Michigan 42, PSU 7.

[WM Wolverine]

They'll be the best team we've played other than ND. They have some holes and I think we matchup pretty well..

Patterson needs to hit his open receivers which he's struggled a bit recently. Defense will need to limit big plays, McSorley is better than his receivers allow him to be. They drop a ton of passes they should be catching.

[drok]

Simpler to say than to do, but if they limit McSorley, they will route these guys.

[WM Wolverine]

He can play well but if his receivers drop big plays, they aren't going to win.

[drok]

Typically when a Don Brown defense only has to focus on a specific player or aspect, it usually is quite deadly. I feel uncomfortably confident about this game.

[Hannibal]

Penn State has been really mistake prone. It always worries me when we play a team that is better than their scores indicate because they do shit like drop passes and punts. Their special teams the past two weeks have been a comedy show.

[Jeff Buchanan]

As Saturday approaches, I'll have to admit when I read Hannibal's take on his own BPONE situation (it's going to take more than one game), some doubt's about the outcome of the PSU game rightfully crept back in.

The MSU game was a shot in the arm. Pegged the needle for a bit but I've backed off some because there are ceilings on this M team - right now, they're centered around the offense. I don't like the way M comes out of the gate and if McSorely comes up big on a couple early PSU possessions, I don't like the potential for risk taking by Patterson and the potential for turnovers that presents.

CFP ready teams don't let those sorts of things happen and if they do, contenders will answer quickly to stunt an opponent's momentum. I've really not seen that from this team. The ND game was true to form for a non-contender. The NfW game, same, although the team scratched out a road win. Wisky? Clearly the Badgers are not good at football nor is Hornibrook, as thought, the best QB in the BIG this season. Not sure that butt kicking was of real value in assessing whether or not M is a CFP contender. The MSU game had some of that weird shit happens to teams that can't rock an opponent until it didn't but there were moments.

There will be plenty of opportunities for M to come out of the gate and score on their first possession, keep scoring and rock PSU early, put the boot on PSU's throat and win convincingly ...... like a contender should. Unfortunately, we all know that this team has demonstrated some poor play on offense.The defense will do it's part. The offense HAS to do their's and play a bit beyond expectations.

[Rocky Bleier]

Thinking back on the MSU game, I have to ask: 1) Will Harbaugh be so conservative on offense that he misses early opportunities for points? 2) Is Patterson so concerned about interceptions that he will not take shots downfield when they present themselves? The MSU game was still very much in jeopardy until Patterson hit DPJ with a long TD pass. I hope JH isn't going to rely so much on Don Brown's defense that he doesn't play to win.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'll comment on those things, Rocky .......

I think the ND and NW games demonstrated Harbaugh has a script he follows. This isn't your first possession set of plays kind of script. It is flow of the game script, a game theory or strategy sort of thing. Both of these games had M trailing on the road. The opponent scored early but that did not alter the script I'm talking about. Following the strategic script, the time ran out v. ND but not NW. When an opponent comes out early firing and succeeds like both ND and NW did, I think he throttles the offense purposely to mitigate the potential for error. This may be the kind of risk management stuff Hack names as a Harbaugh shortcoming. I can see that but I can also see why he does it - Patterson.

Strategically, I think Harbaugh plans for M to come out and drive the ball early but not in a quick strike fashion...... at least we haven't seen that. We might against PSU. As the game shortens and the impact of an error increases, risk is managed as a function of the performance of the opponent's offense and defense relative to M's O and D.

Let's take a situation where M was behind like they were v. ND. I thought that as the score differential narrowed, i.e., M's D was holding ND's O and M's O was moving the ball, risk taking increased. In the 3rd, M ran 17 plays on 4 possessions. 13 of them were pass plays, one intercepted. In the 4th, M, got a field goal to close the score to 17-24. During that time, M ran 25 plays on 3 possessions; 9 runs, 16 passes one of the plays was a successful FG, another was Patterson's sack/fumble that essentially ended the game with M driving at the ND 45. Almost but not quite a success of Harbaugh's strategy.

V. NW with 5:08 left in the third, M drove on 11 plays to the NW 6. The drive started at M's 38. Until M was outside the M 45, Higdon ran the ball. On third and 6 at the NW 47, Patterson predictably threw the ball for 11 yards and a 1st at the NW 36. From this point, risk taking increased and Patterson threw the ball 3X, Higdon ran 1X (for a loss). The drive ended on a 3rd and 4 toss to DPJ that fell incomplete. Nordin kicked a FG.

In the 4th with NW leading 17-13, M and NW traded punts on several possessions until M started their game winning drive at 10:05. I remember thinking that at this point, it just felt like M should be up 30 to 13. It felt like total control but with points left on the filed. Weird. But this drive was a classic Harbaughffense drive. Having run the ball successfully in the 2nd half and having throttled NW offense, M opened the drive on 1st and 10 from the M 33 with a 9 yard pass to Jarod Wangler. Higdon got the first down on the next play. He got one yard on the next then, on 2nd and 9, Harbaugh dialed up a seam route to Gentry for 13 yards. The next four plays were runs (Patterson on three of them) and that took the ball to the NW 28. Then, off schedule, Patterson hits Gentry for 22 yards to the NU 6, Higdon on 2 runs took it in from there to go up 20-17.

In both these games, you can see the game strategy that Harbuagh seems to prefer. Score on the first possession and put the opponent behind if possible then manage the play calling based on the game flow. Low risk runs with plenty of variance, including the RO, would predominate if the flow favors M (it didn't v. ND or NW. It did v. Wisky); if not the play selection becomes riskier and will incorporate more throws for Patterson.

Therefore, I don't think you can call his strategy conservative. Rather it's based on the game flow and whether it favors M or not. It's going to be conservative in appearance to us if M is leading and the flow favors M; it will appear less conservative if not. I also think that in a run centric Harbaughffense as it is, control of the game is more an indicator of how things are going than the points on the scoreboard. I get nervous with this his approach but it is classic Harbaugh. With Don Brown's D its probably a good one as much as we would like to see blow-outs and utter domination. This approach was seen v. MSU and that game played out about like I think Harbaugh thought it would. The Wisconsin beat-down was probably unexpected and I think Harbaugh, after it was clear the Badgers couldn't run the ball, Hornibrook couldn't handle pressure at all and the D quit.... tired of getting the shit beat out of them with M's run game........opened the play-book a bit and perhaps unnecessarily but it was fun to watch and probably good for the player's confidence.

So, look for game flow v. PSU and adjust your expectations accordingly. It might be close on the scoreboard but be attentive to the degree of control M is achieving in game and on both sides of the ball.

[drok]

Jeff, that post was too short. Can you elaborate?

[Jeff Buchanan]

PSU opens as an 11.5 dog. Reading that this is about the right line to get the same amount of wagers on both sides and, as I understand it, that's the goal for the books.

Based on what I've said about the celing on M's offense, I'd prefer something like 7.5 but boy was I wrong on Wisconsin. I don't think McSorely is going to be 100%. He did go back into the game but that was not a pretty knee injury from the video of it. These things swell up after a couple of hours, esp. if you continue to play on a sprain like that probably is. He's their offense right now. If he's limited in his runs either physically or because Franklin limits his exposure to hits, that is going to hurt them big time.

[froot loops]

I imagine it will get bet down a little, I think Michigan is a quasi public team in the books eyes.

PSU couldn't do much against MSU in Happy Valley, I doubt they do anything in that viper pit. They are paper Lions, the one thing working against Michigan is they are the prohibitive favorite in the Big Tem, meaning they'll get everyone's best game.

[iam416]

[Tslisher]

I'll comment on those things, Rocky .......

I think the ND and NW games demonstrated Harbaugh has a script he follows. This isn't your first possession set of plays kind of script. It is flow of the game script, a game theory or strategy sort of thing. Both of these games had M trailing on the road. The opponent scored early but that did not alter the script I'm talking about. Following the strategic script, the time ran out v. ND but not NW. When an opponent comes out early firing and succeeds like both ND and NW did, I think he throttles the offense purposely to mitigate the potential for error. This may be the kind of risk management stuff Hack names as a Harbaugh shortcoming. I can see that but I can also see why he does it - Patterson.
.

[WingsFan]

the prohibitive favorite in the Big Tem, meaning they'll get everyone's best game.

Where have you been living in a cave? Michigan ALWAYS gets everyone's best game :-)

[Rocky Bleier]

Holy frijole! Jeff , you do spend a hell of a lot of time analyzing Michigan football. I look forward to having as much time on my hands some day... :-)