Maryland @ Michigan, Saturday, October 6th, Noon EDT, ABC National/espn3 video

[WingsFan]

AA you know this started with your team affected directly, you should remember this since your older than me.


You would of had an outright NC ----- Not A Shared NC.



Charles White's "Phantom Touchdown"

USC had driven deep into Michigan territory. At the three-yard line in a dive over the middle towards the goal-line, Charles White fumbled the ball before he entered the end-zone.^[6][7] The officials for this game were made up of a Pac-10/Big Ten crew. Upon White's fumble, the umpire (a Pac-10 official) immediately and correctly marked the ball around the one-yard line and signaled that there had been a change of possession. Then the line judge, a Big Ten official, came running in raising his hands signaling that White had scored a touchdown.^[2][4]



This touchdown has become known as White's "Phantom Touchdown" as he was awarded the score after first fumbling, and entered the end-zone without the ball.^[5]


This has been confirmed by White himself.

[AlabamAlum]

I didn't see the game. I was at the Sugar Bowl.

[Detroit Dan]

We are the victim of the worst holding call in the history of football, and this is the reaction from AA and Talent? This lack of empathy is an indictment of the Crimson Tide and Buckeye programs, and will surely have repercussions which go far beyond the gridiron. There is a special place in hell...

[AlabamAlum]

Hahahaha. Gotta be a parody account. Well done.

[WingsFan]

[Detroit Dan]

Hahahaha. Gotta be a parody account. Well done.

Spot on! The real Detroit Dan is such a shameless homer that there is a waiting line a mile long to make fun of him.

[iam416]

I reiterate, I like Dan. Sure, his unbreakable optimism is enough to make you want to shoot crashcourse in the face with a Civil War-era cannon from five feet, but his persona is about the best-natured of any on-line CFB asswipe I've ever run across. He's the anti-Wizard. And, of course, his ruthless sassdown of AlabamAlum in the offseason was a thing of beauty.

[AlabamAlum]

Hahahaha

[Rocky Bleier]

Maryland running back McFarland can fly. He's gonna get some yards Saturday. I'm afraid that the Northwestern scare hasn't woken our boys up. Maryland has some fast athletes.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Bush.

Hudson.

Winovich.

Just for starters.

M will be fine. Not losing in Ann Arbor.

[WM Wolverine]

Maryland is ime better than NW, still don't expect a close game.

[Jeff Buchanan]

By FEI, Maryland is better than NfW (54 v. 68) but they are so infinitely different, it's hard to compare them. NW is pretty one dimensional although their scheme wouldn't predict that; There run game wasn't spectacular to begin with but losing Larkin was a killer. Thorsen is good but not as good when there is no run threat but he still managed to hurt M with slants and such ..... for a while.

The real difference between NW and Maryland is their defenses, NW being better per FEI (37) than Maryland (50). M will be more efficient on offense v. Maryland than they were v. NW. Even talent get's it right once or twice and this is one of them:

.

38-6 and an easy cover? I don't think so. I used this ranking system that predicts win margins last season in AA's pick contests. It didn't work particularly well but the math behind it is pretty substantial. It predicts M will win v. an average opponent (and that can be a problem) by 13.5 points. Maryland is probably an average opponent so fine. What the model also does is use regression analysis to incorporate the previous season. Less and less weight is assigned to this data point as the season progresses. That it's still a farily large factor only 5 games in would tend to underestimate M's margin of victory. So, talent might be right at 17.

https://thepowerrank.com/college-foo...sion-rankings/

Next comes applying the eyeball test and match-ups. Haven't looked that closely at Maryland yet but you can bet they will attack what most observers have noted and confirmed by DB this week is M's combined schematic and talent based weakness: covering slants. I would suppose Maryland's spready offense is all about that play. I'll have to find some video and will. A credible run threat, something NW didn't have, IMO, doesn't contribute much to the short or slant game. What it does contribute to is the RO and PA. Note that Thorsen got hammered when Fitzgerald dialed up a PA on a deep throw. Also note Maryland QB Kasim Hill's stats:

Maryland	Big Ten	FR	QB	3	18	21	85.7	230	11.0	12.9	2	0	209.1
Maryland	Big Ten	FR	QB	4	42	76	55.3	516	6.8	7.0	3	1	122.7
Maryland					60	97	61.9	746	7.7	8.3	5	1	141.4

I take from this, Hill doesn't pass that much and when he does he's not that great. It's clear he goes short most of the time and in 2018 he's not getting a lot of completions. Will he try the deep throw? I suspect that will be in Maryland's tool box. Hill and Long have gotten a little grabby, drawing some legit PI's some not so legit and have shown they can be leveraged or flat out beaten in 2018. That didn't happen in 2017 but ..... Mo Hurst. Michael Dwumfor is not Mo Hurst yet when it comes to being disruptive in the opponent's back field in a way that is disruptive to the passing game. Uche and Jordan Glasgow in the absence of Gary have been great young pass rushers. Roll hill out then? Forget that - Bush, Hudson and Winovich. I think Gary will be used sparingly and the rest of the DL seems to be fine, maybe not as terrorizing, but still fine without him.

For now, I'll go with something like 34-17 potentially a cover but not an easy one.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've seen some video of the Maryland Offense. Its a hand-full but I tend to agree that M''s speed at the DE and LB/Viper positions is going to hurt the Terps as long as gap discipline is maintained and Hill and his two scatty RBs are contained and thier gains are held down to less that big plays or conversions on crucial downs. So far, M has been good at that v. spready teams they've faced ..... and that's at least 2/4, maybe 3/4 if you consider NW to be a spread team.

I'm not sure what the presence of rain, if it materializes during the game, means for Maryland. You either hold on to a wet ball or your don't. M hits hard so that could be a benefit to M with a wet ball but it works both ways.

M needs to get creative on offense but I don't think they will even if they are digging out of a hole or the game is close. WX will be a factor for Harbaugh's play calling. Maryland's biggest weakness on defense is the WLB. I'd try to get match-ups with Higdon or Nico Collins in the flat on his side. I'll be watching for that.

I'm expecting a bit of a frustrating slog. Given the weather, I'm going to go with 27/10 or something close to that. I don't think Maryland is going to score a lot unless I am totally wrong about Brown's ability to have his players ready for whatever crazy shit Matt Canada draws up after the bye and there will be plenty of it. If it works, this game is going to be uncomfortably close

[Jeff Buchanan]

Pretty much all the game previews are in print. I don't think any credible previewer thinks this is going to be a three score win for M. That's based on the mixed data that one would think would define what Harbaughffense is. The data doesn't do a very good job of doing that because it's been all over the place. When you're trying not to be a homer it's tough to have a lot of confidence that (1) Maryland's Matt Cavanaugh won't come up with crazy shit that get's some quick scores, putting M in an early hole, off a confused M defense and (2) Harbaugh won't turtle for WX or any multitude of reasons he does that.

After both NW and ND got out to big leads, my impression was that Harbaugh took the position that we have a game plan, it's to run the ball and take few risks doing that. Let's stick to it. That approach produced a loss v. ND and wobbly win v. NW. Neb? That was weird ..... once it appeared it would be easy work, they didn't stop scoring until midway through the 3rd and then with the second team offense out there, still kept scoring with McCaffrey at QB. It's like when it's working, do neat shit, blow the opponent's doors off. When it's not ..... oooh, don't try anything new here. We might hurt ourselves. Just keep running into a 9 man front with a S sneaking up and don't try anything to punish that. Pisses me off.

I think that's a trend. I hate it and the game v. NW showed that kind of outlook or approach to the game in spades. I'll feel way better if I'm not sitting on the edge of my seat half way through the 2nd quarter. I have a feeling I will be.

[Tslisher]

Jeff - I don't think this is it at all. No I don't expect M to blow Maryland's doors off. Maryland has a competent D-fense that will limit our opportunities and cause this game to be a bit closer than we are comfortable. But from what I've seen, M is slow playing its playbook, getting plays in with variants a week at a time. Yes, they like to run first (although their problem against Maryland was they passed first). But they also like to wear down lesser opponents. I think that's more what we are seeing here.

I'd predict a comfortable M win, but it will be uncomfortably close at the half:

Halftime score: M 14 - Maryland 13 (They have a good field goal kicker)

Ending Score: M 31 - Maryland 16