Florida 41, Michigan 15

[Jeff Buchanan]

Refreshing but deluded.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm not surprised at all by the lack of interest in this game as evidenced by the dearth of posts here and elsewhere. Not a lot of enthusiasm. While Michigan may "own Florida," this is not the same Gator team M played to open 2017. Dan Mullen, unlike Jim McElain, is more like ryan day in his approach to the game. The Gators are pretty spready, run a lot of shot-gun out of those formations but still have a credible power run game (S&P+ #32).

Felipe Franks is a big dude in the mold of guys like Vince Young (6'6", 240). He's got Haskins like skills in the passing game. If Haskins is an A+, Franks is an A to A-:

175

299

2284

23-6

58.5%

....... but Franks is a better runner than Haskins

84

350

4.2

6

The WR from Mississippi State, Van Jefferson, that we thought was coming to M with Patterson, went to UF. He's big and he's good (caveat, note his catch rate of 48.4%):

64

31

439

6

48.4%

14.2

The Gators use the combination of Lamical Perine (5'11, 227) and Jordan Scarlett (5'11, 210) as their bell cow RBs. Kadarius Toney (5'11, 190) is a Percy Harvin line up anywhere dude.

Mullen can employ the same kind of quick receivers, both WR and Slots, that osu gashed M with. Brandon Watson, playing at the CB position opposite David Long, looked pretty much like this all game long:

Brandon%20Watson%20burned%20Michigan%20football%20vs%20Ohio%20State%202018_1543244243859.jpg_14648034_ver1.0_640_360.jpg

I went back and reviewed Watson's season. What happened to him v. osu is inconsistent with his play in the preceding 9 games. He was solid if not spectacular. It's a head scratcher. Still, if Brandon Watson is the starting CB, expect to see him tested. The status of Long and Hill isn't clear. Long is alleged to be playing in the bowl and so is Hill. I'd like to see Watson play and play well. But Brown better have him on a short leash and/or (unlike v. osu) prepared to handle any kind of new duties Brown might call on him to perform.

I think the key to this game is for M to reverse it's miserable performance of the DL v. osu and get pressure on Franks. Kemp, Dwumfour and Mone wil have to be physical inside. Behind the DL the LBs (Ross, Gill, Hudson, probably Anthony Jordan and Josh McGrone) are going to have to play enough above there established levels, both in the run and pass game to make up for Devin Bush's absence. That is a tall order. On the outside, Paye, Uche and Winovich need to make Franks pay for indecision when his first read is covered. That never happened to Haskins for two reasons, he had a clean pocket to step into or his first read was blindingly open. Brown must improve the synergy of these three units to beat Mullen's offense.

Michigan's offense can move the ball. Scoring, with M's abysmal Red Zone performance in 2018 (127th nationally), is another thing. With Higdon not playing, Harbaugh may be inclined to throw the ball more but I'm not convinced he's going to change his MO and do that. If he trots out the same game plan he did v. osu (the one that huddled down 41-19) and doesn't quickly respond to a quick scoring offense Mullen is likely to throw at him, M loses and not by a little.

If the brain trust at M decides to utilize the prodigious skills on the roster at all the receiving positions and unleash Patterson, M can win this game. M needs to play much faster than it did v. osu. There is no reason to not let Patterson audible into plays that punish 8-10 guys in the box. That might be a screen, RO or better yet an RPO but let's shelf the reliance on the PA.

I'm still depressed about M football's consistent shit-the-bed performances and accordingly quite negatively biased against an M win over Florida on Saturday. Memories of M losing to Usc in January, 18 because the team looked disinterested and got out played, lingers. Florida will be hungrier and more focused on beating M. So, I'm sticking with my earlier prediction, 38-27, Florida.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan opened practice for a short time this morning and Dylan McCaffrey was throwing the ball. He's not expected to play on Saturday and Harbaugh was mum on who Patterson's back-ups might be. He named all of the QBs on the roster, except McCaffrey, including Michael Sessa who sat out all last year recovering from an ACL injury.

In other Peach Bowl news, JBB has stayed in Ann Arbor and did not travel with the team. He is said to have elected to not play in the bowl game due to his knee injury (not cleared to play?) but will play in the East West Shrine game in preparation for the NFL draft. Andrew Steuber will start at RT. I doubt this is a Higdon type move. More like a Bush move.

https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/201...ing-again.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

Don Brown gave his first interview today during Peach Bowl practice following the blow-out loss to osu during which his defense gave up an astounding and uncharacteristic 567 yards and 6 TDs.

He accepts responsibility for it but says he refuses to live in any negativity surrounding the loss. Has a group of kids who played great defense as a unit during the regular season and one game shouldn't define it. You move forward and he has the responsibility to move his group forward to face a Florida team that is pretty good.

Brown knows how to talk to the media. Great job. Now, don't get smoked by Mullen like you did v. ufm/day.

https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2018/12/michigans-don-brown-youve-got-to-move-on-from-ohio-state-loss.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

Chase Winovich will play in the Peach, probably the Senior Bowl before participating in the NFL combines even though he needs surgery. He didn't get specific about the injury he says he sustained v. osu.

Chase's position is in stark contrast to that of Higdon, Gary. For those of us who value Michigan traditions involving "The Team ....." this is refreshing. I don't say this to elevate Winovich and criticize those who opted out of playing with their team mates. JMO, but if I was interviewing Higdon, Gary and Winovich who were applying for a job in my company, I'd hire Winovich hands down.

Decisions like this are personal and it's not unreasonable to put future NFL contracts ahead of loyalty to something greater than yourself. I admire Winovich for his decision.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/jeff-seidel/2018/12/27/michigan-football-chase-winovich-surgery/2420515002/

[WingsFan]

Chase is a Michigan man , always been one of my favorite players. I wonder why he wasn't Captain this year? Not that it matters anymore.

[hack]

Not buying that from Don Brown for a second, and as long as he isn't either, that's fine.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think you're right .... hence my comment. He knows how to talk to the media.

There were a couple of posts I read recently about the view of CFB coaches and players for the misdirected need for vague or misleading talk, outright deception and holding back on injury information. Why? The pros don't do it. Practices are open to the media, weekly injury reports and player status are published on the regular. Who runs which plays and deploys what kinds of schemes are, for the most part, common knowledge among all the NFL teams. Pro coaches still manage to fool their opponents on occasion but for the most part, a team plays it's game and executes well, they win. Make mistakes and they lose. Simple. I wish college ball was like that. The secretiveness of it seems silly to me.

[Jeff Buchanan]

For those just checking here, I've looked at all the usual sites and there is nothing worth reporting this morning on the eve of the Peach Bowl. There are meetings and a practice today but as is the usual game week prep for Harbaugh, Fridays don't include padded practice. That was yesterday.

Wolverine Wire is not my favorite web site for Michigan football content. There tends to be interesting headlines that prompt a click but the content is uninformative and less than insightful. Once in a while Isaiah Hole produces a decent product. The link below is to his reports on the Peach Bowl week. One of them - CFAPB: Pictures, Video and Observations form Michigan Football Practice - is worth a look. It's nice to see McCaffrey out there throwing in practice. Also nice photos of some of the players.

One tidbit picked up on. During an interview with Pep Hamilton yesterday, when asked about back-ups for Patterson, mention of Brandon Peters was conspicuously absent. It's pretty clear he was passed by Mcaffrey and probably Milton during the season. It would not surprise me if after the Peach Bowl we'll hear an announcement that he is going to transfer.

https://wolverineswire.com/author/isaiahhole/

[iam416]

Buchanan:

I'm not sure if you've watched these guys before -- I think they used to go by some SEC-something name. They're branching out so they rebranded, I guess. But, anyway, I really enjoy their podcast videos -- https://www.youtube.com/user/RollTide2k3/videos

As I mentioned, they started out as SEC previews, but branched out. They did one for OSU-M and then spent the first 10 minutes of the NW-OSU preview talking about the OSU-M game and what happened -- they spend a lot of time doing autopsies when their model and takes are way off. Anyway, if the game interests me I usually will spend the 15-30 minutes to listen to their take. And it has a massive fancystats element to it coupled with some commonsense.

They both have M beating Florida.

[drok]

The challenge with predicting an M victory tomorrow is that quite a few of the main contributors won't be playing. It's not close to the same team from the regular season. Not sure how much that is true for Florida, and I'm so disengaged with this game that I don't particularly care. I think the biggest loss is Devin Bush. When that defense is humming, he's the main cog that makes it tick.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, love the data. On player absences .......

Bush is a +9 on a scale of -10 to +10 in terms of what he subtracts or adds to Don Brown's defense as the Mike. People talk about his speed side line to side line but his biggest asset is his ability to manage the defense. That is going to be hard to replace. His replacement is Josh Ross - I'd call him a +5 so, there is a drop off but not much. He's got the speed but I'm not sure he can replicate Bush's leadership. In his UFRs, Brian was pretty high on Ross. Devin Gill is behind him at the Mike and he is a significant drop off per UFRs compared to Bush and Ross.

Gary played so little during his career at Michigan it's hard to chalk up much of a loss on defense with him gone. Josh Uche may not be as physically dominating of a player but he's good enough where OC's have to account for him. With Winovich injured, I'm not sure how effective he can be. So, there is that. To me, M has to get better interior DL pressure on Florida's OL - I think they will and video you linked to shows why. Florida's OL is not going to blow a good defensive front off the LOS. You can bet this is going to be a point of emphasis for Don Brown.

On offense, Higdon's loss? Meh. IMO he was inconsistent but good in flashes and those flashes led Harbaugh to overly rely on the run game to stay ahead of the chains and probably keep his QB healthy. That tendency of Harbaugh's probably has a lot to do with M's poor RZ efficiency.

On the game itself .....

I still just don't see JH changing his stripes in this game. I'm almost certain he'll come out conservative, running the ball with the myriad plays he does that with. Throwing on first down, which Patterson did a lot of early in games, doesn't mean there's a schematic change going on. I think if Patterson is successful doing that - i.e., UF's defense doesn't shut those down, you'll see more of it but a run-centric offense will prevail, esp. if M get's a lead. There's no secret here. You stop M's first down plays - pass or run - while holding them to under 3.5 ypc overall and M isn't going to drive the field and burn clock like Harbaugh wants to. OTH, if Harbaugh decides to use Patterson's run/pass skill set more than he has demonstrated he is willing to do, that changes my view so, I'll be watching for that but I doubt it happens. He'd have to get closer to a run/pass distribution of 45/55 to make me think he's changed his stripes. He'll also have to be willing to dial up more RPO and RO plays on standard downs where Patterson actually keeps the ball than JH he has demonstrated he will..... and this has to happen in situations other than 3rd and long.

The thing for me is that I don't think he will. Regardless of what's going on within the game, it appears Harbaugh will try to establish his run-centric game. He appears to want to do that well beyond a time when it is clear he needs to change that approach. With that, even in close games, where M might have a one score lead, for example, he lets opponents stick around too long eschewing driving the stake home. If Dan Mullen finds cracks in Don Brown's D, and I'm certain he will because, you know, my concern is that Harbaugh won't react to it like he didn't v. osu. I think that is the chink in M's armor that will be the root cause of the loss to Florida I've predicted.

[Hannibal]

Taking Florida +7 has to be the easiest money in the history of betting.

[lineygoblue]

I think the first play the Florida offense will run will be a TE or slot delay drag across the middle where Bush used to play. Michigan's first offensive play will be a handoff to Evans over the left side into a 8 man Gator front.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Nah, M's first play will be a check-down by Patterson to a wheel route by Gentry. We'll all think Harbaugh's going to air it out ...... fooled yah.