Michigan V. Army, Saturday, September 7th, Noon EDT, FOX/Fox Video

[hack]

Agreed.

I'm overall just puzzled as to how Harbaugh's been such a great coach at every other stop, and has come here and fielded teams that make mistakes, start slow, can't finish, and wilt in the moment. This just hasn't in forever and ever looked like a well-coached team in all facets.

[lineygoblue]

Agreed.

I'm overall just puzzled as to how Harbaugh's been such a great coach at every other stop, and has come here and fielded teams that make mistakes, start slow, can't finish, and wilt in the moment. This just hasn't in forever and ever looked like a well-coached team in all facets.

^ this ^

[Hannibal]

[Hannibal]

Joel Klatt was absolutely correct today about Don Brown. How many times was Army 3rd and short or 4th and short and somehow Brown had a defensive scheme that inexplicably failed to cover a guard with a down defensive lineman? Nearly every time Army converted. This is absolutely inexcusable.

Klatt all but openly roots for Michigan and you could tell that he was getting annoyed by the incompetence. He was practically begging for Shea to pull his head out of his ass and keep the ball on an option.

[Newbomb Turk]

the ohio state would have laid 70 on this team

you misspelled "will lay"

[Jeff Buchanan]

Joel Klatt was absolutely correct today about Don Brown. How many times was Army 3rd and short or 4th and short and somehow Brown had a defensive scheme that inexplicably failed to cover a guard with a down defensive lineman? Nearly every time Army converted. This is absolutely inexcusable.

The triple option that Army runs is typically defended with a 3-3-5 formation - although this does not begin to describe the hybrid formations Brown runs. It does, however, in general and for my purposes in exposing Klatt, describe how M lined up almost exclusively v, Army with 3 tackles and a 3 Tech on the strong side and 3 LBs who are A, B and C gap fillers.

If you watch film of Army's OL play, what they do is available to any coaching staff ...... it's here's what we do, try to stop us. Their bread and butter play is the FB dive through the A and B gap. Their counter to it is the option play. It's not hard to understand Army's offense.

At the snap, the C and play side G block down on the DT that shows up in the A or B gap that the FB is going to run through - one blocks hi, the other low - this is not a chop block - and work to create a lane for the FB or QB to get as low as they can and get underneath the defenders. The back side G and T get as low as they can and force defender's outside. They do this better than any CFB team. The 3-Tech who lines up on the heavy side - usually the play side and on that G's outside shoulder is responsible for ripping through the first guy that shows up in his face and tackling the ball carrier in the back field. That would be, in this game, Jeter, Paye (sometimes) and Kemp. This guy's effectiveness is critical to keeping Army's offense off schedule.

They did this surprisingly well. There were plenty of times when M's DL held the FB or QB to a 2 yard or less gain but sometimes the FB or QB already had gained 3+ yards. Its not hard to take the hand-off and fall forward for 3 yards - to be concise about 9 feet or near the 6 foot height of their FB or QB - even if the LBs fill.

The defense wasn't the problem. They did their job and won the game on the last play of OT. Fitting.J oe Klatt is an idiot.

M's problem was the offense that was 2018 predictable and easily defended without the zone read option (why this wasn't available/executed remains a mystery), turned the ball over essentially 5 or 6 times by fumble, penalty or failed 4th and short, OL play that exposed Patterson and Patterson's janky accuracy/touch when he had time to go throough his progressions along with his dumb mistakes.

I don't think this is going to get fixed or change with Gattis "speed in space" play calling - it still looks very Harbuaghesque, If it was going to be championship level good, the first two games M has played would have been blowouts, especially the 2nd v. Army. Once again, as has been the case since Harbaugh arrived at Michigan 4 years ago, the team has no clear offensive identity and is generally one that can win v.bad opponents, loose close games against well coached, above average opponents (Army was very close and probably should have won that game) but is not likely to win championships.

[paul daugherity]

Your last paragraph is spot on Jeff. It is also what is so frustrating and disheartening about Harbaugh. UM will be good/decent yet never great. That appears to be where UM is under Harbaugh.

[hack]

Hard to argue for a higher ceiling at this point.

[froot loops]

When you have a QB you'll have an offensive identity. Harbaugh had the reputation as the QB whisperer when he came to Michigan but 5 seasons in has been a hodgepodge of quick fixes and failures at the position.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This was a diary entry at mgo late last night. The author wanted to make a point: The play calling changed from diverse to lizard brain simple after the second fumble. He hedges who was responsible for the drastic change.

I won't.

The pre-season pronouncements that Gattis had "the keys to the offense" have not been borne out by the evidence. Harbaugh's fingerprints are all over the mess that is M's offense after the first two games. The ridiculous squandering of the NFL level receiver talent on the roster is tantamount to negligence. There is good evidence Harbaugh is involved if not making the play calls himself from the sidelines ........ just like 2018.

Half totals:
4 drives, 12 passes, 23 runs, 35 plays total. 1 TD, 2 TO on downs, 1 punt
13 first down plays: 10 runs, 3 passes

Game totals: 9 drives, 32 passes, 40 runs, 72 plays total. 2 TDs, 3 TOs, 2 TO on downs, 1 missed FG, 1 punt, 1 (successful) fake punt.
31 first down plays: 20 runs, 11 passes.

Analysis:

Michigan got noticeably more conservative in the second half. I would suggest that things may go further: There appears to be a significant change after the strip-sack in drive three, Michigan's second turnover. On the subsequent drive (drive four) Michigan runs 5 out of its 6 plays, including every first down. The following drive was a "2 minute" drive that included a surprising amount of running. Michigan then produced the startling second half play selection that is recorded above.

Prior to the second lost fumble, Michigan's offense was actually quite diverse. There was a very close balance between running and passing, including on first down, there was lots of yardage gained, and the second drive produced a touchdown. The 2-minute drill balances the numbers somewhat, but even then, Michigan ran an unusual number of times for a 2-minute offense.

Michigan's only balanced drive in the second half was drive 8, which ended in the first turnover on downs, but proceeded as far as the Army 19 prior to whatever that mess of a play was supposed to be.

Whatever prompted it, Michigan contracted into a massively conservative shell after the second fumble, and only tentatively emerged from that shell a couple of times. Zach Charbonnet is a good player, but he is not the second coming of Adrian Peterson; nevertheless, he received 30 touches in regulation, an astonishing total for a freshman. One would normally suspect such numbers only on teams for whom the RB was the only solid offensive weapon on the roster, rather than a team with three or four potential NFL receivers.

It bears noting that this playcalling philosophy does not resemble the philosophy used at Alabama last year when Josh Gattis was on staff. Something caused someone on Michigan's staff to radically alter the gameplan mid-game. Whether it was Shea's health, turnover concerns, or something seen on film is unknown. Also unknown is who made the decision. However, the numbers make it clear that it was not just an accident or a coincidence. Michigan's offensive contraction was intentional.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Here's something else:

Michigan's success rate is MUCH higher on drives where they have fewer first down runs and more passes (either balanced or skewed towards passing). Their success rate was 56% in the first half with 58% passing plays and averaging 6.3 yards/play. In the second half they ran the ball 67% of the time, including 77% on first downs, and and only had a 34% success rate averaging 4 yards/play.

Whatever is going on is coaching malfeasance. There is ample evidence that Harbaugh defaults to what he knows at the first sign of trouble and Patterson's fumbles along with his dubious decision making early in the game was the cause of the default position M reverted to.

Best case is that Patterson is injured and that M's OL play is exploitable. If you have Zone Read Options and RPOs built into your offense and you have a QB that through injury or ineptitude can't stress the defense by running those plays, you have a predictable, slow developing, IZ/OZ offense inappropriately being run out of the gun.

[froot loops]

At times in the second half it seemed like they were trying to out-Army Army.

[iam416]

Harbaugh had the reputation as the QB whisperer when he came to Michigan

I've made the case for years that HARBAUGH!!!! may have had an undeserved reputation. He's a good coach, but folks had him at the top of the heap. Those types of coaches usually have won something. He certainly had that reputation, but it amounted to Andrew Luck and getting a half-decent season from Kap.

[iam416]

M fans (and M haters) really like the WR talent. I mean, it's top shelf. Now, they haven't had DPJ, but it's still pretty good. I'm not as bullish on Shea as M fans, but whatever. The general consensus was look at that offensive talent! After 8 quarters, it's looked like more of the same. It's only 2 games in so things could very easily change. And, perhaps the absence of DPJ is more important than we give it credit for. But, the offense hasn't been inspiring. Some blame it on "transaction costs" -- whatever the fuck those are.

Meanwhile, LSU is basically undergoing the same basic shift. From manball Orgeron offense to "passing cordinator/NFL concepts/high tempo/speed in space/21st century shit". They have some really talented WRs, too. And Joe Burrow is good (I like him way better than Shea and would have said that in August, in June, in April and so on). But they sure as fuck ain't going through any sort of "transaction costs."

I didn't see the MTSU game, so I can't comment on it. It didn't seem crisp. I did see a lot of yesterday. It was awful. 2 years ago Ohio State played a similarly talented Army team. It was a grind for about a quarter and half. But you score when you have the ball and eventually force them out of their offensive comfort zone. 38-7.

[Cody_Russell]