Michigan 38, Wisconsin 13.

[drok]

Looks like I will be tailgating in AA Saturday. Bringing the family along. Anyone else going to be at Doug's tailgate?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Sean will be. I had to bail as I have an event on Saturday I have to attend in FL.

[drok]

That's too bad. I think this will be the only time I make it down this year. Looking forward to seeing Sean though.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Seth of Mgo does these Fe-Fi-Fo-Film things. He's done one now for Wisconsin's offense. I think his job in these articles is to lessen optimism. He's two in a row now. He told of Canada's scary scheme at Maryland and all those little speed backs who would terrorize M's D while Canada would manage to confuse M's defenders into oblivion. He's now doing the same with Wisconsin's OL, Jonathan Taylor running behind it and Alex Hornibrook - "the best QB in the BT, maybe the nation, behind the best pass-pro in the BT, maybe the nation" - throwing undefendible darts into tiny windows and TDs.

When he was challenged on this take, he said, Brian told him to not be so hard on M's opponents ........ pendulum, Seth!

Anyway, yeah, the Badger OL is good because they have a conveyor belt system to restock it year after year and for literally decades with quality beef that comes up in the same system year after year and they don't even see the field until their late late Sophomore seasons or more likely early Junior.

It's not impenetrable. The meme has been that this is the worst time for M to have to play Wisconsin given the depth issues to start the season and current injuries to the DL. Dwumfor is out. Next man up. I suspect Mone is the better choice to line up v. the Badger OL. It is told that Kemp is fine and that Solomon is ready - whether he plays or not is not clear. Gary is going to play and obviously Winovich. BPONE takes us to the memory of Wisconsin running 26 straight times and scoring 5 TDs that way against M's defense - you can't really call it that - during the very short Rodriguez era. Uhhhh, that's not going to happen. The DL will be fine.

Seth is also quick to point out the Don Brown's real expertise is in defending the spread or he suggests, he'll develop and teach better schemes v. teams like osu than he will v. Wisconsin. Bull shit. Players do what they do and they have said that. They aren't worried about big-bad Bucky Badger, why should Seth be worried? Pleasing Brian?

There's nothing I read in that Film study and Seth commentary that changes how I see this game going. The only wild card for me is how Harbaugh manages M's passing game and score differential in the context of his run-centric schemes on offense? I can't imagine a game plan that doesn't take advantage of weaknesses in the Wisconsin defense that has established itself in it's games so far. There has been no pass rush to speak of, LBs are not that speedy and Laudermilk - an offensive lineman body type (320, 6'7") masquerading as a DE - who was part of that meager pass rush is out for this game.

This should not be a close game all things considered but if Harbaugh because he only wants to pound it - or the players because they get down or don't execute - make this game a close one into the 4th, I can almost guarantee you that Hornibrook will steal the game late.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-f...n-offense-2018

[Detroit Dan]

The only wild card for me is how Harbaugh manages M's passing game and score differential in the context of his run-centric schemes on offense?

I've been thinking about this offensive scheme meme that Hannibal raised and Buchanan picked up, and I've concluded it's bogus. The problem with the offense for the past 1 or 2 years has not been that we don't pass enough, but rather that our passing game has been lousy. Speight couldn't hit passes against Iowa, Ohio State, and Florida State, so we lost those those games at the end of 2016. In 2017, no amount of throwing helped as we lost 5 games. When we did try to throw, we frequently got sacked and/or missed on anything deep.

As a younger man, I did feel that Schembechler was ineffective in big games because he refused to throw more. This carried on to some extent under Moeller and Carr. So I understand the tendency to think this is the problem with Harbaugh. But our passing game was really better with Schembechler, Moeller, and Carr, so we should have thrown more back then. Not so much with Speight, O'Korn, Peters, and the discombobulated OL of 2017.

Not only are we scoring many more points this year (as compared to last), but the QB is getting all the receivers involved. We're completing deep passes better than any other B1G teams, and passes to the tight ends are punishing teams who overplay the run.

ALL HAIL HARBAUGH!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

So, I guess you're fine then with nearly 70% running plays on standard downs and rushing and red-zone stats like these:

Opportunity Rate*:

42.2%, #112

Red Zone Success:

21-30 yard line success rate: 38%, #90

11-20 yard line success rate: 28%, #113

*This is the percentage of carries in which the offensive line "does its job" and produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner. (Generally speaking, the first five yards are considered the line's responsibility, the next five are split evenly between the runner and the line, and anything over 10 yards is all on the runner.)

[AlabamAlum]

Not sure the first five are all line. The RB has to have incredible vision and see the hole develop and hit it. And at full speed, up close to the line, everything is a blur. Depending on DL stunts, where the hole will be is not always where you thought it would be when the play was drawn up. A runner needs to react and adjust.

[WingsFan]

Not much to complain about lately. Forecast looks dry and cool, Ill be @ the 50 yard line tomorrow night with my fake binoculars fill with RUM (curiosity of Jerry F Bouldin).

Harbaugh is 0-5 when Game Day covers Michigan

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, that's a reflection of the level of competition though, not Game Day being in Ann Arbor. Have fun at the game. I miss Jerry.

There's a rumor based on a obscure tweet showing an emoji with hands praying from Tarik Black's Twitter account (the Tweet since removed) that he is going to play tonight. That was also announced by the broadcast crew at the Tulsa game Friday night. So, it has some legs.

The recovery was predicted to be 6-8w. This will be 7 weeks and that time for recovery is consistent with what Harbaugh has said - the very little he has said about it. If he dresses, and if he lines up for a play, keep in mind this is his first game in over a year.

There's also speculation that Dwumfor will dress. I was watching one of the videos in the Maryland UFR defense. It was the play right before he left the gaem on a cart. It's at the very end of the video and it's too bad it cuts before you see him get up. But, he is chasing a play to the sideline, is involved in the tackle and goes to his knees after the play with his head down. It looks like this is the play he was injured on. He lined up for the next play and there is video of that. He gets zero push and is forced back by Maryland's C. All game long he had been clubbing this guy so, he was hurting and then took himself out of the game and at that point, it looked like a non-contact injury. It probably wasn't. This is a 325lb dude with an ankle sprain. It hurts like shit to put weight on it. Cart......whirlpool ....... physical therapy ....... practice ...... play.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a good read. Just got to it this morning as was traveling yesterday. Anyway, Seth points out, the Wisconsin offense v. the M defense is strength on strength. The M offense v. the Wisconsin defense is maybe good v. not so good. The youth and injuries Wisconsin is dealing with are well explained in the article and I'd be looking for some scheme and play variability to take advantage of these. For example, the back end, is both inexperienced and injury ridden. The deep ball should be in play - not necessarily way more than we see in conceptually in Harbaughffense now but, it's going to be there because the Badger pass-rush is non-existent - use it. Iowa also used their FB effectively to limit the effectiveness of Wisconsin's best LB who is very good (per Seth, "should be in the NFL this season.") Video of him slicing through gaps in Iowa's OL to disrupt the back field and make tackles is impressive.

The run game should be effective if MLB Anderson can be neutralized in various that don't just involve having Wilson smack him. His position is designed to anticipate the play and react accordingly. He's quick so, he can be mislead with motion and first steps. Clearly, Wisconsin plays one-hi Ss which brings a S into the box to blitz on passing downs and tends to overcome the absent DE pressure. On run plays it's an extra hat v. inside zone or power. That guy is also a good way to at least limit jet sweeps and OZ again in the absence of strong DE play.

The bottom line is that if M can't move the chains consistently on this defense, run long drives keeping Hornibrook and Taylor off the field, either Chryst has come up with some way to miraculously cover up it's weaknesses or the O is not anywhere near as good as it appears to be to us.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-f...n-defense-2018

[Hannibal]

The tea leaves on Dwumfor have looked pretty favorable since Sunday. I don't know if he'll play today or if he'll be at 100% but if he is at 80% I hope that we can get him some snaps. We're really going to need DT depth today.

One of Wisky's starters will be missing for the first half in their already shaky secondary. I hope that Harbaugh takes the ball if he wins the toss and airs it out in the first half. Especially if Black can get out there (even as just a decoy).

[Detroit Dan]

Gary out.

[Detroit Dan]

Mone and Kemp start at DTs

[Detroit Dan]

Wisconsin doing what Jeff says we do. Run, run, run

[Detroit Dan]

Gil starting. Paye looks good. 3 stars forever!