Michigan V. Army, Saturday, September 7th, Noon EDT, FOX/Fox Video

[Jeff Buchanan]

Army not as tough as we might have thought they would be if their rickety win over Rice is an indication ..... but neither is Michigan.

[lineygoblue]

Army was maybe looking ahead?

Got to contain the QB. They didn't do that so well last night, and Army's QB will be better.

[Jeff Buchanan]

We know that both Ms DTs and DEs "looked" questionable v. a much smaller MTSU that some felt should have dominated MTSU's small OL.

In modern football, size may not matter. We've seen plenty of FBS teams give P5 teams trouble. Army is probably going to give M trouble. Here's why. Smaller dudes can leverage larger ones with good technique that moves a larger DT or DE in the direction he is moving and a play call that advantages the open space created by that movement. On review, I thought that is what MTSU was doing and doing it fairly well but obviously, and this is important, not well enough to beat M. Keep in mind the MTSU offense scored 7 points on an extended drive and that 7 was in garbage time against the 2s and 3s. Their other 14 were on short fields and big plays. Take a look at this video tso see how Army specifically and probably MTSU (just guessing without film) leverages bigger bodies with smaller players on offense:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV_p3YHDPvA .......Also, I expect that Seth will have a preview of Army that will describe these techniques.

Army, using the Triple Option, Veer, Wing T - whatever you want to call it - does this better than maybe any team in the nation. M is going to be vulnerable to having their DL leveraged by smallish dudes working against our larger supposedly more athletic and stronger dudes. Against MTSU, they did not look stronger or well coached on these techniques used by teams that employ them and I think that is what MTSU was employing. That might have surprised Don Brown and the DL ..... it should not have and it better not surprise him v. Army.

Having said that, Army is going to be in the same position as MTSU. (1) They won't be able to drive the field 5 or 6X in a game, burn clock and keep M's offense off the field like they like to do. Why? Because they can't make a passing game work to sustain a series when the run game doesn't move the chains and that will happen enough times out of the talent differential M possesses over Army. Mitigating both the run game and the passing game falls on M's talented Ss and CBs who are very good at that. (2) M's offense is going to double up on whatever points Army scores. How/Why? Army's D isn't good - they rely on their offense holding the ball for long stretches. Despite what the nay-sayers have wrongly opined after ONE, yes ONE!!!! game, this is NOT M's 2018's offense. It can score points quickly and prolifically. Remember, the most improvement on both sides of the ball is seen between the first and second games.

M 48, Army 20.

[hack]

You've got to be crazy not to see that the offense is way different. R:P flipped on its head. I would have taken more Charbonnet last night, that's for sure.

We'll see how it all evolves. Didn't love last night but also didn't hate it. See the potential. Nervous about Don Brown earning his money.

[WM Wolverine]

Issues wasn't Brown, defensive line didn't impress me and the linebackers looked lost pre snap a few times. Offensive issues were execution mostly.

[hack]

We're going to need Brown to solve a few problems that talent can't solve, because there isn't much at DT. DT is the new OT. Just when OT is solved, we suffered losses to graduation, transfers and whatever at DT.

[WM Wolverine]

They've had trouble recruiting DT position till the last couple cycles then Aubrey Solomon transferred. The talented ones are true freshman (Mazi Smith & Hinton) and won't be any better than Kemp, Dwumfour, Jeter this season...

Defensive ends look good against the run but want to see them make plays behind the line of scrimmage. There are no Winovich, Mo Hurst types that can kill can an entire drive with one big play.

[Hannibal]

This will be a repeat of the 2012 Air Force game. Long annoying drives by Army countered by quick Michigan scores.

27-23 Michigan.

[iam416]

You people are insane.

[WM Wolverine]

Vegas has it as a about M 35, Army 12 game... Sounds about right...

DT's need to stop the fullback on the option which I'm more confident of them doing then getting to the QB.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You people are insane.

No, Hannibal is insane ...... but his insanity is frighteningly correct too often. Seriously though .........

I'm probably 3X into replays - sickly obsessive actually but, whatever. In the first half, I'd estimate (I didn't count and should have), about 1/2 the time, M was in zone inviting a run. If MT selected a run, it got stuffed about 75% of the time. That's because the Ss a making good reads and are quick to fill. More than 1/2 the time, when in zone coverage, MT had unsuccessful pass plays ...... they did have success with that frustrating flair pass to the boundary flat. These were just well executed along with a couple coverage muffs and a couple of solidly defended plays.

Enough of MTSU.

Army ...... defending the option is all about disciplined LB play and containing the ball carrier inside and out. Force the play to the middle of the field and allow that a well executed option game is going to get yards. Just don't let those yards turn into big plays.

It's hard to disrupt an option team's backfield but if any defense can do that it's Brown's. I don't think he will coach read and react, He will press and play aggressively with his CBs and Ss. You have to hope his approach will pay off instead of getting burned. My score pick up thread reflects my belief that M's D will do well against Army's option game.

[lineygoblue]

Does it bear mentioning at all that Army defeated Rice this past weekend by a score of 14-7?

That offense, that could only manage 14 points against R-I-C-E, is somehow going to come into Michigan Stadium, and hang 20+ points on Michigan?

I'm disappointed how Michigan performed on Saturday, but if Army had trouble scoring on William Marsh Rice University, they're not going to manhandle Michigan. I mean, come on now ...

If speed on defense is good for anything, its good for defending offenses that like to run. Michigan has gads of speed on defense, and Army would rather face a firing squad by bazooka than put up a pass. Michigan HAS to have an advantage here. A big one.

Unless Michigan sets a record in lost turnovers deep in its own territory, they'll handle the Cadets fairly easy.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Liney, I predicted Army will score 20 points. Why? Because M will turn it over and produce a couple of short fields for Army. Until the skill players get used to the offense, especially the exchanges at the mesh, there are going to be some fumbles. As well, if things go as planned, M will be up big by mid-3rd and the 2s and 3s will play. Army may be able to score a TD in garbage time.

If the coaches and players clean up the turnovers that we saw v MTSU, and they might, Army might get 10 points or less. They are not going to drive the field to score like they like to do so this fear that M won't get the possessions they need to score a bunch of points isn't going to play.

I am more confident in M's capability to score a lot of points and cover up defensive or special teams errors that led to opponent's scores than I ever have been - this even after watching one game of that offense and despite that it was a bit janky at times.

BTW, Ill be surprised if Runyn or DPJ play. M doesn't need them for Army but does for Wisconsin, Jeeter probably will play.

[lineygoblue]

I understand and agree that Michigan may give Army a couple short field situations, and that those could result in TD's. But still, I've got to believe that Michigan's defense is WAY better than Rice's defense. Even if Army gets some short fields, they're primarily a running offense. We're not going to see them line up in a spread-option and run NFL caliber WR's thru Michigan's defensive backfield. They're going to line up in a wing, or double wing, and run the option. I think Michigan can contain that, even on a short field. But, we'll see.

I agree that DPJ and Runyan will likely not play again. Holding them out gives them this week, and the bye week to prepare for Wisconsin, where they will seriously be needed. Dwumfor sounds like he's also going to be out for a bit longer, but nothing that jeopardizes his season. In Harbaugh's presser today he indicated that none of the injuries are long term.

My 20 point comment wasn't a slap at you, Jeff. I've seen so many folks on other sites and in the papers that are predicting that Army is going to run up a ton of points, and I just don't see that. I'd be more concerned had Army rung up about 50 on Rice, but they only got 14. I don't see them manhandling Michigan's defense to get a lot of points, unless we help them out a lot.

You can kick me in the shins on Saturday ....

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, it's nearing time for us to see how many of M's defensive lineman Army can injure. This is going to be brutal to watch. Brown almost certainly has his boys ready but will his boys survive getting carted, carried or limping off the field?

It's no secret that Army blocks plays illegally and never gets flagged for it. I have no idea why - apparently it has something to do with the chop blocks (a defensive player is engaged up high by one offensive player while another hits him below the waist) occur in a pile of bodies that obscures the foul.

How M's 3-Techs manage the LOS on first and second down is going to be critical to getting Army off schedule. Generally the 3-Tech plays far enough outside that he's not going to get chop blocked by the center or get double teamed .......(From an Article at PFF)



Who plays the 3-Tech in Brown's D? Kemp, Jeter, Dwumfor, Mazi Smith and Chris Hinton have all shown up playing that position in both 3-4 and 4-3 over and under schemes. None of them have been as disruptive in an opponent's backfield as Mo Hurst or, even Rashan Gary.

If you want to get clued in early to whether or not M's D will be able to get Army off schedule, watch the 3-Tech play. As above, this is the player who will line up outside the G, usually on the weak side with the DE outside him. A quick step inside that gets by the G and beats the OT blocking down gets the 3-tech in the backfield to make a play on the ball carrier.

There are two possible outcomes in this game:

(1) Army stays on schedule, makes a bunch of 11 play drives scoring on less than half of them but limits M's possessions. The net result is a lower score for M, more variance and randomness. Something like M17, Army 15 at the half, 31-22 final. You'll be very uncomfortable. I'd give this outcome a 48% chance of happening.

(2) Army fails to stay on schedule because whoever is playing at the 3-Tech is getting into the backfield on the regular and being disruptive while Ruiz and Bredeson are mucking up the center of the LOS and the LBs and Ss are stuffing the full back dive. Also, Patterson cleans up his reads and fumbles. Something like M 28, Army 7 at the half, 48-14 final. You'll be having a beer and sitting back with 2 minutes left in the first half. I'd give this outcome a 52% chance of happening.