Michigan 20, Northwestern, 17

[Jeff Buchanan]

Re my comment on Harbaugh and his offense above.......Harbaughffense seems to be built around the concept of running the ball on first down rather than using a rounded passing game to move the chains more reliably and consistently. I think we'll see at least a 70/30 run/pass split on first downs on the UFR. It seems that if the 1st down run gets stuffed, play calling felt like less than optimal from there. It's a first down by the run on three tries or punt it mentality that is frustrating. There is some, but not enough of a passing threat - that rounded pass/run offense - and Patterson and the receivers seems completely capable of presenting it.

It also seems that Harbaugh played this particular game to set up some very good counters. One for a TD by Higdon and one for a planned keeper of the RO that called back on the phantom Higdon hold. In other words, it appeared to me that he was completely satisfied with playing a close game, relying on the defense and hoping for the big plays, on O or D, to work for M and not for Northwestern.

I don't like that and I said so pre-game voicing my concern for JH playing a close game by choice. This shit of winning the toss and electing to receive and then 4-5X going three and out shows some aggression I guess but it needs to work better than it is in that when that approach is foiled, it gives the opponent life.

[WM Wolverine]

42 rushes, 24 passes despite playing from behind all game. A few of sheas rushes were scrambles.

[drok]

Somebody on mgoblog board charted first down plays. 63% split run/pass with runs getting average of over 6 yards/play and median of 4 yards. So, not sure that the main issue is run/pass mix on first down.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I thought that once some numbers started flying around that the frustration with what appeared to be questionable first down run calls were being called for a reason that without a game/call sheet in hand, even observant fans in the stands aren't going to pick that up.

I think the Nebraska numbers were something like 60/40 run pass too but in that game M was getting chunk plays galore, usually on 1st downs. Funny though, the yardage on runs averaged 6.3 as well.

There's no question that NW's front 7 is good (S&P+, #31 after game 5). They returned most of their starters from 2017 where they were ranked #9 nationally in rush defense. They clearly had some problems early in this season but they were more than prepared for M after their bye and in JH's post game presser he tipped his hat to the NW D being well prepared and executing well.

One thing is for sure, it is very easy to lose sight of the bigger picture in a game and let a small segment of plays overwhelm your perception of the game overall.

[Hannibal]

Taking the ball was the smart thing to do since Khaleke Hudson was out for the first half.

[Rocky Bleier]

Is it possible that Harbaugh stubbornly believes he only needs a small portion of the playbook to beat certain teams, and, no matter the circumstances, will not put anything else on tape to be studied? There must be a lot more to the playbook than the stuff we've seen so far. Have they run a screen-pass at all this season?

[Jeff Buchanan]

........There must be a lot more to the playbook than the stuff we've seen so far. Have they run a screen-pass at all this season?

I think there is more stuff in the playbook and yes, I can recall at least two screens - both blown up. I'm thinking this "stuff" is being practiced but it is (1) being saved by diabolical Harbaugh for the right team/defense/time or (2) smart Harbaugh knows the offense can't execute these plays well enough yet.

[drok]

I think #2 is more likely.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I thought the play where Higdon ran through the A gap to the right of Ruiz for a TD was neatly set up with four receivers lining up wide and before the snap the TE motioned to the back side of the play then stunted to the play side.

In the previous play that started with that same formation and motion, Patterson threw the ball and it was completed to one of those three WRs on an out route set up by a pic to the inside.

Harbaugh has some mojo when it comes to constraints and counters that is mostly unappreciated. At the same time, I don't disagree with you, Drok, it's mostly due to #2.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Here's video highlights of the NW win. Granted it's lite on the runs that are stoned but you can see the offensive rhythm in the 3rd and 4th quarters that involved a lot more good play calling than bad. You'll also see Patterson make some incredible throws as well as two good RO plays where he keeps one of which was called back on the phantom holding call against Higdon. if you can see an M player holding anywhere on that play, let me know. It cost M a 28 yard gain and +10 for the penalty - a 38 yard potentially game changing call. That call is unexplainable. If it's a make-up call, and these do happen, it was a terrible one where to everyone there and now on replay video the hold never happened. Inside Michigan Football follows on the same link. Also worth a look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=87&v=ko5Rq1GXK70

[Detroit Dan]

Michigan dominated the game after the first quarter. Thoroughly dominated. We dominated to the extent that I would normally expect the losing team to be more desperate and commit more penalties. But the vast majority of the penalties were on Michigan, and at least one was a huge call at a critical moment, and was unquestionably bullshit.

Still, you'll have "people" saying Michigan was lucky and undisciplined and similar rubbish. Just like with the targeting calls, which were arbitrary at best.

Let's have some consistency -- if the calls were bad calls, then M is not undisciplined. Do you expect M not to be aggressive, to stop blocking, because occasionally the get a penalty for gently nudging an opponent, as on that last kick-off return. Fortunately, we don't need to blame the referees because we won anyway, in spite of the clear nonsense.

[Rocky Bleier]

The officials - there is only one referee - were bad, but so too was the Michigan ground attack. In fact, I hesitate to call it an attack. It was reminiscent of infantry rushing into entrenched machine gun nests at The Battle of the Somme. Shea Patterson was inaccurate for much of the game as well. I have grown tired of Don Brown's hyped defense getting gashed in the first half of games. They are still vulnerable to quick slants and on the edges. Lavert Hill has been getting beaten all season. I keep hearing people say that the defense shut down Sparty in the second half last year, but that was because MSU stopped trying to score. They knew John O'Korn couldn't beat them. Lots to fix on this team. Don't let the Nebraska game fool you.

[hack]

Lots to fix. Wondering WTF with Lavert Hill this year. Don Brown can fix it for the second half, but it'd be nice not to have to play out of holes. I'm not married to the concept of Don Brown.

Haven't seen the full game, but the 22-minute highlight package suggests that, again, the OL was at least not worse than mediocre. That's great.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On Lavert Hill getting beat ........ I' don't think I have a feel yet for where and how bad. Available video so far rarely shows the initial seconds of a receiver/coverage play after the QB has the ball. If there is a replay, maybe and I've not looked closely enough at those to say definitively he's getting beat. Brian's UFR Offense will tell the story on that take I suspect.

Where M has a "problem" according to all the hot-takes out there are slants and to a lesser extent, bubble screens/short range pic plays. You can actually see these on film because that's where the camera cones down to. Well, every team has those against well executed ones and those are NW's bread and butter plays. My hot take is yes, these passes were completed by NW and have been completed by M's other opponents but there was little YAC. Still second and 3 is very doable and that has been the opponent's offensive strategy against M's D.

Rarely do these plays work as the field shortens, especially inside the 10. There isn't sufficient space to effectively execute these. So, Brown probably isn't too worried about these as long as the 7 yard gain does't turn into 40. M is a respectable 34th in 3rd down conversions (Wisky 69th, MSU, 51st, PSU, 42nd) and 12th in scoring D (Wisky 14th, osu 23rd, MSU, 52nd, PSU 35th).

Those numbers don't lie so, the concept of Don Brown seems to be doing OK.

[Rocky Bleier]

Those numbers don't lie so, the concept of Don Brown seems to be doing OK.

Stats are misleading. I don't care how they fare versus Rutgers, Western Michigan, and Nebraska. The test is how they play against the likes of Notre Dame, OSU, PSU & MSU. They get gashed against those teams. Don Brown would do better with a little more read & react against teams with equal or superior talent.