Michigan Football, Team 140, 2019 Season

[WM Wolverine]

https://predictivefootball.com/running-from-shotgun-formation-works-even-in-short-yardage/

Thoughts?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think I saw this when it was published late last season or something with a similar analysis and conclusion. The success rate on running plays out of the shotgun on 2nd/3rd and short (1-2y) is higher than it is when the QB is under-center.

I think the main reason for this is, as the author offers, is "optionality."

I don't think this is any kind of revelation for most CFB coaches. It's another play in the play book and I think more "granular data" would demonstrate its use will be dictated by not only down and distance but also field position, position match-ups and the opponent's defensive tendencies.

In Michigan's case, Harbaugh is way too predictable. i.e., and looking retrospectively, defenses knew, depending on down and distance and who was in the game, JH would call a run with the QB under-center and a pass from the shot gun. IOW, in short yardage situations the combo of players and formations told defenses exactly what M was going to run ..... boom ...... ask me again how many times M was stuffed on 4th and 1 v. UF in the Peach. I'd add that I think defenses facing M's offense knew what was coming 90% of the time regardless of down and distance. I also think JH didn't care about that ..... until now. Most of the time it didn't matter and M could out execute lesser opponents. But that didn't work against defenses with talent and good coaching.

Thankfully there are signs that Harbaguh has had a Saban moment ..... one he should have had 2 years ago.

[WM Wolverine]

Yup, this information isn't terribly shocking other than maybe to our last two coaching staffs. Having more than a couple FB/TE's on the field is hindering your ability to run the ball. Taking a FB off the field for a WR, spreads out the defense and takes a defender (or two) out of the box...

Having a QB that is a threat to run via a RPO is another aspect the defense must account. It prevents defenses from cheating to defend the run which is so, so predictable in Harbaugh's many plays from 22 (2 rb/fb, 2 TE) offensive personnel.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Have you been talking to talent?

When talent has indulged me and we've had this discussion and I was trying to rationalize Harbaugh's plodding, run-centric offense that played to a great defense, talent would say, the FB/TEs in 2X personnel formations limits offensive potential. Spreading the field using 1X personnel, optimizing a mobile QB running RPO's makes it much harder to stop such an offense than what Michigan under Harbaugh - and every other M coach since Schembechler except RR - was running. As usual in this matter, he is fucking right.

[WM Wolverine]

When the spread first hit college football over a decade ago, I was surprised by those teams ability to run the ball from the shotgun though questioned if they'd struggle in short yardage and in the red zone.

Neither is the case, fancy stats shows us it's both strongly preferable to spread the field with 3+ receivers in the red zone and you're significantly more successful running the ball out of 1x personnel than 2x, in every situation.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yes ...... and sadly, we've seen M fuck around with power for more than two decades now minus RR's 3 years. And that turned out to be a set back due to recruiting players for RR's type of offense and not caring about defense when Hoke, then Harbaugh went back to power and man-ball.

Not trying to say M could have done well with Rodriguez's spread game. I like an element of power in the college game and that means 2X personnel but the offense has to be able to flex out of that to 1X formations when the game demands it. Harbaugh has been woefully inept in recognizing the need for that. He's had the talent, especially in 2018 and, IMO failed stunningly to adapt to teams that could score a lot of points running hybrid offenses while shutting down Harbaugh's predictable power game with the big passing play attempted about once per quarter.

He knows now he has to upgrade his O, but damn, it took a long time and he's suffered some humiliating defeats in the face of high fan expectations as M's HC. He's also frustrated a lot of good players with his game. He's utterly failed to optimize those players per their prodigious skill sets gained out of predominantly spread formations in HS.

Nothing I can do about it except be pissed off and complain. There are signs and for that I'm encouraged but the rubber still needs to meet the road and I remain fairly skeptical about change and worried that the Gattis hire and the Hamilton departure won't turn out to be a harbinger of better things to come. 20+ years of watching seasons of shitty M football that culminate in losing to osu followed by a bowl game that is uninspiring to say the least, a catastrophic and embarrassing loss that hurts recruiting at worst, will do that.

[iam416]

Have you been talking to talent?

WM was part of that conversation and, I might add, on the side of the angels with me.

The shotgun stuff is interesting. I didn't look too closely at it, so forgive me for asking questions that would be otherwise apparent to those that read it. What metric do they use? I assume it's a fancystats measure of some sort that shows shotgun runs in short yardage increase chances to win or maybe those runs produce more yards. What I'd like to know -- and maybe they say it -- is what is the conversion success rate? A QB Sneak, e.g., has a ceiling of 1.5 yards and a floor of 0.5 yards which is about perfect if you want to convert less than a yard. The runs from the shotgun can go for TDs or lose 4 yards.

I guess if they measure it terms of increased likelihood to win then that sort of robust stat accounts for conversions, extra yards, etc.

The larger point about Manballing with FBs remains.

I remain fairly skeptical about change and worried that the Gattis hire and the Hamilton departure won't turn out to be a harbinger of better things to come.

Give it time. By August you'll be on-board again!

Also, it would seem to me that M's chances for meaningful success will fall to the offense. They certainly have the pieces to be dynamic enough on offense to win the B10. That's not to say the defense won't be good, but I think it'll take a step back. Bush was a fantastic player. And even if it doesn't take a step back, he larger question of what Don Brown does in the aftermath of the Ohio State game and even the Florida game is also significant.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Cliff Notes on the data - the author's baseline data involves analyzing "How Many Points are left on the Table." Method explained below:

As a reminder, points added is the best way to translate the results of each play into the addition, or subtraction of points teams should expect to score

Under Center	2850	0.05	60.8%
Shotgun	1360	0.20	66.0%

How many points are left on the table?


To get an idea of how much value in term of points added teams are losing by not running in the shotgun, I calculated the aggregate difference of running from shotgun and under center times the average number of seasonal short-yardage runs for an NFL team.¹

have added more points so far this season.

[iam416]

Thanks, JB. I have to say, I'm surprised by success rate. I'm not surprised by the points added.

[Hannibal]

I'm a little skeptical about fancystats but I have been suspicious for a long time that the best ways to run the ball are, by far...

1. Getting guys out of the box
2. Making defenses account for the QB.

If you're not doing both of those you probably don't have an elite running game. If you're not doing either one, then it's probably not even good.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, that pretty much describes what the the offensive brain trust that has occupied Schebemchler Hall for the last 7 years HAS NOT DONE. While every other championship caliber team - the ones that have established a winning program that is sustainable through recruiting - has done those two things over the last 5-10 years, Michigan has steadfastly refused to be a part of that movement. In fact, I'd say Harbaugh has given the middle finger to it probably along with Stanford's HC, a Harbaugh protege, David Shaw. I can't think of any other P5 programs that have done that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Harbaugh has hired two more analysts bringing the total to 8 on is staff. This is in addition to the 10 Assistant coaches already on staff and that hits the NCAA limits for these types. The most encouraging recent analyist hire is Ferris State's OC, Steve Casula. In their league, FSU is good. They've made the play-offs both years where Casula was the OC and reached the championship game in 2018 losing to Valdosta State 47-49. I was hoping someone would dig deep and find this. It describes FSU's offense - in short it is a 1X personnel formations team that does a lot of RPO with a running QB. They are a spread team X10. While it is correct to note that analysts can't coach players, this doesn't mean they can't work with the coaching staff to implement new concepts.

The Power Read concept employs a hybrid of a traditional power scheme and a read option scheme and uses the mixture of schemes to gain an advantage with a tailback perimeter run or a quarterback downhill run into open space.

This is right up Warriner's and Gattis' alley.

https://www.xandolabs.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3072:ferris-state-power-read-jet-read-concepts-2&catid=94&Itemid=162

[lineygoblue]

That's probably the most encouraging sign since the last two games. I'm glad to see that Harbaugh didn't simply hole up in the fort, and tell everybody that his offense is just fine, and leave things the way they were. He's taken time to review what has happened, and he's making changes where they are needed. Gattis is considered to be one of the fine young minds in college coaching, and his offensive theory is to get the ball into the hands of the team's best talent, and get the ball downfield. Gattis probably won't be with Michigan very long. I'd imagine 2 years tops, before some other program offers him a HC position. So, Harbaugh has that much time to get things straightened up, and make his offense more dangerous. Casula will help there as well because he can review game film and give Harbaugh and Gattis direct feedback and provide suggestions on how things can be even better. I think these are very good moves. I have no idea how they will translate into "W"'s, but it certainly has to be a step in the right direction.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Casula's hiring as an analyst could easily be a back stop to Gattis leaving after a season or two. There are signs - or at least the usually unjustified optimism for M football I suffer from points to them - that Harbaugh is moving in the direction of a less hands on approach to coaching and letting his assistants take charge. There was plenty of speculation last season that something was wrong with Harbaugh. He just didn't seem right. After 4y at the helm, not meeting fan expectations and the ensuing criticism of him and the program, could have been a factor contributing to a decreased sense of well being and worth. So, stepping back a bit might be a good move for him, his family and M football.

[iam416]

Putting hack's thoughts in the proper thread:

I'm kinda left wondering what's the point of Harbaugh anymore. What happened to the guy who had such a unique and effective take on offense? He isn't coaching up QBs into magic, he's not dialing up a weirdly effective Bo 2.0 offense, and his guys aren't outcompeting other teams on the field. Nor have we seen that he's particularly good at in-game decisionmaking. He's moving to that delegation model of coaching, which just doesn't seem like it plays to his as-advertised strengths. I'm glad things are trending toward sanity with the football program, but unclear why they were insane in the first place and less likely to imagine that it all blossoms into joy one day.