The MICHIGAN Team 140 OVER/UNDER Contest! Bigger, Better, and...More Enjoyable?

[Jeff Buchanan]

You did .... I was house cleaning this morning and probably inadvertently deleted your post.

[lineygoblue]

I see how it is ....

[*JD*]

Jeff- the first post says that you had edited it on the 16th. What did you edit?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff- the first post says that you had edited it on the 16th. What did you edit?

???? I didn't edit the "first post" if by that you mean your post setting up the contest. My first post was not edited.

[WM Wolverine]

Another mod could've edited it.

[*JD*]

???? I didn't edit the "first post" if by that you mean your post setting up the contest. My first post was not edited.

Screen Shot 2019-08-19 at 11.26.33 AM.png
This is how it looked. Weird.

[*JD*]

As long as nothing was changed, no big deal.

[drok]

1) Regular Season Wins: 8.5 OVER

2) Heisman Votes (total) for Shea Patterson: 99.5 UNDER

3) Starts for Dylan McCaffrey: 0.5 UNDER

4) Rushing Yards for Tru Wilson: 800.5 UNDER

5) Rushing Yards for Zach Charbonnet: 550.5 OVER

6) Interceptions for Josh Metellus: 3.5 UNDER

7) Reported In-stadium Incidents (doesn't have to blow up like the Spartan March vs. Devin Bush incident but in that realm) between MICHIGAN and MSU on gameday: 0.5 UNDER

8- Times Don Brown shaves off his mustache: 0.5 UNDER

9) Defensive TD's: 1.5 OVER

10) Defensive Safeties: 1.5 UNDER

11) Times Lee Corso puts on Michigan gear at the end of a College Gameday broadcast: 1.5 OVER

12) TD Catches for DPJ: 9.5 OVER

13) Games we shut out an Opponent: 0.5 UNDER

14) (true) Road Wins: 3.5 OVER

15) Completions for Joe Milton: 7.5 OVER

16) Interceptions or Fumbles recovered and returned for a touchdown: 2.5 UNDER

17) Times Harbaugh is on the cover of Sports Illustrated (old-school topic!): 0.5 UNDER

18- 5-star (247c) Recruits signed for 2020: 1.5 UNDER

19) Sacks for Josh Uche: 6.5 UNDER

20) TD catches by TE's: 4.5 UNDER

21) Alternate Uniforms worn: 0.5 OVER

22) Offensive TD's Greater than 50 yards: 4.5 UNDER

23) Defensive TD's Allowed of Greater than 50 yards: 3.5 UNDER

24) Players named to any (coaches) All B1G Team (not Honorable Mention): 14.5 UNDER

25) Receiving Yards for Nico Collins: 635.5 UNDER

26) Catches for Tarik Black: 24.5 UNDER

27) TD's for Mike Sainristil: 2.5 UNDER

28) Total Yards for Shea Patterson: 3,000.5 OVER

29) Total (Defensive) Sacks: 32.5 OVER

30) Made FG's over 50 yards: 2.5 OVER

31) Largest Announced Crowd at Michigan Stadium: 114,132.5 OVER

32) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 OVER

33) Wins After Christmas: UNDER

Tie-Breaker: Total Point Differential 220

Bonus Points (Worth 20): Who scores the longest TD and how many yards? It can be offense/defense/special teams but you have to nail the exact amount of yards.
DPJ 57 yards

[Jeff Buchanan]

JD ..... no, I didn't change anything. I may have inadvertently opened it in the edit function, didn't edit it, then closed it. That will put my name in there. Sorry for the confusion.

[lineygoblue]

Hang in there Jeff. You're doing a fine job.

[*JD*]

I thought I submitted my picks yesterday, but they weren't there this morning. Try, try again ...

Apparently, you posted them in the Basketball Recruiting thread.

http://www.detroitlionsforum.com/forums/forum/sports-discussion-forums/university-of-michigan/5187-u-of-m-basketball-recruiting-discussion?p=1646160#post1646160

[lineygoblue]

oops

[Jeff Buchanan]

This guy at mgo has done these pre-season statistical analysis the past couple of years. We can debate the value of fancy stats. I like them but with a caveat. You have to play the games. Here's what the author has to say about that:



Overall, and this includes overlaying S&P+, FPI and adjusting that overlay by win probabilities,

• Chances of a Michigan losing season: vanishingly small.
• Chances of Michigan going undefeated: 16-28%.**

** It's worth reading what this means in terms of actual win probabilities and point spreads.There is a huge variation in score outcomes.......That, dear reader, is why they play the games.

What this fundamentally tells us about fancy stats is that while they are fun and give meaning to pre-game boasting and confidence, they have to taken with a grain of salt. In 2018 Michigan was a 1 TD fav in most books. Both S&P and FPI favored Blue in that game .......... 63-39. Nobody predicted that outcome or an over-under of 102!!!!

Sorry this is hard to read. I had to do all kinds of contortions to copy this from the article. Go read the whole article at mgo it in all it's sleep inducing complexity - the charts are hard to read in the article too but a bit bigger than this one. Oh, for those with bad eyes, M wins the East and the West, not unexpectedly from the gut, is a dog fight between Minny, Wiscy. Neb and Iowa.

FPI3.PNG

[WM Wolverine]

Surprised Badgers are rated so highly, I've seen them projected pretty low elsewhere.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, and that's the rub with fancy stats. There are a lot of ways to make the data serve the author's purpose or to influence the books.The uncertainty over a particular game's outcome, though, can be enticing to our prurient, often obsessive interests in freaking football.