Michigan @ Wisconsin, Saturday, 9/21/19, Noon(EDT), Fox Sports

[Niffla]

A simple "might rain" would've sufficed

Lmao

i'm dead

Jeff is good people though

love ya Jeff

[Tom W]

I'm not entirely disagreeing here but if you're going to play the "who have they played?" card, who has Michigan played? Army? Cuz Middle Tennessee just lost 41-18 to Duke

Almost everybody's played scrimmages so far.

[hack]

Army, DSL. Which is just outside the top 25, at 28. But I'm still not that confident.

[WM Wolverine]

I haven't seen this offense execute well enough to see them sustaining drives against a good Wisconsin defense. i like Don Brown vs Wisky,'s offense. I'd take the under.

[hack]

Previews suggest we would do well to run between the tackles. Well have a lot more beef on the LOS.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Some final thoughts.

Wisconsin is beatable. Their first two wins, although not an insignificant indicator of a team that has it's shit together compared to Michigan's shit, has it's own set of injuries and vulnerabilities. We tend to know EVERY LITTLE DETAIL about Michigan and not much about Wisconsin.

While Chryst seems to maximize his talent, Harbaugh, especially on offense, has a poor track record in that regard. Generally, few are confident that the 2019 offense can go on the road and get the offense into high gear. BPONE is the causal factor here. A review of the copious post Army game analysis, regression to the mean and two weeks to fix obvious mistakes made in the first two games point towards drastic improvement in offensive efficiencies.

Some match-ups favor Michigan, some Wisconsin .... on the surface. You have to go beyond the typical ones (e.g., YPC, Total O and D, etc) to see them. On offense, you have an experienced QB in Patterson v. a Freshman in Coan. M's OL is more experienced than Wisconsin's weirdly deployed DL. It's a 2-4-5 and that's not a typo:

?

Look at the front four's, esp. the interior's, weights. Hack notes M should "run between the tackles". Looks to be a very good idea. Look at the CBs and Ss. Small and inexperienced. I like the match-ups between those 4 Wisconsin players and Collins, DPJ if he plays and Black. You're not imagining things here ...... these are glaring personnel, M-O to W-D, mis-matches up front and on the back end.

Regarding M's D v. Wisconsin's O, first, take Mason out of the the diagram below entirely. Next to Kemp will be either Dwumfor, if he plays, or Jeter.

?

Wisconsin has been demonstrably weak at RT and RG against the first two opponents, they blew out. The weak competition hid the deficiency here. Even last season, despite M's win over Wisconsin, Taylor still rushed for 100 yards. Taylor is the better part of Wisconsin's offense. Take that away and there is the Cephus/Hill-S battle. I'll take Hill - S.There is the Fr. Coan who sat back and ate 4 sacks against this so called weak competition. Brown is going to run blitz. Count on it. Coan is going to eat sacks, be under pressure and make mistakes.

Against Army, I liked where Brown deployed Hudson at FS. Against Wisconsin, I like this flame throwing bullet right where he is above streaking into the backfield over the RG to disrupt Taylor's typical pick and choose one of 10 gaps to run through running style. I like Brown's 3-3-5 Hybrid that brings a LB type to the LOS (looks like a 4-2-5 Nickel). Uche is my guy for that roll not Glasgow. I like the capacity of Mettelus who steps up from his FS spot on standard downs and along with Ross those two plug gaps that Taylor likes to run through. He's going to get some. Count on that too but over-all, I like the personeel match-ups here. You should too.

Kickers? What kickers. Wisconsin's are all shaky.

Weather? Still depends on who you're reading. Accuweather was my pick yesterday. They've come up a little bit on their rain chances. Surprisingly, this morning NWS update came down a little - or at least did some more hedging with regard to south central and SE Wisconsin. Just got an on-site report and it's overcast, no rain, no wind but very humid and 72 degrees. Local TV wx report calling for rain chances to increase late afternoon. If there is shower activity during the game it will be light. It will be warm and only light to moderate (5-15mph) winds.

Look, I still maintain this is going to be hard. It's hard mostly because I don't trust Patterson to run the Gattis offense efficiently. He bails too quickly, doesn't always see his open receivers and plays in fear of an interception off the PA or RPO. He can be deadly if he sheds that fear and throws the ball aggressively. I don't worry about his reads. I worry about the coaches red lighting some of his options. I worry about Harbaugh being a shitty road coach (overly conservative) and clock manager. I worry about the coaches letting the kids down by not putting them into positions to optimize their skill sets.

So, yeah, I still think M gets beat by Bucky in a close game because of those mitigating factors I just listed but I'm hoping for the coaching staff and the players to go into Madison and have fun, not play scared and win this one. I feel a lot better about that chance than I did two weeks ago.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Check out this link if you don't have Fox on cable or OTA or you are out of town and want to watch later. It's streaming FoxSports Detroit ..... not through FoxSports. I've never used this service so, I have no idea if it is loading my computer with cookies, adds and dangerous stuff. I don't know if it archives streams either. We'll see.

Given the current circumstance with FOX clamping down on independent streamers and archiving these streams for later viewing, this is worth a look.

https://discord.gg/F7bHt4r

[Jeff Buchanan]

DPJ, ZC, JR, Dwumfor all dressed and warming up per Doug Karsh, WTKA. Wilson did not travel.

Edit: DPJ just reported as will play but limited by Fox.

BTW, ufm is a really good analyst on the Fox pre-game. Showed how to beat Brown's/M's aggressive man coverage and showed how Wisconsin used those techniques v. CMU and how osu usd in last season v. M. My take is that Brown has worked on that by playing a bit more zone.

Edit: Lots of rain moving SW to NE inot the SW corner of WI with Madison right on the edge of it. For DSL, might rain.

ufm's pick is close to talent's ...... 17-14 Wisconsin

[Detroit Dan]

Our boys must prevail.

[Detroit Dan]

1st down

[Detroit Dan]

Yes, I like UFM better as a TV analyst

[Detroit Dan]

4th down. Hmmm

[Detroit Dan]

Good call by Chryst

[Detroit Dan]

ugh. first of many flags no doubt

[Detroit Dan]

bad call, IMO