Michigan @ Wisconsin, Saturday, 9/21/19, Noon(EDT), Fox Sports

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan dropped 3 places in the polls to #10 and Wisconsin moved up 2 to #14. Preseason odds had M at -6.5. That is going to change. I'd put M as a 4.5 point dog. I know a lot of you here will see things much more gloomily.

The outcome depends on three things (1) Will Harbaugh hand back the keys to the offense to Gattis. He clearly took them away in the 2nd half v. Army. (2) Assuming he does, will Warinner shore up the OL that has been vulnerable to heavy blitz packages - a killer in the Gattis offense. (3) Can Patterson, under less pressure than he's been under so far, get the Gattis offense out of first gear and into third?

If Harbaugh shuts Gattis down or so waters down what Gattis intended to do, Wisconsin - yes that Paul Chryst Wisconsin - will roll Michigan. If Michigan has a semblance of a functional RO/RPO offense we're probably back to even. It's still going to be hard to win in Madison like it always is. With the burden of the last two games haunting M fans and a history of Harbaugh coached M teams looking weak on the road, the outlook looks bleak With Wisconsin playing M in Madison striking fear into the hearts of M fans (I doubt the players or coaches harbor such fears) the doubters will be out in full force.

This is a pivotal crossroads game for perceptions of M's capacity to be a CFB Playoff contender. Emphasize perceptions as the the media is the message. M can still lose to Wisconsin and win the East but a loss would be the start of a perceived increase in the BIG's chances to get shut out of the Playoffs again. For those of you who want to argue it's already over, mark talent's words ....."win at Wisconsin and the shit show that was the Army win will be in the rear view mirror."

Once again, I'll predict two outcomes so, pay attention:

(1) Gattis is back as OC fully in charge, OL play improves and Patterson gets the Gattis offense into at least 2nd and maybe 3rd gear, M loses a close one 41-38.

(2) Harbaugh keeps the play selection chart on the sidelines and in his hands, M loses 41-20.

[lineygoblue]

I wonder how many option plays Wisconsin can build into its offense in 2 weeks time?

[WM Wolverine]

Taking the keys away from Shea (whoever did it, Gattis very well might've) was the correct call as one more turnover and that game quite possibly was a loss.

[iam416]

[WM Wolverine]

I'd be surprised if M's offense scores.

[froot loops]

If you let Wisconsin score 41, you have a lot more problems than ever imagined. Worrying about the CFP this early is a fools errand. Take it one game at a time, you just dodged one gigantic bullet, look on it as a blessing. You stared into the abyss and lived to tell about it. Perhaps the Wolverines may actually feel like they rediscovered Zuzu's petals in their pocket and truly play with passion only known by George Bailey.

[lineygoblue]

Michigan stands at 2-0, but its the weakest 2-0 I've seen in all the years I've followed M football.

Whatever happened to 'speed in space'? Were they talking about Star Trek reruns?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, Wisky scoring 41 against Brown's D could be a little over-the-top. I may be over-rating Coan to Cephus but then again, maybe not. Cephus made 6 spectacular catches for 130 yards with 2 TDs against WMU last Saturday while Coan went 26/33/2/0 for 363 yards. Wisconsin is suddenly a passing team. Their stat line (rank/games/w-l/att/comp/int/yds/yds per att/yds per comp/TD passes/ pass yds/game):

31

Wisconsin (Big Ten)

2

2-0

65

50

0

601

9.25

12.02

5

300.5

While both of Wisconsin's first two opponents are "bad" according to observers (mostly M fans), Chryst has abused them by taking advantage of perceived/actual weaknesses compared to his own team's strengths as the game unfolded. Meanwhile Harbaugh appears to not be doing that. We don't know why with any certainty but it nonetheless is an anecdotal truth.

Coan may not have faced pressure like Brown can deliver but then again Wisconsin's OL can probably stand up to it. Meanwhile, as talent points out, M's interior DL may not be able to stop Jonathan Taylor as the game wears on.

Look, this is modern day football. Even the historically stodgiest football programs are burning up the gridiron with innovative offenses that are confounding modern defenses. That appears to be the case in the BIG where total offensive output of the conference's teams to date is the same as the BIG 12's.

This game in 2w time isn't going to be just about Wisconsin's prodigious running attack behind Jonathan Taylor, it's going to be about Wisconsin's very balanced pro-style offense that probably can best be described as a hybrid...... that's because Chryst has added the RPO to Wisky's playbook.

The thing about pre-season Michigan football is that we expected M's opponents to be scoring points and that M's offense, with the Gattis speed in space concepts, would be able to keep up - something it was not designed to do in 2018. Against Army that was not the case. Even though it was a low scoring game, when Army scored, M could not quickly respond and assert control. In my view, M was never really in this game with Army dictating how it unfolded.

M has to work to control the game in Madison and to do that requires Harbaugh to back-off on his risk averse approach to it. I'm not sure that he has the capacity to do that given what the Gattis offense has looked like. Much better, he appears to believe, to run Charbonnet 33 times and fall back on his proven DC and the players who aren't making many mistakes. That is why, at this point, I'm thinking Chryst's team is on a roll and playing confidently behind a proven balanced offense. Michigan, OTH, is playing poorly on offense - and that is an understatement. Therefor, it seems logical to predict that Wisconsin behind Coan to Cephus will score plenty of points while Michigan, depending, may not be able to keep up. If M does find the Gattis offense, they'll make enough mistakes with it to fall just short behind a stout and again proven Wisconsin D.

[WM Wolverine]

Can Shea make the read on the RPO or did the staff take that read away from him to play it safe? Shea's (or McCaffrey) ability to make that read will be critical to the offenses success and the difference between 11 wins and 8...

Twitter, Mgoblogo the had clips of big yards Shea could've had if he pulled on the RPO. If Shea pulls on just a few of those, it really opens Charbonnet to be hit first by linebackers instead of behind the line of scrimmage...

We've seen some lil glimpses of speed in face against MTSU.

[WM Wolverine]

Not terribly concerned about M's defense but Wisconsin will be a tough test. I don't think we learned much about the new starters vs Army, MTSU... Defense isn't as talented as Brown's had recently.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm thinking both McCaffrey and Patterson can make the (post snap) read on the RPO but Harbaugh has taken it away for the time being. That may be because Shea and McCaffrey have ball security issues (demonstrably Patterson) and are vulnerable to getting the ball stripped/getting injured. The sack-strip-fumble issue presents itself with the RPO just as it does so with the PA.

I also think Patterson is the more accurate passer in Gattis' offense (or off the PA on the present and apparently restricted RPO) and has demonstrated he can make the pre-snap reads and hit the open crossing receiver off a 2 step drop or the TE on a seam route. That probably explains why McCaffrey isn't getting in to the game as much as observers think he should.

But, you are correct in stating that M goes 8-4 v. 11-1 if M fails to get the Gattis offense fully operational.

[Hannibal]

Patterson sucks. The DTs will get fully exposed in this game. I'm calling 35-17 Wisconsin.

[drok]

Patterson sucks. The DTs will get fully exposed in this game. I'm calling 35-17 Wisconsin.

Put 2 down for that score.
followed by a string of good wins that makes us feel some hope, which is then followed by gut punches to some combination (or all) of losses to ND, MSU, OSU.

[hack]

Two weeks for Patterson to get healthy on the blind side. Hopefully Runyan is back and Wilson is healthy enough to ensure great blocking from the RBs in passpro. Two weeks to prepare. And for all we know things would look very different if it were Wisconsin coming off a matchup with Army and us with a directional school. I'm not saying we should expect a win, but it's reasonable to think it possible, and most likely this won't be a blowout.

[Tom W]

Byes in September usually suck, but this one just might be exactly essential. Of course, there's something ridiculous going on with the offense of this team- uninspired, lacking motivation and generally underachieving in a way that we haven't seen since September of 2007. It doesn't make sense- either Patterson is playing hurt or Harbaugh is doing something really bizarre. Either he's keeping things back (which is, well, a bit preposterous) or he's really lost it. In the letter case, you would expect to hear some rumblings.

I'll step out on a virtual limb and say that this team isn't really THIS bad and that we'll something much more in line with our expectations when they show up in Madison.

I can see them winning this game.

They'll probably end up losing to Iowa, though- That's what Michigan does.