Michigan Football, Team 140, 2019 Season

[iam416]

So here is the 247 Composite rankings of CFB rosters heading into the season: https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Fo...lentComposite/

The anachronism is probably Clemson, but Clemson hits on their 5* kids at like a 100% rate -- and by that, I mean they turn into top 3 round draft picks, if not first round. But, that also tells you what I sort of think -- Clemson isn't as good as they were last year. There's a lot of faith in Lawrence.

But, that's an aside. Basically, M and Penn State and Auburn and aTm and maybe a few other are comparable. But they gap to next tier and the tier above that is, at least, meaningful.

And this year's class isn't going to do much more than land right about where you'd expect: 10 to 15.

And, look, I get that recruiting isn't the be all end all. I get that Wisconsin isn't in the top 10. And I think Wisconsin is really good. Jonathan Taylor, man. Steal. So, it happens. But on a year in, year out basis, Wisconsin won't be able to compete with Ohio State (and hasn't). And that gets to your revised expectations -- HARBAUGH!!! recruits well enough for a one off now and again, but he's not winning big every year.

[Hannibal]

Fun fact heard on this AM's mgopodcast:

Michigan has failed to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs for six consecutive games. Wow.

[Hannibal]

So here is the 247 Composite rankings of CFB rosters heading into the season: https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Fo...lentComposite/


And, look, I get that recruiting isn't the be all end all. I get that Wisconsin isn't in the top 10. And I think Wisconsin is really good. Jonathan Taylor, man. Steal. So, it happens. But on a year in, year out basis, Wisconsin won't be able to compete with Ohio State (and hasn't). And that gets to your revised expectations -- HARBAUGH!!! recruits well enough for a one off now and again, but he's not winning big every year.

Let me know when we get to see that one-off.

[hack]

So here is the 247 Composite rankings of CFB rosters heading into the season: https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Fo...lentComposite/

The anachronism is probably Clemson, but Clemson hits on their 5* kids at like a 100% rate -- and by that, I mean they turn into top 3 round draft picks, if not first round. But, that also tells you what I sort of think -- Clemson isn't as good as they were last year. There's a lot of faith in Lawrence.

But, that's an aside. Basically, M and Penn State and Auburn and aTm and maybe a few other are comparable. But they gap to next tier and the tier above that is, at least, meaningful.

And this year's class isn't going to do much more than land right about where you'd expect: 10 to 15.

And, look, I get that recruiting isn't the be all end all. I get that Wisconsin isn't in the top 10. And I think Wisconsin is really good. Jonathan Taylor, man. Steal. So, it happens. But on a year in, year out basis, Wisconsin won't be able to compete with Ohio State (and hasn't). And that gets to your revised expectations -- HARBAUGH!!! recruits well enough for a one off now and again, but he's not winning big every year.

Back half of the top ten is reasonable by that measurement. You'd hope for no lower than 6 or 7, because Michigan still has things to sell that no other team on that ranking has. I'd expect it to do better than PSU and Auburn and aTm as long as the coaches do a reasonable job with the talent they bring in. Which they obviously aren't now.

[hack]

The other thing that needs to happen if not a new coach is getting Jedd Fisch back. The offense made sense when he was here. If JH is still around, make Fisch an offer he can't refuse, and go back to what JH is comfortable tinkering with. That offense with Warinner's OL should be a winning combo week in/week out, save for the one to two times a year Don Brown gets got.

[iam416]

IMO, they should be at 5-7. So, CONCUR! I think UFM would have them in the top 3.

[froot loops]

4. HARBAUGH!!!! is not going to be an elite recruiter. There's just that much to it. That's the hard cap on his program. Whatever he does, coaching-wise, he's not going to field teams that match the big dogs in talent. And, right now, he's not closing that gap with coaching acumen.

This is the big problem, he's running the program like he is an elite recruiter. ts OK to process players if you can get results like Saban or Meyer, they either stay or the coach gets someone just as good. Its why we laugh at AA for complaining about freshman playing. Saban has his pick of the litter and the staff to get them up to speed. They don't have to rely on 5th year program players that much.

If you are processing players like Harbaugh is and don't have the all-Americans on the depth chart. You have to rely on the program players. But if you kind of chased them off, you are in trouble. They had a lot of players go to the league last season.

Matching the Bamas and Clemsons in recruiting is an OSU problem, not a Michigan problem. Michigan isn't at that level and hasn't been there for a long time.

[iam416]

That's an unusually lucid take.

[froot loops]

As a Spartan fan I know the dilemma very well. We don't even attempt to recruit to the heights that Saban and Perles did, but we do get some really good performances from program players. And while Spartan consistently complain about the offensive staff, there is continuity.

[Hannibal]

The processing of players is something that has only appeared in the last year or so to a large extent. Harbaugh has always processed recruits, but it was 3* guys that didn't belong in the classes anyways. I don't know what has been going on lately but there has been a ton of grumblings about injuries and Harbaugh taking weird approaches with them. Harbaugh injures the fuck out of guys in practice lately. Then it seems like Harbaugh questions guys' toughness, and that runs guys off. But the team is still Charmin soft, so that means that we get the worst of all worlds.

[hack]

This is the big problem, he's running the program like he is an elite recruiter. ts OK to process players if you can get results like Saban or Meyer, they either stay or the coach gets someone just as good. Its why we laugh at AA for complaining about freshman playing. Saban has his pick of the litter and the staff to get them up to speed. They don't have to rely on 5th year program players that much.

If you are processing players like Harbaugh is and don't have the all-Americans on the depth chart. You have to rely on the program players. But if you kind of chased them off, you are in trouble. They had a lot of players go to the league last season.

Matching the Bamas and Clemsons in recruiting is an OSU problem, not a Michigan problem. Michigan isn't at that level and hasn't been there for a long time.

Are there examples of players that fit this? I'm open to that, but off the top of my head I can't think of any upperclassmen that haven't been invited back for a fifth year that we really could have used. I could argue that Patterson was fool's gold and that the program might have been better off continuing to develop Peters and McCaffrey and sticking with the offense JH wanted and replacing Pep Hamilton with someone more able to provide the same kind of thing. But it seems to me that Michigan hits on a decent amount of program players, and has guys matriculate into nice 4th-5th-year players. Noah Furbush wasn't chased off, for example. Jon Runyan's been a program player who came on late. Where players get chased off is at the positions with serious young talent, like Dylan Crawford making way for DPJ, Collins, Black, etc.

I do think the program does a decent job identifying three-stars and developing them. Khaleke Hudson is overrated, but a good outcome for a three-star recruit. Metellus has an fringe-NFL future. Hoke probably deserves most of the credit for Mo Hurst, but Ronnie Bell is also looking like a hit.

[hack]

The processing of players is something that has only appeared in the last year or so to a large extent. Harbaugh has always processed recruits, but it was 3* guys that didn't belong in the classes anyways. I don't know what has been going on lately but there has been a ton of grumblings about injuries and Harbaugh taking weird approaches with them. Harbaugh injures the fuck out of guys in practice lately. Then it seems like Harbaugh questions guys' toughness, and that runs guys off. But the team is still Charmin soft, so that means that we get the worst of all worlds.

That's something I wonder about.

[Hannibal]

For anyone who thinks that Harbaugh will never get fired, check out mgoblog from today and this past weekend. mgoblog is full of homers and the forums right now, I would say, are very solidly in favor of either firing Harbaugh today or firing him at the end of this season if things continue to go south badly. mgoblog is usually one of the last places to warm up to the idea that the coach needs to go. If that trend is still holding then I'm guessing that the majority of the Michigan nation is ready to kick Harbaugh's ass out the door. Back in 2014 everyone perceived that there would be a huge gulf between what the fans wanted and what the University would do, but ultimately the University did the right thing. I can't make predictions on this yet, but I wouldn't guarantee that Harbaugh has his job next year.

[hack]

Agreed. Patience wears thin much faster now. People still ignore that ``nice guys finish last'', so to speak, and still believe this is a great job most HCs would want -- thus contributing to its increasing unattractiveness -- but I'm no longer feeling like JH will have a free pass. Especially with beloved alumni of the program expressing themselves out loud.

[paul daugherity]