 4th quarter.

[WingsFan]

Henson posted over the weekend the injury is a false alarm Mayfield hyperextended his knee Thursday and is fine. Though Yoder has not confirmed this yet :-)

[Jeff Buchanan]

Wisky will cover 3 points very very easily.

OVERVIEW:

I've probably read every serious post so far discussing this game. Fact based assessments don't support an M win.

In 2018, Wisconsin's defense dropped off considerably from a great 2017 season (2nd in Total D in 2017 to 29th in 2018). That was caused by a rash of injuries to the DL and LB spots along with an inexperienced secondary. The read on their 2019 D is that they will be better but not as good as in 2017.

The way you beat M's offense and dictate how the game is played is by blitzing the shit out of them early. I think it shakes Patterson's confidence.

Bucky could mount a blitzkrieg early to shake Shea but that's really not in their DC's, Jim Leonhard, wheel house - at least not to the extent that MTSU and Army tried to off-set their talent and size differentials with copious blitzing - Army was particularly successful with that. Chryst could sample that approach early but is more likely to play a good deal of disguised zone like Army also did. Army's D mitigated plenty of slants and bubble screens doing that because Patterson does not do well v. a well executed and disguised zone defense.

We'll also see plenty of the typical scrape exchanges that are used to mitigate ZR/RPO offense efficiencies by making the QB reads harder. How much Patterson, behind improved OL play, improves in running the Gattis offense v. how well the Wisconsin's D mitigates the ZR/RPO will, in large part, dictate M's success rate on offense.

Odd's Shark is showing a host of injuries on Wisconsin's roster. The only ones I could flesh out as starters were Chris Orr and Isayha Green-May at LB and Scott Nelson at S - all of them ? for M. Teams deal with these. I do see opportunities for M to thrive against the Wisky D with the PA to DPJ/Collins but we have yet to see the set of 4 great receivers on M's roster be difference makers. The first time I saw 4 Verts it produced a big gain v. MTSU. It did not work v. Army the one time it was used with Patterson missing badly. I'm not confident Harbaugh is going to be aggressive on the road and in Madison.....at least I'll be pleasantly surprised if I do see it.

Patterson, behind good blocks from the OL and downfield, needs to execute a screen pass or two correctly.That play has been dogged by poor execution all around. It wouldn't hurt to have him test the flats if Wisconsin does what Army did and play their CBs 10 yards off the LoS, a single FS and a Boundry S walked up into the box. That needs to be punished when Wisconsin does that against a suspected IZR or plain power and I think they will. In summary:

• Don Brown and his players on D continue to excel with unique adjustments to mitigate holes and leverage Wisonsin's LBs and Secondary.
• Gattis call and Patterson hit some deep balls out of 4-Verts formations.
• Complete some slants and screens and get the blocking schemes right on these to produce chunk plays like they should.
• Challenge the flats if Wisky sits back it's CBs and walks up a S.
• Run ZC with power but not as much as v. Army.
• Execute the Gattis ZR/RPO offense without fucking it up as badly as it has been in the last two games and have fun doing it.

PREDICTIONS:

I'm staying with my initial predictions for M's scoring but I'm going to back down a bit in that same category for Bucky's offense.

(1) Gattis is back as OC fully in charge, OL play improves and Patterson gets the Gattis offense into at least 2nd and maybe 3rd gear, M loses a close one 32-30. 40%

(2) Patterson starts off slow and clunky with Gattis making the calls. Harbaugh takes the play selection chart to the sidelines and in his hands, M loses convincingly 32-20. 60%

[WingsFan]

The old saying - Wisconsin is not as good as they looked first 2 games and Michigan is (probably) better than we have looked. The reason Wisconsin wins this game is JH teams suck and are weak on the road, no other way to put it. Wouldn't be shocked if DM gets in the seconded half.

[hack]

I think they're gonna win, and I think that for defensible and for less-defensible reasons.

Defensible: Runyan and Wilson are going to be huge in keeping Patterson clean. DPJ shortens the field on special teams, and is one more weapon on offense. I think we'll see the short passing/get-it-out-quick kind of air attack we'd like to see.

Less-defensible: it's just very hard to assume that Harbaugh's gone from brilliant to bum. He very well may be past his peak, but I think it's also reasonable to assume that reentry into CFB was harder than anticipated, and some bumps in the road are unfortunate but do not wreck the whole journey. He's still a guy two freak plays off being right on schedule, in the big picture. This week's game plan will be a good one.