Michigan Football, Team 140, 2019 Season

[lineygoblue]

With Thomas out and the CB room depleted, what approach does Don Brown take with his defense to start 2019?

Does he continue to play aggressive press-man and see how Ambrey's replacements do with it?

Does he play more zone?

I think he probably does play a bit more zone, and I'd guess that Dax Hill will take on a deeper role than he might have taken originally. The young kids he has back there may lack experience, but they're talented. Probably a little less gambling (blitzing) and a little more contain. Its good news that Ambrey may be back at all, much less be back for as early as Wisconsin.

[lineygoblue]

Brandon Peters was announced today as the starter for Illinois.

I'm sure the Big Ten Network is already wetting themselves with anticipation over the "trap game" that is brewing for Michigan at Champaign in October.

Fact is, Peters may be a really nice guy, and a smart guy, .. but he was no better than the 4th string QB this year, coming out of Spring practice.

Which could mean one of two things, or both:

1. Michigan is really deep at the QB spot .. or ... 2. Illinois had really bad prospects at QB for Peters to compete with.

Its probably both.

But Peters won't beat Michigan.

[Hannibal]

Illinois had possibly the worst B1G defense of the 85 scholarship era last year. I don't see Brandon Peters being good enough to overcome that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Andrew Stueber is done for the season with an ACL tear requiring surgery. This per Harbaugh minutes ago during his presser. Mayfield will start at RT.

[drok]

That's really unfortunate. We finally have a bit of depth at OLine and it vanishes just like that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This guy, Bronxblue, at mgo has a way with words that seems to capture, at least, my sense of and frustration with Harbaugh history. He notes that JH has simply returned M to it's Bo-like character. Nothing more. Harbaugh has 4, very much like Bo, 10 win seasons .......

....... And yet, for all of that consistency it's still a team that's gone, 1-9 v. top 10 teams, 1-3 in bowl games and hasn't beaten OSU since 2011. In a game played by college students trying to corral an oblong ball, some randomness is to be expected, some inches given and others denied due to the vagaries of space and time, but at some point you'd have hoped Michigan could have broken through a bit.

And that's why I can't shake the sense that "10 wins and a dispiriting loss to at least one rival" is the steady state for my expectations.

After a decade in the relative wilderness of college football mediocrity, Michigan is again expected to be a national contender more often than not; since Harbaugh's first year Michigan has been ranked the following in the AP top 15:

• 2016 - #7
• 2017 - #11
• 2018 - #14
• 2019 - #7

In the decade before Harbaugh arrived Michigan had been ranked in the top 15 preseason exactly 3 times:

• 2006 - #14
• 2012 - #8
• 2006 -

So Michigan is in a much better space than it has been basically since Carr manned the sidelines, and some of the moves Harbaugh made shaking up his staff points to a self-awareness and need for change that you don't necessarily see on other ships barreling toward icebergs. With the shake-up at OSU and their friendly schedule, Michigan is as likely as any team to compete for a conference title and a shot in the playoffs; odds makers certainly see them near the top. But this still feels like a season with the check engine light blinking silently, and at some point that's going to go from a light warning to very real problem.

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/best-and-worst-preseason-0

[iam416]

Bo never played a game where M could have won the national championship. Not just that he didn't win any NCs, he was never even within 1 season-ending win of winning the NC. So, the HARBUAGH!!!!=Bo comparison is pretty good, IMO.

In contrast, Woody not only won 3 MNCs, but also choked away at least 3. Even Earle choked away 1. Coop never played for the MNC. Tressel was 1-2.

[lineygoblue]

This guy, Bronxblue, at mgo has a way with words that seems to capture, at least, my sense of and frustration with Harbaugh history. He notes that JH has simply returned M to it's Bo-like character. Nothing more. Harbaugh has 4, very much like Bo, 10 win seasons

One thing I have noticed along the way, is that we seem to have returned to a process of succession, also a characteristic of the Bo era. Especially in the Quarterback room. Harbaugh now has in place behind Patterson; McCaffery, Milton, McNamara and JJ McCarthy about to sign his LOI in December. All of whom can play. The QB situation is the best its been since the late 90's in this respect.

Other areas where we now have successors lined up is on the OL, where all three true freshmen from last year were able to red shirt. Plus some new guys who came in on the OL this year played so well during camp, that Harbaugh has said that they've earned playing time. With the new red shirt rules, he said he plans to get them in to at least 4 games if at all possible, and has no qualms about burning their red shirts if their performances call for it.

We're also seeing more quality depth at DB and S, and continued quality along the DL.

The worst position right now is probably RB, but help is on the way. Charbonnet may be the short term answer.

I'm running the risk of infuriating Hanni with this uncalled for optimism, but I think there is still hope for the Harbaugh era.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Bo never played a game where M could have won the national championship. Not just that he didn't win any NCs, he was never even within 1 season-ending win of winning the NC. So, the HARBUAGH!!!!=Bo comparison is pretty good, IMO.........

JH has had two seasons where if he beats osu, M wins the E and has a shot at the CFP.

Bo seemed to have one or two of those head scratching losses that would essentially eliminate M from the BT title and season ending AP/UP #1. He had some very good teams. One of them got shut out of the Rose because of the can't go twice in a row rule - I can't remember or find in a quick search which one that was.

But, yeah, Bo and M in general. This quote is spot on as representative of how I have come to view M football:

............... I can't shake the sense that "10 wins and a dispiriting loss to at least one rival" is the steady state for my expectations.

[iam416]

One of them got shut out of the Rose because of the can't go twice in a row rule - I can't remember or find in a quick search which one that was.

You can't find it because it never happened. M lost out to Ohio State on AD votes twice -- in 1972 when they finished tied with OSU for the title but lost in Columbus and then, famously, in 1973.

In any event, Bo's teams habitually lost big games. His best teams were probably those early to mid 70s teams that just couldn't beat Ohio State. The teams that did beat OSU had a head-scratching regular season loss and then, almost always, a bowl loss. It was exceedinly rare for his teams to even finish in the top 5.

But that's all history. HARBAUGH!!!! is here now and he has a team way more talented than Ohio State. And Ryan Day is a joke hire. So, the writing is on the wall.

[Jeff Buchanan]

One thing I have noticed along the way, is that we seem to have returned to a process of succession, also a characteristic of the Bo era. .......I'm running the risk of infuriating Hanni with this uncalled for optimism, but I think there is still hope for the Harbaugh era.

During Bo's era, not only did the 85 scholarship rule not exist but M had a pretty big recruiting advantage nationally and especially within the BT. Not only that, but the most talented players didn't leave after 2-3 years for the NFL. This was the age of the big 2 and the little 8.

Things are way different with regard to recruiting and by extension building depth. There is absolutely no question that a team's ability to recruit and build depth through that process separates the men from the boys. Winning (now) and coaching (relationships) means way more than it did in Bo's era. It's easy to see why CFB programs at the top of the heap are where they are and why "the rest" including Michigan are where they are.

Where would M be now if JH had won the BT and CFP/NC once or twice in the last four seasons along with going, say, 8/2 over it's rivals (MSU, ND and osu)? Winning and recruiting go hand-in-hand. Harbaugh needs to get over that 10 win hump and vanquish ALL M's rivals in the process. 2019 sets up nicely to do that even though that "check engine light" is on, esp. as it relates to the defense.

[WM Wolverine]

Offense could be good enough even though the defense takes a step back...

Agree about the QB situation, whose here and who they've signed are excellent. Offensive line has four guys who are going to be drafted by the NFL, they'll leave a big whole for next season where M will need multiple 2nd/3rd year types to be ready... Receiver position is as strong as any on the team and tight end is a strength... That just leaves running back where Charbonnet, Turner, and Wilson is all they have. Charbonnet I've as good as any RB M has recruited in forever but tough to know he'll be ready as a true freshman.

[froot loops]

You might get a bump in recruiting if you had more success under Harbaugh but I doubt it would be the magic elixir. Harbaugh is a big name and that gets him in the door, Michigan is a big name so that gets you in the door. I think you've seen the ceiling of his recruiting. He gets enough recruits and approaches it some novel ways, but he's never struck me as the indefatigable recruiter that Saban or Swinney are. Plus any comparison of Bo's era has to point out the home state of Michigan's high school football has not gotten any better in relation to other states. It's either stagnant or gotten worse and it is certain that it won't improve.

[hack]

I'll be on board with Bo 2.0 if Harbaugh proves unable to let go the reins to Gattis or whoever follows him. Or if Don Brown continues to solve each and every single problem with aggression. There's a good chance this is how it ends up, but it's not a certainty.

Re recruiting, I also agree with "Where would M be now if JH had won the BT and CFP/NC once or twice in the last four seasons". Michigan would be in a better position were that 2016 OSU game played without a thumb on the scale for OSU. That "loss" really set the program back. Is what it is, tho.

[iam416]

You might get a bump in recruiting if you had more success under Harbaugh but I doubt it would be the magic elixir. Harbaugh is a big name and that gets him in the door, Michigan is a big name so that gets you in the door. I think you've seen the ceiling of his recruiting.

Co-sign. And, btw, it's a pretty high ceiling.