Michigan 20, Northwestern, 17

[AlabamAlum]

The M-NW game will not be close.

[Jeff Buchanan]

mgo has a Neck Sharpies piece that explains why M's run offense feasted. In short, Harbaugh on offense out-X'ed and O'ed Frost on defense - assuming Frost was involved and I'm pretty sure he would have been in game week planning, maybe not in game. That would have fallen on Frost's DC, Erik Chinander who followed Frost from UCF. Chinander did adjust his defense to what JH was doing on offense but that was after M was up 2 TDs and players appeared to get discouraged. You'll have to read Neck Sharpies to see why the defense was fooled and how they adjusted.

The long of it is that Down-G has been identified as M's bread and butter run play. I can't do diagrams here so you'll have to try to follow me (or read the link below):

https://mgoblog.com/content/neck-sha...ere-you-keying

Down G pulls the frontside guard to kick the edge, and blocks down on the rest of the frontside defenders like a power play. But it also plays zone on the backside of the play. It is a great counter because it's confusing the LBs who are looking at the backside guard's movement - does he pull or does he gap block. In Down G, the linebacker is going to read zone when the guard pulls to the play-side and there's a power gap about to happen there. Step to that gap is the LB's read and the correct step.

By the time the LB reacts it might be too late: the fullback could be through the line to pick him off, the running back could already be beyond him, or one of the other blocks on the frontside might have created a wall that this unblocked guy can't get around. This is exactly what happened on both of Higdon's runs. Side note: I had previously called these 2 big run plays a Veer. I still think it's a Veer in general but the nitty-gritty of the blocking scheme on this particular play is what's important here not what the play is called - Down G or Veer.

There's great diagrams and video to understand how this play unfolded and why Nebraska was completely fooled twice, then adjusted and Harbaugh moved on in his play-book. Another thing that is key in this explanation of the Down-G play is that M has already shown at least three variations of it including an RPO play where Patterson pulls it at the mesh and throws it to the TE. That's a lot for a defense, particularly the LBs, to cope with so, fuck-off Mork.

Now to NW's LBs and what the impact of better LB play for M might mean. First, NfW will have seen this skullduggery from JH on film and will be ready for it. So, unless Jim has other tricks up his sleeve, and make no mistake, he will have especially for Fitzgerald - a LB himself, Higdon isn't going to get big runs off the Down-G straight up or off the Down-G with tricks in it like those used to fool Neb's LB keys. It is much less likely that no matter what tweeks are made to this bread and butter play M runs, that NfW's LBs are NOT going to be fooled by them. This is something Fitzpatrick does very well in preparing his players...... and after a bye week no less.

Bottom line, M isn't going to run all over NfW like they have v. WMU and Nebraska. That's why I kept M's scoring to the low 30s. M will have to get there with Patterson's arm and I think this is where the skullduggery will take place. I'd like to see Grant Perry get more run. I'd like to see Evans or Christian Turner in space after throws to the spaces blitzing LBs are vacating. I still don't think M has had to show it's short passing game that punishes cheating or blitzing LBs and Ss. That's because M has been able to run despite this typical thing M's opponents do to priority stop their run game - stack the box, blitzball the shit out of every play M lines up for. I think they will v. Northwestern or at least I hope they will instead of changing this into a low-scoring game of trench warfare. That advantages the Kittys and I will be pissed off if Harbaugh plays it safe to win something like 17-14 with all of us sitting on the edge of our seats worrying about some fluky play, some dumb-ass call by the refs or a random turnover by M that allows Northwester to win a game that they should have no chance in ....... if Harbaugh unleashes his weapons.

Wait ...... he may not have to and that will be determined in the first or second offensive series that will reveal how NW is reacting to the plays JH calls in those two possessions. If M is getting big chunk plays off Higdon and Mason is plowing ahead, dragging all sorts of angry defenders with him while he runs 2-3 yards on 3rd or 4th and 2, you won't see Patterson passing much at all ..... outside the dong-punching deep balls to DPJ for TDs or close to it that will tear the heart out of Pat Fitzgerald. Watch for his face instead of Frost's doing this on the sidelines:

[WingsFan]

This game should not be close. Don Brown will be blitzing almost every down - MtM the WR's for NW have thick ankles, the O-line is not good at all, their best player had to retire from football. Their will be 20,000 Michigan fans there. Pat Fitzgerald was 0-4 against Brady Hoke.

[Jeff Buchanan]

2000, at NfW, M loses on a weird fumble by A-Train and that "game should not (have been) close" and really wasn't until, you know, should have turns out to be would have.

2004, #6 osu at unranked NfW and that "game should not (have been) close" and really wasn't until, you know, should have turns out to be would have. Final: 33/27 the Kittys.

2018, #19M at unranked NfW and "This game should not be close."

I cannot tell you how many times an overwhelming favorite in CFB has failed to play up to it's capability and instead played down to the level of the underdog team and lost. It should never happen but these are kids and it happens. Do I expect it to happen? No, could it happen? Yes. CFB is fun for that reason.

[iam416]

2004 was the 2nd worst Ohio State team of the past 17 seasons. Total fucking garbage.

In 2013 they were pretty good and barely escaped Evanston.

[froot loops]

Clayton Thorson is by far the best QB they have faced, so there is that. If he gets hot, it is trouble, the Spartans found that out last year.

[hack]

All of them have been total fucking garbage for a lot longer than 17 years. However some of them have won more than others.

[Detroit Dan]

Jeff-- The one thing you didn't mention is that the Nebraska linebackers were keying on M's fullback, who went to the opposite side from where Higdon was taking the ball. That was the main trickery that Nebraska bit on.

I don't think the first couple of series are any more crucial than any others. There's always a chance for the team with lesser talent to outsmart the opposition on the first drive or two, especially since NfW has had an extra week to prepare. Usually, however, talent (not that Talent) prevails in the end.

Michigan is playing well at the right time and shouldn't have much trouble leading up to the meat of the schedule. I like the veteran leadership on this team. Many of the players were on the 2016 team that came close to making it to the playoffs. They experienced adversity last year but look like they may be back this year with a decent offense.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The NW Fe-Fi-Fo-Film is up at mgo. This sums up Northwestern's situation:



The gist of this is an OC that is worse than Al Borges, way worse if the first three games he's called are any indication. Borges had some good ideas but he could never turn them into decent plays. McCall has no ideas and can't turn these into any kind of efficient offense and hangs Thorson out to get bonked way more than any sane OC could possibly do to a decent QB who is coming off ACL surgery. It's bad.

Losing Larkin is huge. The article puts into perspective what he contributed to the offense even though McCall seems to be overly enamored with the passing game, one, the short game, to protect Thorson from aggressive defenses which Duke deploys and, two, the OL can't run block. Can a bye week fix this? No idea but we have knowledge of failed OL coaches who fucked up M's OL even though we thought they got better by the end of the year. That was dreaming. They didn't despite mgo's attempts to make it look like it did until Brian simply threw up his hands in disgust. So, the answer to that question is not likely.

Bottom line: this is a Northwestern football team with a lot of problems on offense and, according to Seth, their OC is the biggest one. Add that to a hobbled Thorson who is not any where near his 2016/17 greatness that had NFL scouts interested. That was before the Bowl in 2017 where he tore his ACL. Take Larkin out of the mix, add in 2 below average receivers and one good one - Nagel - a dysfunctional OL and this is a recipe for a curb stomping by Michigan.

Fitzgerald is going to design a game plan that will roll Thorson out a lot for plays that take a while to develop and will short throw it out of the Pistol to 4 wide sets hoping for one of the receivers to bounce open on a pick. This year they are about 65/35 pass/run which is not thier thing from years past. NW used to do some of the best RPO and PA plays in the league, maybe nationally, that screwed with their opponent's keys. It was very successful. I can't see them doing it very well with a run threat that doesn't exist with Larkin gone and Thorson not called on to do it for his own safety. M's D is going to present huge problems for them.

I don't think NW 's defense, as good as it's stats suggest it is, is going to present difficulties for M's offense. What I'm only guessing at makes me think that Harbaugh is going to deploy a pretty vanilla look to his offense. I hope this doesn't put M in a bind with a close game should weird shit happen in NW's favor. The weather on Saturday afternoon is still uncertain. It's either going to cool and dry or cold and rainy. I don't think it matters at all. There is some talk the NW fans and students aren't going to show up in protest of Northwestern's OC, McCall. If weather is a factor, it will be a small crowd of mostly M fans. I will be among them.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The Fe-Fi-Fo-Film Defense s up at mgo. Let me start by quoting what I said above:

What I'm only guessing at makes me think that Harbaugh is going to deploy a pretty vanilla look to his offense. I hope this doesn't put M in a bind with a close game should weird shit happen in NW's favor.

Let's next move to Seth's conclusion in the film study of NfW'a D.

This won't be the last time this year Michigan will have to go on the road to face a Quarters defense with a nasty DL, a great MLB, and questionably athletic safeties who play lead-footed against the run. It's not quite Michigan State's defense. But I think it will be good practice for it.

Let me explain this a bit. I watched all the videos Seth put up emphasizing the things NfW's defense does well, how they do it and which players excel (or don't) in doing it. Their DC is Mike Hankwitz, a former M player under Bo. Here's his bio from Wiki:

In his 25 years as a defensive coordinator, his defense has ranked in the nation's top 25 on 14 occasions. As coordinator, his teams have 36 wins over ranked programs, including nine wins over top-five clubs and two wins over #1-ranked teams. Hankwitz also has coached 14 first-team All-Americans, including four straight punters at Colorado, five conference defensive players of the year, 47 first-team all-conference choices and 12 team MVPs. He has recruited eight players who went on to play in the NFL. As a coordinator, Hankwitz has won 194 games and seven conference championships.

He's really good compared to his counterpart on offense, who is not. He also appears to have the tools (players) to do good things. As noted above he plays a quarters D much like MSU does hence the "good practice" comment Seth makes. What's Northwestern's weakness then? The Ss. Vulnerable to the PA and Duke proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt - although Hankwitz tightened things up a bit after Duke went up by 14.

Given the Kitty's strengths at LB and DT - these guys can be disruptive - "Gaz" as he is known (#51) is the SDE. He's a monster edge rusher. Think Winovich good. Runyan? Not so good. Not a good match-up for M. The other premium guy at DT is Sr. Jordan Thompson. Has M had trouble with stunts and twists against defenses not named Nebraska that are even marginally good? Let me check. Yes.

So, back to my quote from a previous post above. M is not likely to find the kind of run game they plastered Nebraska with v. NfW. Patterson threw 16 passes and the entire first team was out by the middle of the 3rd replaced by the two and three deep roster holders. That's not going to work v. Northwestern. Throw the ball. M isn't winning this game with a run-centric offense that plays down to the competition on the offensive side of the ball. I also don't think that JH's power game, in all it's variants, is going to look great v. Northwestern...... unless we see some RPO and a bunch of dink and dunk quick throws from Patterson. I'd be a little worried about a lot of PA given Runyan's weaknesses.

So, we'll see. I will hate it if I have to watch M battle in a game where the OU on the score is < 30, unless and of course, its 30 to nothing. I don't think it will be. But it can't be 16/10 in the 4th quarter with the Kitty's potentially able to steal a win.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-f...n-defense-2018

[Jeff Buchanan]

This 'il be it on NfW. The game which I'm going to attend will be played in dry weather unless it goes beyond 7pm CDT. Long preview at mgo. This is the important part:

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

A grinder. Michigan's ground game is going to have its issues against an excellent front seven but they'll probably hew to their season-long strategy, which is "get Patterson to the OSU game healthy at all costs."

A Northwestern lead could snap them to attention, but how likely is that? The Wildcats did have a week off and will probably come out with a script that'll be a blizzard of new stuff, and maybe that gets them down the field. Maybe Northwestern can cobble together a drive or two with Nagel and a Skowronek jump ball; maybe Michigan busts something that NW can take advantage of. Those are all ifs and add up to a mean of 10 points.

Patterson should be able to hit some deep balls against Northwestern's questionable safeties as Michigan executes ground and pound with some frippery to keep Gaziano from wrecking guys and maybe putting a linebacker in the wrong gap, and that'll be enough. The punting battle alone should be decisive.

Finalscore: 26-8.

I have no idea what the 8 points signifies.

https://mgoblog.com/content/preview-northwestern-2018

[Detroit Dan]

Northwestern is down this year, and Michigan is ascending. 40-0 seems about right. (closer than Nebraska)

[WM Wolverine]

32-7... NW can't move the ball and will need short fields and big plays to get in the red zone... Shea could have a big day passing if NW can keep slow down Ms rushing attack...

NW has had ST issues, Ms offense could have their share of short fields thanks to their defense and ST.

[Detroit Dan]

slow start. My 40-0 prediction in jeopardy

[WingsFan]

As usual Michigan had their Thanksgiving dinner in the visiting lockeroom.