Michigan 31, Indiana 20.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Kick time sucks ...... it is a weird KO time because FS1.

TCU @ Baylor takes the noon slot on FS1, MSU @ Neb, osu @ Maryland, NfW @ Minny, PSU @ Rutgers are ALL NOON GAMES. Fuck that.

Anyway, I'll be in attendance. It will be a night game for all intent and purpose ..... dark by shortly after 5:15pm. Early weather check says dry and coldish - mid 30s - but it's SE MI. That will change.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If you read mgoboard this morning, You'll see the same silly shit about obliterating IU as there was about obliterating Rutgers ...... which M did not. It's football. Countering that silly shit is more silly shit about IU always playing M tough - never mind the last time IU beat Michigan was in 1987 and has not beaten M in the Big House since 1967. Oh, and this will be the first game v. IU in 2 years where John O'Korn isn't going to be under center. Will M cover the 27.5 points?

Here's IU's S&P+ compared to Rutgers (Overall/Offense/Defense/STs)

81/123
82/126
75/102
33/27

This suggests IU is a good deal better than Rutgers per S&P but still not great. IU is not the Kevin Wilson chaos version of the Hoosiers but instead is the Tom Allen/Mike Debord man ball version with a decent QB in Peyton Ramsey. Ramsey went 16/28/243 (57%) in their win v. Maryland (34/32) at home last weekend. Ramsey is throwing to 3 competent WRs that have been around for a long time. RB Stevie Scott had 19 carries for 103 yards (5.42 ypc) and Ramsey is somewhat of a run threat ala. Trace McSorely. He had 2 QB keepers, one for a 26y TD.

I've watched highlights of a couple of IU games - Debord, surprisingly has added spread concepts to his play-book and runs out of them. There's also the typical Debord power off-tackle run game with the hey, surprise, deep ball. IU looks a lot like M on offense with less talent but Ramsey is decent and throws a nice deep ball. Seems to get decent protection from his OL but took 4 sacks v. Maryland. I've not studied enough of IU's run game to know if they run zone blocking concepts or not. Probably as that goes hand-in-hand with running out of the spread.

IU's big plays came off Rasey's arm though. Maryland did a good job of erasing big IU run plays as that part of the offense racked up a paltry 37% success rate. Ramsey did have two big QB keepers (not zone reads) that pushed IU's team rushing success rate to 50% - same as M's v. Rutgers without Shea running at all. With Shea running v. PSU, between Higdon (50%) and Patterson (60%), M scored a 55% success rate (national average is 42%). There should be no question as to what Patterson's zone read adds to M's offense ...... and it's unlikely we'll see that play at all v. IU. NB: M did run an IZ play where Patterson threatened the zone read outside but instead made a quick toss to Higdon who ran inside for a decent gain despite Ruiz missing the key block on S Hampton.

Maryland had a 49% combined success rate running and passing v. IU's D (50% rushing, 46% passing). That's high and suggests M can both run and pass the ball v. IU's D. With a vanilla rush scheme like M played v. Rutgers (39% success rate) it could be that M will come out the same or a bit worse than that v. Rutgers - not sure if JH will open the tool box a bit in the M run game or not. If the Rutgers game was an indicator, he won't and there will be some gnashing of teeth in frustration over M's seeming inability to run the ball. Just watch the game flow, not the scoreboard. Fans inappropriately expect M to blow out it's opponents. If it happens, fine, if it doesn't it is simply a reflection of how Harbaugh strategizes.

The key in this game is keeping Ramsey's passing game in check. Brown's aggressive man coverage is susceptible to deep throws if the front 7 doesn't get pressure. I'm pretty sure Debord will go deep early to see how that works. There's also the usual short throws to the flats, TE seam routes, slants and the like that Ramsey throws well but M has defended these up till now. I don't think IU will run the ball .... at all. You can bet that IU saw what Rutgers did with the 82y run M busted. I'd say the chances are good it won't happen v. M this time as "seen that, done that", applies. So, it's probably Ramsey's game to win or lose....... against the nations #1 S&P passing D. Good luck.

With M playing a low key, low risk, game control offense, don't expect a flashy score unless IU turns the ball over a ton. I don't think M covers the 27.5 point spread. I think Ramsey will hit a couple of big plays but won't score more than 17, 10 is more likely. M will be methodical, possess the ball like they have this entire season and score somewhere around 35. So, I'll go with 35-10 as the final.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hope the lack of interest in this game by posters here doesn't reflect the football team's attitude re IU.

Keep in mind, Rutgers ..... RUTGERS....... moved the ball against M's defense better than any conference opponent to date. That came on several big plays on the ground which is even more indicting of M's D.

There are more post game breakdowns of M's mistakes on defense by various observers that do these than any previous games and it's fairly obvious why this is so. Lots of mistakes. One has to ask why. Focus? I don't think so. Metellus not playing and in his place and less experienced Brad Hawkins? Maybe a bit. the Gill-Ross rotation at LB? Some. Great play design by Rutgers? Most of it.

M's D got fooled to a great extent by well designed plays that used motion to confuse the Ss. Without the confusion by the Ss, the three big run plays that Rutgers ran v. M don't happen. There are other things that Gill and Winovich did that contributed but the Ss and their confusion in the face of pre-snap motion and post snap skullduggery was the biggest contributor to 193 rush yards v. the #1 Rush D (now, thanks to Rutgers, #2)..... and Blackshear. A very good athlete. Credit the Rutgers coaching staff for taking advantage of Don Brown's relentless aggression with his front 7 and the risk of that approach when that aggression doesn't get to the skill players in the backfield quick enough and limiting the big play requires the Ss to do that. BTW, this is not a new problem just seen v. Rutgers. We haven't seen it that frequently because ....... pressure works. Aggression solves problems. It got had a couple of times v. Rutgers. Other OC's will see this.

So, what does all this mean v. IU? I can't say if a lot of motion is in Mike Debord's wheelhouse. I tend to think not. He's not particularly innovative and IU observers previewing this game don't like him at all as OC. But, geeeeze. As an offensive coach, you'd have to be blind to not try some of the stuff run plays Rutgers ran v. M's D. I think we'll see it and how M reacts to it will be a good indicator of whether or not this is a more permanent type systemic issue on defense or it isn't.

I don't think IU is going to win this game because M's offense is going to score points against a less than good IU D. The talent on IU's defense is just not there to contend with M's offense. I already know that Ramsey is a good QB and he's throwing to good receivers so, there is that. The thing I'll be watching for in this game then is IU's run game and how M's D defends it.

How about v. osu? Do they use a lot of motion? Yes, and we'll know more after the IU and Maryland games.

[UMStan White]

Hate a good memory of UM football. This game feels like UM-Minn game that an undefeated Harbaugh led team lost before the famous "guarantee" game at OSU. I think that the lack of enthusiasm by the fan base may be indicative of the intensity of the team.

[Tom W]

I remember that game, Stan. M didn't play particularly horrible. They were just "uninspired", but we all thought, right up to the last minute, that there was no way that we were losing that game. We kind of saw a similar attitude last week- except it was Rutgers, and how seriously can anybody take them?

Hopefully, that got rid of a lot of apathy and Harbaugh brings out lessons from that experience- although, really they STILL went to Columbus next week, won the game, the conference and went to the Rose Bowl.

The only major differences this year, I guess, is that the last decade of crap means that less is taken for granted and that the added incentive of playing for a higher goal than the B10 championship is on the line.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Thanks for those posts. I was walking through a Walmart or something like it when Minnesota beat M. I was so confident of a win I didn't bother with it. It was not televised as i recall. Radio only.

This feels different. The season feels different. I've expunged some of the BPONE that polluted my enjoyment of M football over the last decade. But there is uncertainty. Now, it's based on the huge amount of technical data and good video reviews available. In the past it was pure feelings-ball. This is a good team in an otherwise shitty B10. In fact, it's probably the best team.... better than osu. That was not the case in the period were comparing. osu was consistently the best. M was a bit behind but The Game always brought inspired football when it involved Bo v. Woody.

Harbaugh v. ufm? urban meyer is no Woody Hayes. ufm gets it but in a different way. I dont respect it.

[froot loops]

Urban is better

[Jeff Buchanan]

Different time. Different game. For me it's about character. Win with character. Win with cruelty. I question urban meyer's character. I never questioned Woody's.

[Hannibal]

I think that they probably got their turd game out of the way last week. It still might not be pretty.

[drok]

UMBig11 at MGoBlog is saying that Hill is out today and Metellus might not play.

[Hannibal]

[WM Wolverine]

Last week was a game of very few possessions, if M went Air Raid like most the Big XII they could win games 55-21.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Brandon Watson and Ambry Thomas played in Hill's place - they were fine. Ramsey doesn't have a great deep ball but I'm almost certain Debord will test M's defense with a few shots early. You do that on the road and over matched. Ramsey will throw in thier direction not Longs playing the opposite CB. Ramsey is a dink and dunk passer and that is their game. Defending this is less about CBs covering and more about Ss and LBs picking up the short stuff. Brown has been pretty good at that in 2018. Note that IU has some very good slot receivers and this will be Debord's running game v. M just like it was Chris Ashe's at Rutgers. Between the 20s, this is hard game to defend. Mismatches abound. IU will be able to move the ball doing this ....... but not much and scoring won't come via this mode.

Not having Metellus play is another matter. Brad Hawkins who filled in for Metellus at the S position played a roll in each of Rutger's big run plays. He seems to be a step or two slower in recognizing and reacting to the play as it develops. Rutgers used a lot of pre-snap motion to force the Ss and LBs into switching coverage then ran a play that M's D would have been better served in the pre-snap alignments. The aggressive play of Gill and Winovich was taken advantage of as well by this tactic. We'll see it used by IU.

Brian at mgo in his preview of IU characterized the outcome as a "slow motion blow-out." I think that's accurate. We've seen Harbaugh execute a game flow strategy playing to Don Brown's defense and doing only what is necessary on offense to control the game. It frustrates us. I'm getting used to it and tend to not over-react to a call I think is overly conservative when the nail could be driven into the lid of the coffin with something more creative.

I've not watched closely any of the CFP contenders games such that I get a feel for how a game flows and whether or not its controlled or not. I just see the outcomes. IDK, it seems only Clemson is interested in scoring style points with gaudy numbers and has the kind of offense to do that. ND, Alabama, Michigan and UGA all seem similar if outcomes are a measure of game strategies. None of those are blowing out opponents on the regular but they all seem to win without struggling.

I have watched osu. Their offense struggles. It is NOT explosive and there are enough weaknesses on defense that ufm can't really count on playing to it like probably Saban and Harbaugh can. He did play to a remarkable punting game last week v. MSU. So, he has that going for him but I get the feeling that this season there is more consternation on the sidelines with ufm and his coaching staff about controlling the game than there has been since his arrival.

[iam416]

ND, Alabama, Michigan and UGA all seem similar if outcomes are a measure of game strategies. None of those are blowing out opponents on the regular but they all seem to win without struggling.

Love you how snuck Alabama in there. FTR, Alabama is outscoring its opponents by an average of 48-12. The closest game they played scorewise was 45-23. But A&M scored late to make that closer. The closest game they actually played was probably 24-0 last week against Mississippi State when Tua was limping about and then out of the game. The rest of their 8 wins have been by 29 or more. So, I'm not sure what in god's motherfucking green earthh you mean when you saay Alanam isn't "blowing out opponents on the regular..."

I'm not sure why OSU is mentioned amongst the teams that are actually good.

He did play to a remarkable punting game last week v. MSU

The OSU-Sparty game followed much the same arc that the M-Sparty game did. Except M's defense was more dominant -- Sparty had no prayer of moving the ball against M, but had a drive, maybe a drive and a half in them against OSU. And, I guess, OSU missed out on their two huge play opportunities -- one drop one pass a little long. But, more or less, the games were remarkably similar.

Ohio State has played like total shit against a lot of teams. And there are a lot good comparisons to illustrate why M is going to win in Columbus by 34. But, the Sparty comparison isn't one of them, IMO. If anything, that game actually gave me a slight, slight sliver of hope.

[Jeff Buchanan]

77 points is a blow put. 40 something isn't..... anymore. Those scores are more reflective of 6 - 7, 6-10 play drives that result in scores. I'm talking about game control. I'd have to check but I dont thnk Alabama, UGA, are up there on the tempo metric. Clemson probably is. Dabo likes the quick score offense. The rest? No.

My point about the MSU game is that ufm doesn't have the capability to control a game like the others do. Certainly he had a punting game that did allow that and he played off it. Not sure that continues. Not saying the MSU/osu game is an example predicting an M win. You're right, there are others that better. PSU is one.